1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 5440 yuan/ton. Currently, the overall DMF market is stable, moderate, and strong. After a continuous sharp rise in mid March, this week it entered a stable price wait-and-see period, with manufacturers raising prices and downstream cautious procurement.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of the market, the sharp rise in raw material methanol has driven up costs, which is the main reason for this round of price increases. Supply and demand are tight, some equipment is undergoing maintenance/load reduction, and inventory is low; Downstream demand for replenishment is urgent, but high prices are suppressing speculative purchases. The domestic DMF market has been operating with strong prices recently, with mainstream quotes ranging from 5150-5700 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the beginning of the year. Affected by the supply-demand game, the market as a whole shows a phased rebound trend after a low and narrow range oscillation. The average price at the end of February 2026 starts at 3940 yuan/ton, and DMF prices continue to rise, with an increase of over 36%. This wave of increase is mainly driven by enterprise price hikes, cost support, and short-term export orders.
Supply side: The total domestic production capacity remains at 1.77 million tons per year (2025 data), and the industry operating rate has been running at a low level of around 40% for a long time. The situation of severe overcapacity has not changed. There will be no new production capacity investment from 2025 to 2026, and many expansion projects have been put on hold, easing further downward pressure.
Demand side: The downstream main force is polyurethane slurry (accounting for over 50%), electronics, pharmaceuticals and other fields. At present, domestic demand is still weak, and downstream demand is mostly replenished on demand. However, strong exports have become an important support – the export volume will increase by 26.10% year-on-year in 2025, mainly sold to South Korea, Japan, and India.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market will continue to maintain a low volatility pattern, with limited upward potential and overall market supply and demand balance.
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