1、 Review of Potassium Chloride Market Trends This Week
price trend
According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) on April 3rd was 3616.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month, and the price remained flat for several consecutive days. From a longer-term perspective, starting from around 3500 yuan/ton in early January 2026, the price gradually climbed to a temporary high point from the end of February to early March (with a peak of about 3696 yuan/ton in the chart), then showed a high-level correction and entered a volatile pattern, currently fluctuating narrowly within the range of 3610-3620 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand fundamentals
Supply side: This week, the domestic potassium chloride production side maintained a high load, with a weekly operating rate of about 62.5% and a weekly output of about 106500 tons, a month on month increase of about 2.3%. In terms of domestic production, leading enterprises such as Salt Lake Corporation and Zangge Potassium Fertilizer have fully resumed work and production, with production facilities running smoothly. Potassium fertilizer products continue to be offline and transported nationwide.
In terms of imports, the domestic import volume of potassium fertilizer continues to grow. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the import volume of potassium fertilizer increased by 16.2% year-on-year, and the monthly average import volume of potassium chloride reached 1.44 million tons (physical quantity). As of April 2nd, the total port inventory of imported potassium chloride at the port was 2.4291 million tons, an increase of 0.57% compared to the previous month. Although the port’s delivery volume continued to be fast, some ports still had a small amount of new goods to supplement, and the total amount slightly increased. The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continues to be implemented. As of March 30th, the amount of guaranteed supply during the spring plowing period has reached 2.01 million tons, effectively ensuring market supply.
Demand side: Relatively limited support. The weekly operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is about 50.6%, which is at a high level. However, their procurement of potassium fertilizer is mainly based on on-demand replenishment mode, which makes it difficult to effectively stimulate the trade market. At present, it is the end of spring plowing and fertilizer use, and the demand in Northeast China is coming to an end. Border trade and China Europe freight trains continue to receive goods, further intensifying market competition for goods. The flat demand is the direct reason why prices are difficult to strengthen at present.
2、 Analyzing the market price of potassium chloride using the Business Society’s spot trading platform
Location characteristics: Potassium chloride is at a high level in the short term (10/20 days), with significant overselling; In the mid-term (30/60/90 days), it is at a medium low level, showing an overall mismatch pattern of short, high, medium, and low. The price is at a high level during the annual cycle, approaching the high point of the year, with limited space above and sufficient support below, indicating upward pressure.
Trend characteristics: The current price is intertwined with multiple moving averages, the previous upward trend has ended, the long and short forces are balanced, the market has entered a transitional period of oscillation, there is no clear direction at present, and the risk of falling back still exists in the short term due to the suppression of moving averages.
Buy judgment: 10/20 day cycle high, no buy signal; The price moving average is entangled and has not formed an upward bullish pattern, which does not meet the buying conditions.
Based on the comprehensive conclusion, potassium chloride is currently neutral and bearish. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see approach and wait for the price to stabilize at the mid to low levels in the medium term and for the moving average to form a bullish trend before choosing an opportunity to operate.
integrated forecasting
In the short term, domestic potassium chloride prices are expected to continue a stable to weak pattern. Domestic potassium has stable production and limited price fluctuations; Due to the rebound of port inventory and the release of national reserves, imported potassium may experience price looseness in some areas. On April 3rd, the benchmark price remained unchanged from the beginning of the month, indicating a short-term long short balance. However, insufficient support from the demand side and continued efforts to ensure supply policies will limit the upward potential of prices. If international shipping costs continue to rise or import arrivals are delayed, it may temporarily push up the price of imported potassium, but domestic policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices will limit the increase.
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