1、 Price data
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According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 18th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8189.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.77% compared to September 11th at 8126.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8200 yuan/ton.
As of September 18th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 8091.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.90% compared to September 11th at 8019.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 8100 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Recently, the market for refined naphtha has been fluctuating and rising, with the rise of international crude oil driving the domestic naphtha market. Terminal restructuring is just about to be released, and refineries are actively shipping. However, intermediaries have a strong wait-and-see attitude and operate cautiously.
Upstream: The international crude oil market has continued to rise recently. The main reason is that the expectation of supply tightening has overshadowed concerns about slowing economic growth and increasing US inventory. Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended their plan to reduce crude oil supply by 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year, as the sustained supply gap caused by the production reduction is significant, which may lead to tight crude oil supply in the fourth quarter; According to a report released by the EIA on Wednesday, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4 million barrels last week, with analysts expecting a decrease of approximately 1.9 million barrels; The demand for gasoline and diesel in the United States remains strong, especially with a significant increase in diesel futures.
Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the international crude oil price has been operating at a high level recently, with the cost of toluene rising and the factory price of enterprises rising. As of September 18th, the price of toluene was 8380 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.70% compared to September 11th at 8240 yuan/ton; The price of mixed xylene was 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.99% compared to 8530 yuan/ton on September 11th. In terms of PX, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the operating rate of domestic PX is over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, the spot supply is relatively normal, and the external price trend of PX has increased due to the rise of crude oil. As of September 18, the price of PX is at 9500 yuan/ton.
3、 Future Market Forecast
Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the recent rise in international crude oil has boosted the domestic naphtha market, and terminal restructuring is just needed to release, with refineries actively pushing up prices. It is expected that the local refined naphtha market will slightly increase in the near future.
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