Technical prediction of cyclohexanone market: probability of improvement increases
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, since March 3, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend, but currently the two moving averages are moving in opposite directions. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 47.82%.
At present, the price of cyclohexanone is at a mid high point in one year, a mid high point in two years, and a mid low point in three years. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of cyclohexanone in the past three years is 9401.25 yuan/kg, with a median value of 9155.16 yuan/kg, a minimum value of 7988.89 yuan/kg, and a maximum value of 10321.43 yuan/kg. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 1654.86 yuan/kg, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -677.68 yuan/kg.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 8th to 16th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9643 yuan/ton to 962 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.19% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 0.71%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.60%. The raw material pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the cost pressure remains unchanged. In the early stage, many downstream chemical fibers have been centralized for procurement. Recently, many downstream chemical fibers have followed up as needed. There is abundant supply of cyclohexanone in spot, but the cyclohexanone market lacks positive boost, resulting in weak market growth and overall narrow consolidation and operation.
On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuates at a high level. As of April 16th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyishe is 8707.17 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is close to 70%, which is at a relatively low level. The weekly operating load of cyclohexanone is 69.39%, and the weekly production is 105300 tons, which has increased compared to the previous cycle. The supply of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.
On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. In April, there was an increase in maintenance plans for caprolactam, and some units have recently reduced production, leading to stronger supply side support and an increase in caprolactam market prices. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.
In the future market forecast, pure benzene is operating at a high level, with no reduction in cost pressure, weak downstream demand, stable and abundant spot supply in the market, and no plans to reduce production. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will remain stagnant in the short term.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |