According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9314 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 9560.00 yuan/ton on April 17th, an increase of 2.64%. The current price has increased by 12.69% year-on-year.
styrene
The market price of styrene continued to rise in the first half of April. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has continued to rise in the past three months, and the recent market trend has been good. International oil prices have risen for six consecutive years, with pure benzene prices rising at high levels, strong cost support, low port inventories, and still expected to decline. Downstream terminal demand is mainly in demand, while the styrene market continues to rise.
Cost side
In the first half of April, the overall increase in pure benzene in China was good. Affected by the continuous rise in crude oil, the cost support for pure benzene is strong. In April, many domestic refineries underwent centralized maintenance, resulting in a decline in supply. Most refineries in Shandong region had low inventories, and the quoted prices continued to rise. As of April 17th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in the Shandong market is 8800 yuan/ton. Compared to the beginning of the year, currently pure benzene is still in the high range, which can provide some cost support for styrene.
Supply side
In April, there were more inspections of the styrene plant, and due to profit recovery, the operating rate of styrene increased by 67% compared to the previous month. At present, the inventory of styrene in East China ports is 147000 tons, a decrease compared to the previous month. There is still an expectation of destocking, and domestic supply remains at a relatively low level, which is beneficial for the styrene market.
Demand side
In the first half of April, all three downstream markets of styrene rose. The PS market has seen a slight increase, driven by the demand for home appliance packaging. The fast material circulation speed in East and South China has accelerated, and the overall transaction atmosphere has accelerated. The market is expected to rise. In the first half of April, domestic ABS prices rose at a high level. From a fundamental perspective, the upstream three materials of ABS are expected to maintain a high level of support in the future market, with strong expectations for the cost side support level of ABS. The ABS polymerization plant is still operating at a relatively low level, with supply tending to be tight. EPS is supported by the cost side, and the terminal air conditioning industry is entering a peak season. EPS is rising in the market under dual positive conditions.
Technical analysis
There is a high possibility of an increase in the future market of styrene, and spot prices may continue to rise. According to the prediction model of the Business Society Commodity Analysis System, since December 17, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 32.24%.
Historical price monitoring [low to medium]: Since the beginning of 2024, the price of styrene has been continuously in an upward trend. The current monitoring positions are 1-year high, 2-year medium high, and 3-year medium high. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ABS in the past three years is 8922.28 yuan/ton, with a median value of 9145.95 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 7163.33 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 11128.57 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 2386.67 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -1578.57 yuan/ton.
According to the styrene data analyst from Business Society, the recent arrival of styrene at East China ports has been relatively low, continuing the trend of destocking. EPS and PS production have increased, and the downstream industry chain ecology has improved. The supply of raw material pure benzene is low, and the market is operating at a high level. Business Society analysts expect a slight increase in the styrene market.
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