Since 2026, the natural rubber market has fluctuated and risen, with the price center steadily shifting upwards compared to 2025. As of April 7th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16933 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.37% from 15341 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.
From January to February, overseas rubber cutting was not smooth due to weather conditions, and coupled with the domestic cutting period, natural rubber raw material prices remained high both domestically and internationally, providing cost support for natural rubber; In addition, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of downstream tire companies has declined, raw material consumption has slowed down, and coupled with the concentration of imported goods at ports, as of March 29, 2026, China’s natural rubber social inventory is 1.35 million tons, which has formed a negative pressure on natural rubber; Under the comprehensive influence, the price of natural rubber fluctuated slightly upwards.
After the Spring Festival, downstream tire production has significantly increased, supported by the demand for natural rubber. As of the week of April 3, the operating load of domestic tire companies for semi steel tires was 7.8%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises is 7.2%; Starting from late March, Yunnan and Hainan production areas began early trial cutting, but the overall increase in new rubber supply was limited, and the price of essential support rubber fell first and then rose.
On the supply side, global production growth is limited. ANRPC data shows that global natural rubber production is expected to reach 15.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. However, Thailand and Indonesia are experiencing weak production due to aging rubber trees, diseases, and labor shortages. On the demand side, the global automotive and tire industry is experiencing a mild recovery, driven by domestic policies on new energy vehicles and the trade in of old cars to drive tire consumption. The global consumption is expected to be 15.6 million tons, with a supply-demand gap of about 400000 tons. For six consecutive years, the supply has exceeded demand, forming the core support for rubber prices.
Market forecast: From the spot and moving average price charts of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the natural rubber spot price curve has been above the 30 day and 60 day moving averages since mid March 2026. It only gradually crosses the 10 day, 30 day, and 60 day curves starting from March 16th, and then gradually returns to above the 10 day, 30 day, and 60 day curves after a brief dip. From the perspective of comprehensive spot prices and moving averages, natural rubber may experience slight adjustments in the short term due to factors such as Middle East geopolitical shocks and weather disturbances. In the medium term, the natural rubber market is expected to show an overall upward trend in the next 1-2 months, with strong support from the 30 day and 60 day curves. In the long run, the natural rubber market in 2026 is in a cyclical upward phase, with strong fluctuations throughout the year and a significant upward shift in the price center compared to 2025.
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