Spot aluminum prices rose 3.67% during the week
According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on November 26 was 19233.33 yuan / ton, up 3.67% from the average market price of 18553.33 yuan / ton on November 19.
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At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the high and volatile operation range in the early stage. At the peak of this year (October 19, 2021), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 124240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 20.65% recently. Based on the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021), the cumulative increase rate was reduced to 22.30%.
Production data in October
According to the data of the International Aluminum Association, the global primary aluminum output in October 2021 was 5689kt, compared with 5617000t in the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 1.28%. From January to October, the global primary aluminum output reached 56295000 tons, up from 54121 tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 4.02%.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of electrolytic aluminum in October 2021 was 3.132 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 32.368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%.
In October, the aluminum output was 4.84 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 49.669 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%.
In October, the output of aluminum alloy was 911000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 9.245 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%.
In October, China’s alumina output was 6.291 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 65.153 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%.
List of import and export data in October
According to the new data of the General Administration of customs, in October 2021, China exported 479600 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%; From January to October, the cumulative export was 4.547 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%.
In October, China imported 297000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, with a year-on-year increase of 15.8%; From January to October, the total import was 2572300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%.
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In October, China imported 9.54 million tons of aluminum ore and its concentrate, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%; From January to October, the cumulative import of aluminum ore and its concentrate was 91.06 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%.
Positive factors this week
In China, the real estate policy is relaxed, and the news is good for market expectations; On the international news front, the rising US inflation combined with the Indonesian President’s reiteration of the ban on bauxite export in 2022 boosted market sentiment.
At present, in the domestic spot market, the overall trading is weak. Although the cargo holders are active in shipping, the downstream procurement is cautious and mainly bargain hunting and on-demand procurement. Recent inventory is at a high level year-on-year, with a slight decline in ring ratio.
Future forecast
In the early stage, the aluminum price fell rapidly, and recently the price began to bottom and stabilize. However, at present, the actual demand is still relatively general, and the social inventory is still high. It is expected to stabilize in the short term, but the rising space is narrowed, and the operation range is 18800-19500 yuan / ton.
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