On June 11, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of the 11th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price talks in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price has risen, up to 11 days, the market price is 1760 yuan/ton. The rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of liquid ammonia in upstream raw materials has slightly declined. As of 11 days, the price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region has maintained in the range of 3200-3600 yuan/ton, while that in the northwest region is around 2900-3100 yuan/ton. The rising price trend of cruise raw materials has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

Market Review

According to a large number of data monitored by business associations, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong continued to rise this week. The average price of dichloromethane in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 3100 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 3100 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.65% in the week.

quotations analysis

Product: This week, due to the tight supply of dichloromethane market as a whole, the quotation of enterprises continued to rise, enterprises and traders shipped smoothly, but the downstream market demand is still flat, mostly just needed. At present, the quotation of bulk water remittance in Shandong is around 3150 yuan/ton, 3600-3700 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and 3550 yuan/ton in Jiangxi. In terms of start-up, at present, 50% of Jinling chemical plant is in operation; Jinmao Dongying stops and overhauls until the end of June; 60% of Shanxi chemical plant is in operation; Jiangsu science and culture plant is in normal operation; Jiangxi science and culture plant is in normal operation, etc.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the domestic natural gas market is weak, and the trading atmosphere is low. At the beginning of the week, the average market price is 3543 yuan/ton, the average weekend price is 3526 yuan/ton, with a drop of 0.47% in the week. The supply of liquid chlorine market is tight, the downstream market demand is weak, and the overall performance of the industry is stable. Enterprises overreport 400-700 yuan/ton. Domestic R410a market shocks and adjustments, refrigerant downstream market just needs, market trading atmosphere is still acceptable.

Future Market Forecast

Business Club methane chloride data analysts believe that there is still a big gap in the supply side of the dichloromethane market, which is difficult to make up in the short term. The downstream market just needs to buy, which is good for supporting dichloromethane prices. The dichloromethane market is expected to soar in the near future.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic toluene Market as a whole was weak last week. The price of toluene fell compared with last week. At the beginning of the week, the price of enterprises declined and remained stable at the weekend. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5112 yuan per ton, while at the end of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5002 yuan per ton, with a decline of 2.16%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Toluene market prices fell earlier this week. Due to the influence of the Dragon Boat Festival holidays on the weekend, the mainstream turnover in the market is around 4950 yuan/ton. Toluene manufacturers are losing money. Port stocks in East China are around 53,000 tons, up 0.16 million tons from 51,300 tons on May 30 (last Thursday). Spring inspection of domestic toluene factories has been completed, parking devices have been started, and the market supply has increased. Some downstream units of toluene were put into operation in July, and it is expected that demand side will restrict the rise of toluene price in June.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, affected by the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and trade wars, European and American crude oil futures fell to their lowest level since January this week. Brent crude oil range was between $60.63 and $64.49 per ton, with a weekly decline of about 5.99%.

On the downstream side, the price trend of domestic p-xylene market is declining, downstream PTA plant is unstable, upstream cost surface oil prices continue to decline, naphtha and MX are difficult to support, cost demand is double negative, short-term PX price is weak; on the TDI market, end users are mostly stockpiling in the market at present, demand has been obviously overdrawn, follow-up market is difficult to say optimistic, while TDI suppliers are large. After bulk delivery, inventory pressure is likely to weaken. Under the supply-demand game, the TDI market ends weakly and steadily. Overall demand is constrained by the rise in toluene Market prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of toluene in the branch of business society and chemical industry believe that in general, the market of toluene is still expected to be weak next week. Focus on whether US crude oil can sustain $50/barrel, vulnerable shocks are more likely; downstream PX device starts, the market mainly focuses on Sinochem Hongrun PX device starts, but at present other major downstream purchasing intentions are general, the buying atmosphere is insufficient, inventory continues to be high, the market is in a stalemate stage.

On June 5, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 5th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was between 1900 and 2050 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The price trend of ammonium nitrate in the field is temporarily stable.

Recently, domestic nitric acid prices have risen, with the market price of 1760 yuan/ton as of the 5th day. The rising trend of nitric acid prices has a positive impact on the market of ammonium nitrate. The price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of liquid ammonia in upstream raw materials has risen slightly, and the price quoted by manufacturers in northern areas has maintained in the range of 3200-3600 yuan/ton as of the 5th day. The price of raw materials in the upstream is rising, which has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

Price Trend

In May 2019, the domestic market of 1_antimony ingots shook down, with the average price of domestic market at 43250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 38875 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 10.12%.

On June 3, the Sb Commodity Index was 54.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.11% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 15.20% from its low of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: As for antimony concentrate, the cost of domestic antimony ore and antimony ingot raw materials has been further reduced. Most manufacturers have saved costs by purchasing Russian antimony ore instead. The pressure of shipment of antimony oxide raw materials separated from domestic antimony ore and lead plant is very high, and the price continues to decline. Antimony trioxide Market follows the trend of antimony ingot this month, and the price fluctuation is lower. At the end of the month, the average price of antimony trioxide was 99.5% at 36 000 yuan/ton and 99.8% at 37 500 yuan/ton. This month’s trading situation as a whole is light, downstream wait-and-see, buy less fun.

Domestic market: Antimony ingot market shocks fell by 10.12% this month, although manufacturers and traders have a strong price sentiment, but by the actual bad trading pressure, downstream market is still short, buy is not strong, prices go down. Near the end of the month, the price of antimony ingots has broken the 40,000 yuan/ton barrier as a whole. Although the tender sentiment of producers and suppliers is strong, the purchasing intention of downstream is still low, lacking the support of transaction, and the price is difficult to maintain stability. By the end of the month, 2_high bismuth antimony ingots are 370 yuan/ton, 2_low bismuth antimony ingots are 380 yuan/ton, 1_antimony ingots are 39250 yuan/ton, 0_antimony ingots are 50 yuan/ton.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Because in recent years, under the pressure of capital, some enterprises can reduce the range of inquiries with good trading terms to close the transaction. With little change in supply and demand, the antimony market price is expected to continue to decline slowly next week, and suppliers will continue to wait and see.