1、 Price trend
In December 2019, the butadiene market was weak and declined. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of butadiene at the beginning of the month was 8834 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month was 8312 yuan / ton, down 5.91% in the month, 15.50% lower than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
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Product: in December, the domestic butadiene market was weak. At the beginning of the month, affected by the sudden accident of TPC device in the United States, the suspension of export of northeast manufacturers, the short-term shutdown of Shenhua Ningmei and Nanjing Chengzhi device, the market experienced short-term speculation, but the downstream follow-up was limited. With the restart of export in the first ten days of December, the market continues to decline. In the last ten days of the month, the price of northeast goods is relatively low, which just needs to be followed up in succession to boost the downstream part, and the market situation shows some signs of stabilizing. However, at the end of the month, the new equipment of Zhejiang Petrochemical was successfully put into trial operation, and the supply side was expected to be short, so the market continued to be weak.
In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China continued to decrease by 400 yuan / ton to 8500 yuan / ton; due to the increase of pipeline transportation, North Huajin butadiene was suspended for export in the second half of the month, with the base price of node bidding at 8310 yuan / ton as of the 16th day, down 600 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; Fushun Petrochemical’s base price of bidding at 7800 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton on a month on month basis basis; Inner Mongolia Jiutai’s listing price at 7600 yuan / ton as of the 30th day, on a month on month basis The price of coal butadiene in Shenhua Ningxia fell by 610 yuan / ton to 7140 yuan / ton on a month on month basis, and the 100000 ton / year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Jiangsu Province was shut down for a short period from 16th to 26th. Nanjing Chengzhi butadiene plant was shut down for minor inspection from November 27 to December 3, and shut down from December 22 to 27; Puyang Bluestar 50000t / a butadiene plant was shut down from December 27 to 31, with a small amount of inventory for export; Zhejiang Petrochemical added 200000t / a butadiene plant to produce qualified butadiene products on December 30, and the formal operation of the plant in the later stage needs further attention.
Industrial chain: SBR: domestic SBR market rose first and then fell in December. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw material butadiene was adjusted at a high level, and the supply price also increased by a large margin. The cost side and the news side obviously boosted the confidence of the operators. Moreover, the volume of orders issued by the sales companies was still tight, the on-the-spot circulation was limited, the speculation atmosphere was gradually rising, the operators were reluctant to sell, and the market premium margin was constantly enlarged. However, the requirements for environmental protection in the north are still severe, and the start-up of some terminal plants is still not optimistic, and the annual close is near. Downstream enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials, and the overall demand is weak. In addition, the following butadiene market is weak, both Tianjiao futures and spot stocks are falling, and the cost side and news side are turning to the guidance of the short side. Therefore, after the middle of the month, the styrene butadiene market is declining in a narrow range, and the market offer is gradually posted In the near ex factory price and falling price market, there is no lack of some profit taking companies to ship with the trend, and the overall trading is still in a stalemate; there are not many stocks at the end of the month, and the market price is stable near the supply price, and the demand has not changed significantly.
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In December, the domestic br market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the supply price of Shunding has been pushed up one after another, and the short-term shutdown and maintenance of Maoming and Yanshan Shunding units have been carried out. In addition, the price of butadiene and benzene has been rising all the way after the restriction of butadiene and benzene, so Shunding market has increased the price one after another, and the range of price increase has been slightly enlarged. After entering the middle of the month, the price of raw materials gradually decreased, Shanghai Rubber shockwave finishing support was general, the domestic mainstream Shunding unit started to return to normal, the demand did not change, Shunding market price gradually weakened, and the early premium range also gradually narrowed. In the last ten days of the month, the start-up of tires was not as expected, and under the environmental protection situation, some other downstream factories showed signs of parking, etc., “do not buy down” mentality guidance, the demand side became weaker; the domestic butadiene price also fell step by step; after the bad news intensified, the price of Shunding became weaker, and continued to show signs of hanging upside down, and the low profit plate significantly dragged down the trading; the factory supply price of Shunding was in a favorable trend Lower, the market also fell after finishing mainly.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in December 2019, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there were 8 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities were propane (27.23%), crude benzene (11.66%) and pure benzene (10.94%). There are a total of 50 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, and 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the top 3 falls are sulfur (-17.03%), lithium hydroxide (-13.50%) and hydrochloric acid (-12.64%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 0.87%.
3、 Future forecast
In the future, good news: the downstream synthetic rubber construction is OK, and the latex industry just needs to replenish before the Spring Festival holiday. On the negative side, there are plenty of imported ships arriving at the port, sufficient supply in the spot market, smooth commissioning of new production capacity, release of production in the later period, and the intention of northern export manufacturers to reduce inventory before the Spring Festival holiday. In the short term, the northern manufacturers have a relatively abundant supply of goods for export, and it is difficult to form an effective support for the downstream rigid demand. In addition, the domestic butadiene market is still under pressure due to the arrival of foreign ships. At the end of this month, Zhejiang Petrochemical plant was successfully commissioned, and it was reported that Dalian Hengli plant also had a commissioning plan in January. The supply of butadiene in the medium and long term will increase significantly, which will affect the expectation of some businesses. In January, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the intention of replenishment of downstream positions before the festival and the supplier’s “light inventory” exist at the same time. Under the pressure of supply, the butadiene analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic butadiene market will continue to explore the possibility of a slight decline in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to the market supply and demand and the internal and external market information guidance.
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