According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic PP market showed a gradual downward trend in March, and the spot prices of various brands were reduced. As of April 1, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8983.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 37.15% compared with the same period last year.
Cause analysis
PP upstream propylene domestic market in March high callback. At the beginning of this month, it took advantage of the early international crude oil price rise, and was in the high shock operation for many years. Then, with the good cost side, the rise was blocked, and this month’s decline was concentrated between the 18th and the 26th. Now the price of propylene is stable, and some units are still under maintenance. In general, overseas production has recovered slightly, domestic inventory is low, current crude oil price is volatile, and downstream operation rate is acceptable, but the market is mostly cold, and propylene is still high in the near future. It is expected that the market will be stabilized due to the influence of crude oil.
March propylene market high down, PP cost side support general. At the beginning of this month, affected by the rapid resumption of work in China, the demand on the site expanded rapidly. According to reports, the overall average operating rate of domestic polypropylene plants was about 93% in the first quarter, which was at a historical high. Overseas market supply is still tight, there is a certain growth in export orders this month. However, in the latter half of the year, Dongming Petrochemical added 200000 tons / year of production capacity, plus 850000 tons / year of new production capacity in the first two months, the rapidly expanding supply is under pressure from domestic propylene prices. Downstream factories gradually conflict with high price orders, and they are not willing to accept the goods. Floor trading is not smooth, there is a price reduction operation at the end of the month.
In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 1, the mainstream offer of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) was similar to that of wire drawing materials, with a price of about 9216.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.81% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 14.92% compared with the same period last year. In March, fiber PP production was stable, accounting for about 13% of the total. The high price of goods affects the enthusiasm of the downstream to take goods. In addition, there are more and more spunbonded non-woven fabric manufacturers entering the market. At present, the shipping resistance of traders is increasing, and the profit margin is generally expanded.
Melt blown materials, the market in early March to undertake raw materials rose and melt blown PP outside the double boost market and opened higher, after the demand did not improve and the whole month stagflation, spot price shock down. As of April 1, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 11000 yuan / ton. Basically back to the level before the rise. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable. The new situation in some areas of Yunnan has not effectively stimulated the demand for medical protective equipment, and the domestic demand for epidemic prevention materials has been fixed at a stable level. The overseas epidemic situation is still unclear, and many countries have reported a number of new coronal variant strains, so it is inevitable that the compulsory mask policy will be implemented for a long time. However, in March, the market performance of meltblown materials in the outer market was also average, and even jumeilai and other high melt fiber products were down in the first ten days. On the whole, the profit of melt blown fabric manufacturing market is not ideal, the excess capacity has been eliminated, and the melt blown PP market has entered a stable period.
Future forecast
Business community PP analysts believe that: March domestic PP spot market trend fell mainly. The upstream propylene price recovered, but it is still high, and the support for PP cost side is acceptable. Recently, the market supply has expanded, the industry competition has intensified, and the high price spot trading is not good. In addition, the lack of positive feedback of demand under the high opening rate led to the unsatisfactory trend of PP this month. Now has entered the maintenance season, polymerization plant shipments are expected to shrink, it is expected that PP market trend or will be affected by the supply side and stop rising.
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