1. Nickel Spot Trend

On September 2, nickel prices soared again. According to the monitoring of nickel prices of business associations, the spot price of nickel on September 2 was 141366.67 yuan/ton, which surged 9.05% from 129633.33 yuan/ton on the previous trading day; the opening price of Shanghai nickel rose nearly 6% to 136960 yuan/ton, a new high since the re-listing of nickel; and the three-month period of LME nickel rose sharply, once reaching 8.14%, the biggest increase in 10 years.

2. Historical Trend of Spot Nickel

According to the data of business associations, nickel rose by nearly 10% in a single day today, with a price of 1413,366.67 yuan per ton, breaking a new high of 130,000 yuan, surging 57% from the beginning of the year, hitting a five-year high since September 2014. The ban on mining in Indonesia in 2014 caused nickel prices to rise by nearly 50% in the six months at that time.

Nickel Price Rising in Indonesia’s Mining Boots

Bambang Gatot Ariyono, head of coal and minerals at Indonesia’s Ministry of Mining, said Monday that Indonesia would stop exporting nickel ore from January 1, 2020 because Indonesia had to process more mineral resources at home. Ariyono told reporters that the implementation of this regulation was two years ahead of the original plan and only applied to nickel ores. After the news spread, spot nickel soared by nearly 10%, and futures nickel closed directly.

3. Indonesia’s nickel imports account for more than 1/3 of the total

China expects to import about 70.6 million tons of nickel ore in 2019, of which 26 million tons are from Indonesia, accounting for 36.8% of the total, accounting for more than one third. If Indonesian nickel mines stop exporting nickel ores on January 1, 2020, the supply of nickel ores will be affected by more than one third.

The largest nickel mine in the Philippines will stop mining in October when nickel resources are depleted

Due to the depletion of resources, LANGUYAN, the highest-grade nickel mine in the Philippines, will stop mining in October. At present, the delivery capacity of the mine is about 600,000 mt/month, with an average nickel grade of more than 1.5%. In addition, another mine near the mine, ANC, is also facing the pressure of exhaustion of resources. Although it has not been officially closed down, there are no high-grade minerals, mainly middle-grade tailings. Because of the earlier development time, the exhaustion pressure of high-grade ore in Tawi Ta mining area is indeed higher. The annual shipment capacity of LANGUYAN nickel mine is 7.2 million tons per year, accounting for 16.74% of the total import volume of the Philippines, which is 41.87 million tons per year.

4. Downstream Stainless Steel Follows Up by a Big margin

As of September 2, the daily average price of 304/2B stainless steel plate 1.0*1219*2438 (tolerance 0.91) was 14171.43 yuan/ton (including tax), up 2.48% from 13828.57 yuan/ton (including tax) of the previous trading day, up 8.65% from the lowest level since June 19 this year. Stainless steel production continued to increase in August, which supported nickel prices.

Nickel Price Rising High Nickel Ternary Lithium Batteries Still Have Advantages

With the prohibition of nickel ore export and the rise of nickel price, the price rise of nickel-related products and derivatives will eventually affect the development of the industrial chain. Increasing nickel price will drive up the price of nickel sulfate. Recently, the price of cobalt sulfate has been rising all the way, from 27500 yuan/ton on August 29 to 28400 yuan/ton. As one of the raw materials of high nickel lithium-ion batteries, nickel sulfate increases the proportion of nickel in the batteries and reduces the proportion of cobalt, so as to achieve the goal of long-term service. At present, the ternary cost growth after nickel price conversion is still acceptable to the downstream manufacturers, and the trend of high nickelization is also very clear. As a new demand for nickel, it is still strong.

Two factors may weaken the strong momentum of nickel prices

With Indonesia’s ban on nickel exports, nickel prices may exceed expectations in the fourth quarter, but there are two factors that may weaken the strong momentum of nickel prices: first, China has stockpiled a large amount of nickel, and second, the Philippines may increase exports as Indonesia stops selling.

The effect of ore ban on domestic stainless steel raw materials is relatively limited.

For the domestic stainless steel industry chain, the relative tightness of raw materials is phased. With the release of Indonesia’s new production capacity of ferronickel, the export of ferronickel will replace the export of nickel ore. This effect will be evident in the second half of next year. In the medium and long term, the impact of ban on domestic stainless steel raw materials is relatively limited.

Indonesian mining boots landing bullish mood or ease

To sum up, Liu Meimei, nickel analyst of the business association, believes that the news of Indonesia’s ban on mining had a wave of hype as early as early as July, which caused the price of nickel to soar by nearly 40% this year. Until recently, the news of Indonesia’s ban on mining hit hard, and the price of nickel soared by nearly 20%. But with the boots landing, the hype may ease. Recalling the historical data of nickel price, it was also banned in Indonesia in 2014. China imported more than 1/3 of Indonesian nickel ore in the whole year. At that time, the price of nickel soared to 150,000/ton. According to this level, there is still room for nearly 10,000 nickel prices to rise. However, the ban on nickel mining in Indonesia does not exclude the possibility that the Philippines may increase its nickel export volume and to some extent reduce the impact of Indonesia’s ban on nickel mining. Overall, the Philippines is facing the depletion of nickel resources. The largest nickel mine will be closed in October, while September and October will be the traditional peak season. Although macro-uncertainties may reduce demand, overall, the supply of nickel price is tight in the medium and long term, but it is still optimistic. Now the nickel price is hot, there is room to increase by 150,000 yuan, then or higher. The next wave of high points or the closing time of nickel mines in the Philippines in October.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride has been stable this week. This week, the average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation is 2265.00 yuan/ton, which is 0.67% higher than the same period last year. Overall, the market for potassium chloride was stable this week, with the commodity index of potassium chloride at 71.90 on August 30.

II. Market Analysis

This week, the quotation of the main potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride weekend ex-factory quotation is 2250 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend distribution quotation is 2280 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable. This week, the actual turnover of potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic market of potassium chloride is stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium chloride Market in early September overall trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. However, the potassium chloride market is currently facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock of Hong Kong, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts believe that short-term potassium chloride Market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the potassium chloride market or low consolidation.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, at the beginning of this week, the market quotation of organosilicon DMC increased steadily, slightly and sporadically. As of August 29, the average quotation of several mainstream regions was around 21200 yuan/ton, up by about 200 yuan/ton compared with August 23, up by 0.95%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the price of silicone DMC continues to rise narrowly. Individual enterprises take turns to have maintenance plans. The overall plant start-up rate is not high, the overall inventory is still low, the market supply is slightly tight, the overall market price remains high, downstream enterprises are more cautious to wait and see, just need to purchase. The lowest ex-factory quotation of silicone DMC distributors in Shandong area is around 20800 yuan/ton. The supply is tight. At present, only existing orders are processed. At present, the overall quotation of the mainstream areas of the silicone DMC market is around 20800-21500 yuan/ton.

Plant start-up: Tangshan Sanyou silicone monomer annual capacity of 200,000 tons, phase II parking overhaul. Zhejiang Zhongtian silicone monomer production capacity of 120,000 tons, the device is currently in normal operation. Aiken Silicone (Jiangxi Base) has an annual capacity of 400,000 tons, with about 50% start-up of the unit; Xin’an Silicone Unit in Zhejiang Province has an annual capacity of 350,000 tons, and the unit is currently in normal operation. Inner Mongolia Hengye Chengdu silicone monomer annual capacity of 240,000 tons, equipment overhaul completed, normal operation. Shandong Luxi chemical silicone monomer annual production capacity of 80,000 tons, plant shutdown overhaul. Shandong Jinling plant has an annual capacity of 120,000 tons. At present, the plant is parked and repaired. Dongyue Organic Silicone Unit in Shandong Province has an annual capacity of 250,000 tons, and the plant is now on and off. Zhejiang Hesheng Luzhou plant parking overhaul, Xinjiang region added 200,000 tons of monomer device in the current test run, Zhejiang plant normal operation.

Industry chain: Silicone DMC downstream products, raw rubber and 107 prices continue to be high, 107 rubber quotation is still strong, the price increased sporadically, monomer factory 107 rubber plant start-up rate is general, low inventory. The price of raw rubber has increased slightly. The price of common raw rubber in mainstream areas is close to 23500 yuan/ton. Inventory is low. Some manufacturers take orders in limited quantities and have a slight willingness to bid.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that “Golden September” is coming. Due to the general environment and various factors, the silicone market may not be as prosperous as in previous years. In the short term, the rise and fall of silicone DMC is difficult to predict, or the probability of continued bullish is greater.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the average ex-factory price of sulphur market in eastern China is 693.33 yuan/ton, a drop of 7.14%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic sulphur market prices have been sharply lowered, downstream demand performance is still weak, terminal purchasing enthusiasm is weak, lack of information support, refineries in various regions continue to downward price adjustment, solid sulphur in East China market has been reduced by 40 yuan/ton, mainstream price is around 680-700 yuan/ton, liquid sulphur in individual refineries has been reduced by 50 yuan/ton. The mainstream price is around 610-680 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of sulfur in Shandong market is down 80 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur is around 700 yuan/ton; the liquid sulfur is down 60 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of sulfur in North China is down 60 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur is down 50-600 yuan/ton; and the liquid sulfur is down 60 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of sulphur is 520-560 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The downstream sulphuric acid market is weak, high land price coexists, the contradiction between supply and demand remains, the buyers and sellers are cautious to trade, the mindset of the business is not good, individual acid enterprises parking and maintenance, local prices are flexible to increase, the market is not supported by substantial good news for the time being, and the price is expected to be low or downward.

Industry: From the demand point of view, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, it is difficult to change. Domestic port inventory is high, consumption is slow, market turnover is still cold, on-demand procurement is the main, buyers and sellers wait for information guidance. Domestic sulphur market continued to decline, downstream demand has not improved, the industry for the future look at the atmosphere is strong.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business sulfur analysts believe that the current sulfur market is lack of news support, no substantial positive factors, the future market bearish is obvious, the short-term sulfur market is expected to continue weak consolidation.

On August 27, the rare earth index was 373 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 62.70% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 37.64% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 395,500 yuan per ton, dysprosium metal is 2.3 million yuan per ton and praseodymium metal is 695,000 yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides increased by 4 500 yuan/ton to 3.135 million yuan/ton, dysprosium oxide price was 1.915 million yuan/ton, praseodymium oxide price was 3.825 million yuan/ton, and neodymium oxide price was increased by 4 500 yuan/ton to 3.155 million yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 395,500 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 191,000 yuan per ton.

Recently, the price of heavy rare earth in rare earth market has been volatile, but the price of light rare earth market has risen slightly. The domestic rare earth market has a general trading market. The price of dysprosium metals has maintained a high level. Recently, the inquiry list for Pr and Nd oxide has increased, and the price of light rare earth oxides has maintained a rising trend. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market input of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, with normal supply and stable price trend in the rare earth market. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general, but for products.  Pricing major manufacturers are also cautious.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that domestic environmental stringency will not diminish in the near future, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and normal supply, but the demand for rare earth downstream has been supported in the near future, and some prices in the rare earth market are expected to rise.