1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3033 yuan/ton on April 7th, and 2916 yuan/ton on April 15th. This week, the market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate dropped by 2.20%.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3966 yuan/ton on April 7th. On April 15th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3940 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.67%.
2、 Market analysis
Market quotation situation
As of April 15th, the market price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei region is around 2850-2950 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan region is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3900-4100 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3560-3660 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.
Cost side
This week, the domestic market for raw material phosphate ore remained stable and operated steadily. Among them, the spot circulation of high-grade phosphate ore is relatively tight, while the overall supply of medium and low grade phosphate ore is relatively loose. Currently, the overall performance of the downstream demand side for phosphate ore is average, with downstream users mainly engaged in rigid procurement, and new market transactions are relatively cautious. As of April 15th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton.
The domestic market price of raw material sulfur has increased this week. The sulfur refinery unit is operating normally and the manufacturer’s shipments are smooth. As of April 15th, the reference price for domestic sulfur market is 1203.33 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand side
This week, the operating rate of ammonium phosphate enterprises has declined, and some ammonium phosphate plants have started maintenance or planned maintenance, leading to a reduction in market supply. The situation of sustained sluggish demand has not improved, and market trading is weak. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are more cautious in procurement, with insufficient new orders and a strong wait-and-see attitude.
3、 Technical analysis
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since March 24, 2024, the 7-day moving average of ammonium phosphate has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. According to calculations, the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 30 day moving average above the 7-day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is only 13.37%. The probability of ammonium phosphate continuing to move downwards in the short term is relatively high.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since March 31, 2024, the 7-day moving average of diammonium phosphate has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. According to calculations, the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 30 day moving average above the 7-day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 24.46%. The probability of ammonium phosphate continuing to move downwards in the short term is relatively high.
4、 Future Market Forecast
According to analysts from Shengyi Society, spring plowing is nearing its end and the ammonium phosphate market is operating weakly. Although there is support on the cost side, downstream demand is not performing well, and the short-term market situation is difficult to improve. Technical analysis also shows a high probability of a downward trend. It is expected that the short-term market price of ammonium phosphate will continue to decline.
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