1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency, on December 30, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7000 yuan / ton, with a slight fluctuation in the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. This month’s carbon black market mainly fluctuated.
After the carbon black market fell sharply in 2018, it is difficult for the price to rise again. In 2019, the price fluctuation is not big and the market will not rise or fall.
2、 Market analysis
Industrial chain:
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
From the perspective of raw materials, starting from the middle of October, the coal tar market showed a downward trend, and the price reached a low point within the year. There was a slight increase at the end of November, but not a big increase. As of the end of November, the price is still lower than the end of last month. In the later stage, although the coal tar market is in short supply at this stage, it is expected that the price increase of coal tar in December will be limited and the market price of carbon black will not be adequately supported due to the difficulty of changing the weak situation of the downstream carbon black and coal asphalt.
In terms of demand, the main downstream operating rate is lower than the same period last year. In November, the operating rate of all steel tire and semi steel tire industry was higher than that in October. However, compared with the same period last year, the operating rate of half steel tire enterprises was slightly lower in 11 this year; the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 5.54% lower than the same period last year, with a large drop. On the whole, the downstream demand in November this year is lower than that in November last year. It is expected that the starting of tires in December will be stable, while the demand for carbon black is still weak.
listed company:
In the first three quarters of 2019, the net profit of domestic carbon black listed companies all showed a significant negative growth. Black cat’s operating net profit fell by 128.84%, the only one of the four listed companies with negative net profit. Among the listed enterprises, Jinneng technology still has the highest operating revenue and the smallest decline in net profit. Its operating revenue is 6.208 billion yuan, down 2.24% year-on-year; its net profit is 593 million yuan, down 35.94% year-on-year. Shanxi Yongdong is the only private enterprise with a positive growth in its business income, which is 2.133 billion yuan, up 13.42% year on year.
| PVA |
In the first three quarters of 2019, the profits of domestic carbon black enterprises plummeted or even lost money, which was mainly affected by the low delivery price of domestic carbon black, while the low price of carbon black was mainly affected by overcapacity, homogenization and vicious competition, high-temperature coal tar price relative to carbon black price, insufficient consumption power in the automobile industry, low tire market demand, passive bargaining power and poor unity, and low international crude oil price Shock and other factors.
3、 Future forecast
Carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society thinks: carbon black market downturn will continue at the end of the year.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |