1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has maintained stable operation after a short rise. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2150 yuan / ton; in Shandong is about 2300-2450 yuan / ton; in Hebei is about 2400-2450 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi is about 2080 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu is about 2350-2400 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton About RMB / T; about RMB 2450-2500 / T for delivery in South China.

2、 Cause analysis

Product: affected by the reduction of centralized maintenance, the price of domestic acetic acid rose briefly in the early stage, with an increase of about 50 / T. however, at present, the overall market still presents a situation of supply exceeding demand. The downstream market is dominated by consumption contracts, and the substantial demand of the market has not improved. With the recovery of parking maintenance, the market supply will be further improved. In order to reduce the subsequent inventory pressure, the enterprise intends to Let the profit ship.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol market continues to decline, the consumer market declines, and the inventory in various regions accumulates. At present, the average price is about 1702 yuan / ton, down 15.82% compared with last month; the domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride industries continue to operate in a weak position after a short rise, with a large drop in price, weak market negotiation, and low demand in the downstream; with the continuous decline of international oil price and the downstream Due to the influence of factors such as the lack of market procurement, PTA market fell sharply, reaching the lowest value in ten years. Due to the rapid decline of cost side and the suppression of supply and demand, it is expected that the turning point of the rise is still difficult to come.

International: the acetic acid Market in North America has been affected by the continuous decline of methanol, with a sharp drop in price, which is about 595 US dollars / ton at present; the acetic acid Market in Asia has been affected by the overhaul of enterprises, with a significant drop in inventory, but the demand is still poor, with a current price of 285-340 US dollars / ton; the acetic acid Market in Europe is in a weak operation, with obvious pessimism, with a current price of 595 euros / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, with the recovery of production of enterprises and the sharp decline of methanol price, the favorable factors in the early stage are gradually weakened. Due to the lack of improvement in the downstream market, the negotiation in the industry is short and the pessimism spreads, and it is expected that the market will be weak in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market continued to decline. On March 23, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 1702 yuan / ton. The price was 15.82% lower than that of the same period last month and 27.86% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: affected by financial risks, domestic methanol spot continued to decline, with a sharp decline in the northwest of the main production area, and the price in Inner Mongolia and Northern Shaanxi dropped to 1400-1550 yuan / ton; the consumption market fell synchronously. The methanol social inventory of ports in East and South China continued to increase, with a total inventory of 1031500 tons. Among them, the inventory of East China increased, and that of South China went to storage this week. The inventory accumulation in Jiangsu area is mainly due to the concentration of Taicang and Nanjing to the ship, but the pick-up volume in the week has not been significantly improved. The reason for Guangdong to go to the warehouse is that there are few imported ships this week. It is expected that the ships arriving at the port will be delayed due to the unloading at the last port.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is running low as a whole. The overall market started to improve, the supply increased significantly, the upstream methanol market continued to decline, the production cost of formaldehyde enterprises decreased significantly, and the theoretical profit was considerable, but the demand of the downstream market was limited, resulting in the difficulty of formaldehyde enterprises’ shipment, and the overall transaction was light.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market ended a one month continuous decline trend, with an overall 30-50 range increase. The 550000 ton acetic acid plant of Shandong Yankuang was shut down and overhauled as scheduled, which eased the situation of continuous oversupply in the market. The price offered by the supplier was mainly stable, and all parties in the market were full of wait-and-see atmosphere in the later period.

Dimethyl ether: the domestic market price of dimethyl ether fluctuated downward, and the trading atmosphere was weak. After the breakdown of OPEC production reduction negotiations, there has been no good news on the market, but bad news began to increase. It has a great impact on the downstream liquefied gas and dimethyl ether. At present, the price of the mainstream enterprises in the main producing area of dimethyl ether in Henan Province has dropped below 2600 yuan / ton. Although the main enterprises intend to support the market after the maintenance of Yima Kaixiang, the effect is expected to be effective, and the price will fluctuate according to the old low level after the short-term rise.

3、 Future forecast

Business club’s view: on the positive side, the domestic methanol price continues to decline, some of which has fallen near the cost line, and some of the factories have lost money; most of the factories in the main production area have little inventory pressure, and the purchase of purchased olefins is relatively considerable. On the negative side, overseas public security incidents triggered market concerns. The trend of international crude oil, finance and stock market was weak, and market participants were worried about it. The port demand was limited, and the arrival of inventory was stable, but the unloading speed was slow due to the tight storage capacity. After Iran’s gas limit was eased, methanol production increased, and it is expected to arrive in China in late March. The world financial environment is in crisis, which leads to the prominent pressure of domestic economic environment, and the mentality of methanol participants is panicked. Although the price has fallen to the historical low, there is little intention to copy the bottom and speculate. At present, the financial environment and the international oil price have become the main logic affecting the bulk commodities, and the product fundamentals have little impact. Methanol analysts of the business club predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the domestic market price of dry process aluminum fluoride remained stable this week, with the average market price at the beginning of the week of 9166 yuan / ton and at the end of the week of 9166 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of aluminum fluoride is stable: the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. is 8500 yuan / ton, that of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9600 yuan / ton, and that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9500 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. In the near future, the situation of on-site manufacturers’ delivery has improved. Some on-site manufacturers have not resumed production. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, the purchase demand has increased, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. In the near future, the price of raw material fluorite remains high. The market price of hydrofluoric acid has been supported to some extent, and the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid remains high As of the end of the week, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 11000-12000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 10500-11500 yuan / ton. This week, the price of aluminum fluoride of most manufacturers remained stable, and some manufacturers will not open aluminum fluoride devices until April. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high, and the price of aluminum fluoride is mainly stable.

3、 Future forecast

According to the aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business and chemical branch, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is stable at present, and the market price of downstream aluminum fluoride is stable as a whole. It is expected that the market price of aluminum fluoride will continue to be stable next week.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of o-xylene Sinopec contract fell again this week, affected by the collapse of crude oil again, and the price of o-xylene fell again this week. As of March 19, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 4600.00 yuan / ton, down by 400 yuan / ton or 8% compared with the price of 5000.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene last week. The price is 32.35% lower than that of the same period last year. The price of o-benzene was sharply lowered again this week.

2、 Market analysis:

Crude oil prices plummeted again

It can be seen from the trend of crude oil price that the crude oil price has fallen sharply since March, of which Brent crude oil price has declined by 48.41% since March and WTI crude oil by 56.74% in March. The crude oil price dropped sharply and was transmitted to the downstream. The cost of raw materials for chemical products decreased, the cost of o-benzene decreased, and the price of o-benzene followed the decline. According to the trend of crude oil price this week, Brent crude oil price fell by 24.69% this week, and WTI crude oil fell by 35.8% this week. Crude oil price has repeatedly refreshed the historical low in recent years, and the cost of raw materials has declined, which makes the downstream products lose support and o-benzene market bearish.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with the data on xylene, crude oil prices plummeted again this week, setting a new low in recent years. The price of raw materials continues to plummet, which makes the cost of o-benzene drop sharply, and the space of o-benzene price drop increases. For the downstream, the start-up of the downstream enterprises is not getting better, and the capacity recovery is poor. The demand transaction is limited, and the market of orthobenzene is not good. Generally speaking, the market of ortho benzene is relatively negative, and there is no upward momentum in the future market of ortho benzene. It is expected that the market of ortho benzene in the future will mainly fall.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China continues to decline. As of March 18, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic anhydride was 5225 yuan / ton. Since 2020, the price of phthalic anhydride has dropped by 17.06%, down 23.54% year on year. In recent years, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has been falling continuously, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has repeatedly reached a new low.

In recent years, the market price of domestic phthalic anhydride has continued to decline. Due to the continuous decline of crude oil price, the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material ortho benzene is at a low level of 5000 yuan / ton. In addition, the downstream of the terminal has not yet fully recovered in the near future, some phthalic anhydride manufacturers still have inventory and poor delivery situation. Affected by the sharp decline of raw material price, the market price of domestic phthalic anhydride has been falling continuously. The market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China has fallen, the downstream factories have been shut down a lot, the factory inventory pressure has increased, and the high-end transaction has been blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined. The main flow of negotiation of neighboring method and naphthalene method in East China is 5100-5400 yuan / ton, 4800-5100 yuan / ton, and the main flow of quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5100-5300 yuan / ton, The prices of most manufacturers in the site fell, and the downstream purchase was mainly on demand, with a strong wait-and-see mentality, and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 5000 yuan / ton, and the import phthalic acid Market in port area is slightly lower. In the near future, the port phthalic acid market is weak, the port inventory is increased, and the external quotation of phthalic acid is lower. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Due to the decline of upstream raw material phthalic acid price, the market price of phthalic anhydride continues to decline.

The lower DOP raw material price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the DOP raw material cost fluctuated and fell, the DOP enterprise operated at low load, the logistics transportation was limited in the near future, it was difficult to get out of the warehouse, and the DOP manufacturer’s inventory increased. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fell, and the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level. The main quotation in DOP market is about 6500-6900 yuan / ton, a small amount of market plasticizers are traded, the downstream demand is poor, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is significantly lower.

In the later stage, the crude oil price is still in a weak position in the short term. In addition, the peak season of the downstream plasticizer industry is over, and the demand for the upstream phthalic anhydride is limited. Influenced by the international public health events, it is expected that the price of the phthalic anhydride Market will rise heavily in the later stage, and will still fall.