1、 Price trend
According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of diammonium phosphate on December 23 was 2250 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of diammonium phosphate on December 31 was 2200 yuan / ton, down 2.22%. On December 31, DAP commodity index was 65.62, which was flat compared with yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 36.28% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
2、 Market analysis
Product: this week, the demand for DAP is weak, the trend of DAP is declining, the market is light, and the manufacturers continue to wait and see. Maintenance of some enterprise devices. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province is quoted at 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province is quoted at 2250-2500 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Northwest China is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton.
Industry chain: this week, the phosphorus ore market continued to maintain stable consolidation, weak operation, and the supply of goods was basically normal. At present, the price of phosphate rock in Guizhou has remained stable as a whole, and the price of low-grade phosphate rock of some manufacturers has slightly decreased by 30-50 yuan / ton. This week, the trend of domestic sulfur price was reduced by a narrow range, and the quotation of sulfur for individual refineries was temporarily stable according to their own shipment. On the port side, the inventory is still high, with small factories and traders occasionally entering the market for enquiries and relatively limited transactions. In the past week, refineries around the country continued to maintain low inventory operation, because environmental protection and production restriction problems still exist, downstream plants still maintained low level of operation, and major production enterprises priced down to ease the inventory sales pressure. At present, the market of liquid ammonia has maintained a narrow adjustment. The enterprises mainly sell products at guaranteed prices, and some of them give way to profits. Most of the units are converted to urea production, and the output of liquid ammonia is controlled to decline, so as to balance the overstock of the manufacturers’ inventory.
| PVA |
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 51st week of 2019 (12.23-12.27), there are 22 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are respectively trichloromethane (10.53%), epichlorohydrin (4.42%) and propane (3.82%). There are 21 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are sulfur (- 5.63%), phosphate rock (- 3.20%), lithium carbonate (- 3.06%). This week’s average was 0.11%.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts of DAP of business association think that the market of DAP is weak in supply and demand, weak in export market and weak in market trading, which leads to the continuous downturn of prices. It is expected that the market of diammonium phosphate will not change in the later period, and it is still weak. It is suggested to pay attention to the dynamic situation of raw materials and downstream demand.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |