On August 20, the rare earth index was 372 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 62.80% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 37.27% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals increased by 0.5 million yuan per ton to 391.5 million yuan per ton, dysprosium metal by 2.3 million yuan per ton and praseodymium metal by 695 million yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides increased by 0.5 million yuan/ton to 3.075 million yuan/ton; the price of dysprosium oxide dropped by 10,000 yuan/ton to 1.93 million yuan/ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide was 3.825 million yuan/ton; and the average price of neodymium oxide increased by 0.5 million yuan/ton to 3.950 million yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys increased by 5,000 yuan/ton to 391,500 yuan/ton, while the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys decreased by 10,000 yuan/ton to 192,000 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of heavy rare earths has been slightly lower, but the price of light rare earths has risen. The domestic rare earth market is generally trading. Dysprosium metals have declined. Recently, the market of Pd and Nd series products has risen. The supply in the market is normal. The price of light rare earths has recovered slightly in the near future. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market input of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, with normal supply and stable price trend in the rare earth market. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general, but for products. Pricing major manufacturers are also cautious.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental protection will not be reduced in the near future, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and normal supply, but the recent rare earth market trading situation is general, and the price of the rare earth market is expected to remain mainly volatile.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the PP market trend was basically stable in the third week of August, with a narrow range of shocks adjusted. As of August 19, the mainstream offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was around 8666.67 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the beginning of the week.

II. Cause Analysis

Upstream: In the upstream, international crude oil rose sharply last week and then fell sharply. Although there was a slight recovery in the later period, market expectations were not satisfactory, which had a negative impact on propylene. Affected by typhoon, loading of some upstream and downstream enterprises in Shandong Province was blocked last week and the turnover was sluggish. Now most of them have returned to normal and the volume of propylene shipments has increased. Recent sharp fall in propylene prices has made downstream factories more cautious in purchasing, mainly in need, and the pressure of refineries’shipments continues to rise, which has warmed up the mood of profit and drainage. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province has been stable in early August, and began to fall continuously on the 5th, falling 450-500 yuan/ton on the 8th, rising again on the 10th and rising 200 yuan/ton on the 14th. About RMB / ton, stabilized on the 15th, and began to decline sharply on the 17th. About 300 RMB / ton were traded in three days. At present, the market turnover is around 7400 – 7650 RMB / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7400 RMB / ton.

Products: In the third week of August, the overall price trend of PP market remained stable and narrow adjustment. This week, the start-up rate of polypropylene enterprises in China was 79.48, with a decrease of 9.83% in circumference. Next week, Qingdao Dalian Refinery, Shenhua Yulin, Jiujiang Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical Dimerization, Zhongan Union and Yangtze Petrochemical Company plan to start, while Ningbo Fude plans to stop. It is expected that the start-up rate of enterprises will rise somewhat. Supported by petrochemical overhaul and certain cost aspects, the merchants are not willing to let the profit slip, but the difficulty of shipment remains unchanged and the transaction negotiation is concluded. Two barrels of oil PP stocks, TRADERS’stocks and social stocks all declined. The demand of end-users is flat, the enthusiasm of reserve is low, and the driving force of upward price is insufficient. Zhenhai Refinery (Sinopec East China) PP ex-factory price, drawing T30S quoted 8800 yuan/ton. Jiujiang Petrochemical (Sinopec East China) PP ex-factory price, drawing T30S offer for 8600 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical (CNPC East China) PP ex-factory price, drawing T30S offer for 8600 yuan/ton. Daqing Petrochemical (CNPC Northeast) PP ex-factory price, drawing T30S quoted 8750 yuan/ton. Dalian Organic PP (CNOOC Northeast) ex-factory price, drawing T30S offer for 8600 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

PP business analysts believe that this week, domestic PP prices stabilized in a narrow range of adjustments, the upstream propylene weakness fell, the cost of PP support weakened. The start-up rate of domestic polypropylene enterprises has declined, and there are many parking and maintenance devices. Dealers follow the market, downstream demand continues to weaken, trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that PP trend will probably continue to consolidate and operate in the near future.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market rose first and then declined. The average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 3176.67 yuan/ton on August 9, and 3040 yuan/ton on August 16. Within a week, the price of dimethyl ether (Henan) fell by 4.3%, 33.98% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Dimethyl ether (Henan) market prices fell this week. As of August 16, Yutai in Hebei and Lankao Huitong in Henan were stopped for overhaul, and Xinyuan dimethyl ether plant in Yima in Henan was out of order. No quotation was made for the time being. The ex-factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan is 3070 yuan/ton, that of Henan Xinlian Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 3010 yuan/ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3200 yuan/ton, that of Shengdeyuan, Dezhou, Shandong is 3050 yuan/ton, and that of Yuhuang, Shandong is 3050 yuan/ton. It’s 3080 yuan? The ex-factory price of dimethyl ether in Shanxi Orchid Science and Technology Venture Co., Ltd. is 3040 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: Domestic methanol market performance is different this week, the mainland market is slightly stronger than the port market. This week, the overall performance of the mainland market is still acceptable, continuing the strong trend last week. Prices in the main production areas of Northwest China rose at the beginning of the week. The trading atmosphere was good. Most enterprises stopped selling, which to some extent boosted the mainland market. The liquefied petroleum gas market fell first and then rose this week. Affected by typhoon weather at the beginning of the week, there was rainfall in Shandong, which affected the production and loading and unloading of manufacturers. In addition, the transportation of high-speed dangerous chemicals was limited, the trading atmosphere was cold and the price trend was weak. Later by the international crude oil boom to bring good market, prices generally increased, trading atmosphere improved significantly, smooth shipment. This week, the dimethyl ether industry started work at 32.3%, the weekly start slightly declined by 0.2%. At present, the market demand for dimethyl ether is shrinking, prices continue to be depressed, downstream purchases are mostly on demand, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. Although methanol has risen this week, bringing some support to the market, but the contradiction between supply and demand of liquefied gas still exists, the trend is general, dimethyl ether is currently low profit, price weakening.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are six kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector in the commodity price rise-fall list in the 32nd week of 2019 (8.12-8.16). Among them, there are one commodity with an increase of more than 5%, which accounts for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities with a rise are coke (6.29%), gasoline (2.26%) and methanol (1.92%). There are nine kinds of commodities that have declined annually. The first three products are dimethyl ether (-4.60%), liquefied natural gas (-3.53%) and power coal (-1.20%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.14%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Dimethyl ether business analysts believe that the current market is still in the off-season demand, downstream more consumption of pre-inventory, market enthusiasm is general, but as August is about to pass, market demand has improved, the traditional “gold nine silver ten” is coming, the market is expected to decline first and then rise.

On August 15, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 15th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by 10 US dollars/ton on August 14. The closing price is 784-786 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 803-805 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On August 14, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to 55.23 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 1.87 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures fell to 59.48 U.S. dollars per barrel, a decline of 1.82 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices declined, which had a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products and temporarily stabilized the price trend of xylene market. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend slightly increased on the 15th day. The average price of East China is raised near 5300-5400 yuan/ton. As of the 14th day, domestic PTA start-up rate is about 91%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 86%, downstream production and marketing rate has little change, but PTA market price trend is rising, and PX market price is expected to rise later. Or will the shock be maintained.

I. Trend analysis

As shown in the chart above, the copper market price on August 14 was 46648.33 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous trading day, down 3.14% from the beginning of the year and down 4.35% from the same period last year, according to the data of business associations.

II. Market Analysis

Recent copper price shocks are mainly narrow. Basically, on the supply side, copper supply continues to be tight. Jianeng’s Zambian company closed two copper mines. If miners do not invest more capital, there will be a shortfall of 1 million tons in 2024 and about 4 million tons in 2028. On the demand side, downstream start-up data show that household appliances orders are weakening. From January to June, the cumulative value of investment in power grid capital construction was 164.4 billion yuan, a cumulative decrease of 19.3% over the same period of last year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In summary, the copper analysts of the non-ferrous branch of the business association believe that the short-term copper prices or shocks are strong, supported by the import ban on scrap copper in the case of weak supply and demand.