On August 27, the rare earth index was 373 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 62.70% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 37.64% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 395,500 yuan per ton, dysprosium metal is 2.3 million yuan per ton and praseodymium metal is 695,000 yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides increased by 4 500 yuan/ton to 3.135 million yuan/ton, dysprosium oxide price was 1.915 million yuan/ton, praseodymium oxide price was 3.825 million yuan/ton, and neodymium oxide price was increased by 4 500 yuan/ton to 3.155 million yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 395,500 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 191,000 yuan per ton.

Recently, the price of heavy rare earth in rare earth market has been volatile, but the price of light rare earth market has risen slightly. The domestic rare earth market has a general trading market. The price of dysprosium metals has maintained a high level. Recently, the inquiry list for Pr and Nd oxide has increased, and the price of light rare earth oxides has maintained a rising trend. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market input of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, with normal supply and stable price trend in the rare earth market. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general, but for products.  Pricing major manufacturers are also cautious.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that domestic environmental stringency will not diminish in the near future, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and normal supply, but the demand for rare earth downstream has been supported in the near future, and some prices in the rare earth market are expected to rise.

On August 26, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 26th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Creative Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily because of the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 23, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 2 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 764-766 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 783-785 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The fluctuation of foreign prices has a certain impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of domestic p-xylene is temporarily stable.

On August 23, WTI crude oil futures fell to $54.17 a barrel, or $1.18 a barrel, while Brent crude oil futures fell to $59.34 a barrel, or $0.58 a barrel. In a recent report issued by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the growth rate of global crude oil demand per day in 2019 is expected to be reduced from 1.5 million barrels to 1.1 million barrels. It is also expected that there will be a slight surplus in the oil market in 2020, and that the trend of crude oil prices will decline, which will have a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products and the market price of paraxylene. The trend of the latter is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has slightly declined, PTA price has slightly declined on the 26th. The average price in East China is raised near 5100-5200 yuan/ton. As of the 23rd day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 94.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 86.5%, and the PTA social stock is estimated to be about 1.4 million tons. Affected by the equipment shutdown and maintenance, the total price in August is about 1.4 million tons. The body maintains a small depot rhythm. PTA factory inventory accounts for about 30%, polyester factory raw material inventory accounts for about 28%, downstream polyester factory has space to continue to replenish. Towards the traditional sales season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” for textiles, downstream terminal enterprises may usher in the procurement cycle and demand side will improve. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain volatile in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic market price of monoammonium phosphate remained stable this week. The average price of powder monoammonium is 2150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2150 yuan/ton at the end of the week, which is 2.27% lower than that of August 1 (2200.00).

According to the data of business associations, the domestic market price of diammonium phosphate dropped slightly this week. The average price of 64 diammonium granules was 2500 yuan per ton at the beginning of the week, and 2476 yuan per ton at the end of the week, down by 0.93%. Compared with August 1 (2500.00), it decreased by 0.93%.

II. Market Analysis

Monoammonium: The domestic market for powdered monoammonium is cold and stable. Anhui province 55% ammonium powder factory quoted 2000 yuan – 2150 yuan / ton, smooth start. In Hubei, 55% of ammonium powder is quoted at about 2050 yuan/ton, while 60% of ammonium powder is quoted at 2150-2250 yuan/ton. Henan market maintained stable operation, 55% of ammonium powder factory quoted 2100 yuan / ton, and started smoothly. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Shandong province is 2050 yuan-2150 yuan/ton, which is stable. Sichuan province 55% ammonium powder factory quoted about 2050 yuan/ton. The new orders of monoammonium phosphate Market are insufficient to follow up, and the overall trading atmosphere is cold.

Diammonium: Demand for domestic diammonium is sluggish. It is now in the stage of horizontal consolidation. At present, 64% of diammonium in Hubei province is offered 2450-2550 yuan per ton, 64% of diammonium in Shandong is offered 2400-2500 yuan per ton, and 64% of diammonium in Yunnan and Guizhou is offered 2500 yuan per ton. The market of diammonium phosphate started slowly in autumn, and the market demand at home and abroad was insufficient.

Industry chain: Domestic phosphoric acid market prices continue to fall, ending the rising tide. Domestic sulphur market prices fell, lack of information guidance, refineries in all regions continued to lower prices. Phosphate ore market is weak and stable, the overall market has little change, and the turnover is general. Domestic liquid ammonia market has not changed much and its performance is stable. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises take goods on demand, the market is still weak, and the autumn fertilizer market starts slowly.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 33rd week of 2019 (8.19-8.23), the price of phosphorus chemical industry rose or fell by 0 commodities, 2 commodities fell, and 3 commodities rose or fell by 0. The main commodities falling were phosphoric acid (-3.23%) and diammonium phosphate (-0.93%). In the 33rd week of 2019 (8.19-8.23), there were 1 commodity rising in the list of fertilizer prices, 3 commodities falling, and 5 commodities rising or falling to 0. The main commodities rising were liquid ammonia (0.31%) and falling were ammonium sulfate (-1.54%), diammonium phosphate (-0.93%) and potassium sulfate (-0.81%).

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts believe that ammonium prices remained stable on Monday and raw material prices continued to fall. Although the autumn market is approaching, downstream fertilizer companies are not willing to take delivery. Ammonium market prices are expected to stabilize or decline in the short term. The disadvantaged market of diammonium has been consolidated and turned to the weak domestic market. It is expected that the market price of diammonium will continue to be weak in the later period, and cautious operation is recommended.

On August 22, the rare earth index was 373 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.70% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 37.64% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals is 393,500 yuan/ton, 2.3 million yuan/ton and 695,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxides in rare earth oxides is 313,500 yuan/ton; the price of dysprosium oxide has dropped from 10,000 yuan/ton to 192,000 yuan/ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 382,500 yuan/ton; and the average price of neodymium oxide is 315,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 395,500 yuan per ton, while the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys is down from 10,000 yuan per ton to 191,000 yuan per ton.

Recently, the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market has been slightly lower, but the price of light rare earth market has maintained an upward trend. The domestic rare earth market trading market is general, dysprosium metals have declined. Recently, the inquiry list for Pr and Nd oxide has increased, and the price of light rare earth oxides has maintained an upward trend. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market input of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, with normal supply and stable price trend in the rare earth market. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general, but for products. Pricing major manufacturers are also cautious.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that domestic environmental stringency will not diminish in the near future, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and normal supply, but the demand for rare earth downstream has been supported in the near future, and some prices in the rare earth market are expected to rise.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, domestic PTA spot market prices fell slightly on August 21, down 0.33% from the previous trading day and 39.17% from the same period last year. Futures market to the closing main futures (2001) closed at 5,158 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.45%. The import market is stable for the time being. The PTA US dollar offer refers to US$700/ton, the offer is US$660/ton, and the supplier of one-day tour reports to US$700-740/ton. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is still acceptable. Traders and factories are the main buyers.

Recent PTA start-up load has been rising to around 91%, supply side of a number of devices to restart the bad market. Ningbo Yisheng 650,000 tons PTA plant is scheduled to restart on the evening of 21; Huabin Petrochemical 1.4 million tons PTA plant is scheduled to be fully loaded in the near future; Liwan Polyester 700,000 tons PTA plant is scheduled to restart near August 23.

Raw material market kept a narrow rise. The closing price of WTI main futures for international crude oil on August 20 was $56.34 per barrel, which was $0.13 per ton higher than the previous trading day. The closing price of BRENT main futures was $60.03 per barrel, which was $0.29 per ton higher than the previous trading day. Domestic PX price trend is stable, maintained near 7000 yuan/ton. The Asian PX market closed at $773 per ton for FOB Korea and $793 per ton for CFR China, up $1 per ton from the previous trading day.

Terminal demand improved slightly and polyester began to rebound and inventory fell. The downstream polyester start-up load restored to about 88%, and the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 74%. In terms of inventory, polyester FDY inventory decreased by 3 days, polyester DTY by 2.5 days and polyester POY by 2 days. In terms of price, most of the mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions reported stable prices, with an increase of 50 yuan per ton. Among them, polyester POY (150D/48F) is 7650-8000 yuan/ton, polyester FDY (150D/96F) is 7950-8200 yuan/ton and polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) is 8900-9200 yuan/ton.

Business analyst Xia Ting believes that PTA supply side has recently restarted a number of devices, suppressing prices, and insufficient cost-side support. However, downstream demand has gradually improved, production and sales have improved, and PTA is expected to decline in limited space. The future market still needs to pay attention to the planned overhaul of 2.2 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical plant and the change of terminal demand.