I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, since June, the domestic cobalt market has been unable to rise, cobalt price shocks have been adjusted, small shocks have fallen, and the overall cobalt price has not been able to rebound. As of June 17, the cobalt price was 240500.00 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from 242333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Compared with the previous period, the cobalt price fell slightly in June, and the cobalt market remained basically stable.

II. Market Analysis

MB quotation in the international market fluctuated and fell in June. The global market of cobalt was cold. The international price of cobalt was unable to rise. The falling international price of cobalt dragged down the domestic market of cobalt.

The cobalt price in LME market fell after June, and the international cobalt market lost its momentum to rise. The global cobalt market was obviously short, while the domestic market was dragged down.

Sales of Smart Wearable Devices Increased

On June 11, IDC consulted and released the Quarterly Tracking Report of China’s Wearable Equipment Market, which said that in the first quarter of 2019, China’s wearable equipment market shipped 19.5 million units, an increase of 34.7% over the same period last year. Basic wearable devices (wearable devices that do not support third-party applications) grew by 25.5% year-on-year, while smart wearable devices grew by 84.6% year-on-year. The sales of intelligent wearable equipment have increased greatly, which is beneficial to the growth of demand in cobalt market.

Sales of New Energy Vehicles

In the afternoon of June 12, the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association showed that in May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 112,000 and 104,000 respectively, up 16.9% and 1.8% respectively from the same period last year. From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 480,000 and 464,000 respectively, up 46.0% and 41.5% respectively from the same period last year. New energy automobile sales increased in May, but the growth rate further slowed down. The overall downward trend of industry production and sales has not been effectively alleviated. The demand of cobalt market is lower than expected, which is bad for cobalt market.

Increased demand for cobalt due to increased sales of mobile phones

According to the data of CITIC, in May 2019, the total shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market increased by 1.2% and 4.8% year on year. From January to May 2019, the total shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market dropped by 4.8% compared with the same period in 18 years. Although the sales of mobile phones in 2019 still declined compared with the same period in 18 years, the steady increase in sales of mobile phones in April and May brought good profits to the market and increased sales of mobile phones. The demand of dynamic cobalt market is favorable to the demand of future cobalt market.

policies and regulations

On June 6, the State Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecological Environment and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Renewal and Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods and Unobstructed Recycling of Resources (2019-2020) (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”), which takes the structural reform of the supply side as the main line, and focuses on promoting the upgrading of automobile, household appliances and consumer electronics products from four aspects of “consolidation, enhancement, promotion and smoothness”. Promote the recycling of old products. The introduction of the scheme has obvious advantages for automobile and household appliances industries. It is expected that the demand for cobalt in automobile and household appliances industries will rise in the future, and the demand for cobalt in the future will rise, which will have obvious advantages for cobalt price. However, the impact of policies and regulations has a certain lag, and the cobalt market has insufficient momentum to rise in the short term. But the overall future cobalt market is good.

3. Future prospects:

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for business associations, international cobalt price shocks fell in June, global cobalt market performance was weak, domestic cobalt market was bullish, domestic cobalt market fell slightly, but there was a stable basis, cobalt price fell slightly. The performance of new energy automobiles is sluggish, and there is a big gap for Cobalt City. However, the recovery of mobile phone market and the rapid growth of smart wearable devices make up for the shortage of new energy vehicles, and the demand of cobalt market is growing steadily. Overall, the demand of cobalt market is growing steadily. At present, the global cobalt market is still in a state of oversupply. Cobalt market is not motivated to rise. However, with the issuance of 5G mobile phone licenses in China, 5G renewal has been put on the agenda, and the national consumption upgrading policy is also better for cobalt market. In the future, the price of cobalt is at a low level, and there is little room for the price to fall, but the overall supply of cobalt is in excess of demand, and the driving force of cobalt price rise is insufficient. However, with the implementation of domestic policies, domestic cobalt price rebounds or becomes the lowest point of cobalt price in June, and the turning point of stopping the decline and rebounding.

On June 17, the fluorite commodity index was 107.46, up 1.98 points from yesterday, down 15.71% from 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 118.37% from 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices have risen, with an average price of 3062.5 yuan per ton as of 17 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants have been operating normally, mines and flotation plants have been operating normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has risen recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market has risen on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of the 17th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2900-3100 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3000-3200 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3000-3200 yuan/ton.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11880 yuan/ton as of the 17th day. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite is weakened and the price fluctuation of fluorite is running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

Price Trend

According to the business association’s data, the domestic dry-process aluminium fluoride market has been running steadily this week, with an average market price of 9333 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 9333 yuan/ton at the end of the week, which is flat compared with last week.

II. Market Analysis

The price of aluminium fluoride has been stable this week: at present, the price of aluminium fluoride in Henan is between 9000 and 9200 yuan/ton, while that in Shandong is between 9000 and 9200 yuan/ton. Zhengzhou Zerun Energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 9000 yuan per ton of aluminium fluoride, Shandong Luzeng Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 10500 yuan per ton of aluminium fluoride, Henan Zhongse Dongfang Shaoxing Industrial Co., Ltd. quoted 9500 yuan per ton of aluminium fluoride.

Industry chain: The price trend of hydrofluoric acid has risen slightly this week. Enterprises reflect the current shortage of spot supply of hydrofluoric acid on the site. Recently, the situation of on-site purchases has improved. Some enterprises have a low start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plants and a small rise in ex-factory prices. Recently, the start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plants is general, and the supply in the field is tight. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is 11500-12000 yuan/ton. The price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market ranges from 11500 to 12500 yuan/ton. Recently, domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices rose slightly. However, the downstream market demand for aluminium fluoride is general, and the market price of aluminium fluoride has not yet started the rising mode. The market price of dry-process aluminium fluoride has been running steadily this week.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Aluminum Fluoride Industry of Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid continues to rise, and the price of Aluminum Fluoride is expected to improve next week.

On June 12, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of the 13th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price talks in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price has risen, up to 13th, the market price is 1760 yuan/ton. The rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of liquid ammonia in upstream raw materials has slightly declined. As of 13th, the price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region is maintained in the range of 3000-3400 yuan/ton, while that in the northwest region is around 290-3000 yuan/ton. The declining price trend of cruise raw materials has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

On June 12, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 56.45, down 0.32 points from yesterday, down 53.01% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 16.58% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has declined slightly, the market of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has maintained a weak position, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been hindered, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5400-5500 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, and the market is weak. The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 5900 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price in the market is 6000 yuan/ton. The quotation is declining, and the port’s market is general. The price of raw materials mixed xylene in upstream is lower, the turnover of phthalic anhydride is general, the stock of phthalic anhydride in port is low, the quotation of phthalic outer plate is lower, the cost of imported phthalic anhydride is oscillating, the actual transaction price is detailed, the price trend in upstream is declining, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is declining. DOP downstream price is lower, DOP downstream demand is general, customer procurement enthusiasm is not good, DOP mainstream transaction price is about 7300 yuan/ton, DOP downstream price is still under pressure, downstream price is slightly lower, demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, phthalic anhydride market price is slightly lower, it is expected that the later market price of phthalic anhydride will be about 5750 yuan/ton.