1、 Price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market continued to decline. On March 23, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 1702 yuan / ton. The price was 15.82% lower than that of the same period last month and 27.86% lower than that of the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
Products: affected by financial risks, domestic methanol spot continued to decline, with a sharp decline in the northwest of the main production area, and the price in Inner Mongolia and Northern Shaanxi dropped to 1400-1550 yuan / ton; the consumption market fell synchronously. The methanol social inventory of ports in East and South China continued to increase, with a total inventory of 1031500 tons. Among them, the inventory of East China increased, and that of South China went to storage this week. The inventory accumulation in Jiangsu area is mainly due to the concentration of Taicang and Nanjing to the ship, but the pick-up volume in the week has not been significantly improved. The reason for Guangdong to go to the warehouse is that there are few imported ships this week. It is expected that the ships arriving at the port will be delayed due to the unloading at the last port.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is running low as a whole. The overall market started to improve, the supply increased significantly, the upstream methanol market continued to decline, the production cost of formaldehyde enterprises decreased significantly, and the theoretical profit was considerable, but the demand of the downstream market was limited, resulting in the difficulty of formaldehyde enterprises’ shipment, and the overall transaction was light.
Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market ended a one month continuous decline trend, with an overall 30-50 range increase. The 550000 ton acetic acid plant of Shandong Yankuang was shut down and overhauled as scheduled, which eased the situation of continuous oversupply in the market. The price offered by the supplier was mainly stable, and all parties in the market were full of wait-and-see atmosphere in the later period.
Dimethyl ether: the domestic market price of dimethyl ether fluctuated downward, and the trading atmosphere was weak. After the breakdown of OPEC production reduction negotiations, there has been no good news on the market, but bad news began to increase. It has a great impact on the downstream liquefied gas and dimethyl ether. At present, the price of the mainstream enterprises in the main producing area of dimethyl ether in Henan Province has dropped below 2600 yuan / ton. Although the main enterprises intend to support the market after the maintenance of Yima Kaixiang, the effect is expected to be effective, and the price will fluctuate according to the old low level after the short-term rise.
3、 Future forecast
Business club’s view: on the positive side, the domestic methanol price continues to decline, some of which has fallen near the cost line, and some of the factories have lost money; most of the factories in the main production area have little inventory pressure, and the purchase of purchased olefins is relatively considerable. On the negative side, overseas public security incidents triggered market concerns. The trend of international crude oil, finance and stock market was weak, and market participants were worried about it. The port demand was limited, and the arrival of inventory was stable, but the unloading speed was slow due to the tight storage capacity. After Iran’s gas limit was eased, methanol production increased, and it is expected to arrive in China in late March. The world financial environment is in crisis, which leads to the prominent pressure of domestic economic environment, and the mentality of methanol participants is panicked. Although the price has fallen to the historical low, there is little intention to copy the bottom and speculate. At present, the financial environment and the international oil price have become the main logic affecting the bulk commodities, and the product fundamentals have little impact. Methanol analysts of the business club predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will continue to decline.