1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has maintained stable operation after a short rise. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2150 yuan / ton; in Shandong is about 2300-2450 yuan / ton; in Hebei is about 2400-2450 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi is about 2080 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu is about 2350-2400 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton About RMB / T; about RMB 2450-2500 / T for delivery in South China.
2、 Cause analysis
| PVA 2088 (PVA BP20) |
Product: affected by the reduction of centralized maintenance, the price of domestic acetic acid rose briefly in the early stage, with an increase of about 50 / T. however, at present, the overall market still presents a situation of supply exceeding demand. The downstream market is dominated by consumption contracts, and the substantial demand of the market has not improved. With the recovery of parking maintenance, the market supply will be further improved. In order to reduce the subsequent inventory pressure, the enterprise intends to Let the profit ship.
Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol market continues to decline, the consumer market declines, and the inventory in various regions accumulates. At present, the average price is about 1702 yuan / ton, down 15.82% compared with last month; the domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride industries continue to operate in a weak position after a short rise, with a large drop in price, weak market negotiation, and low demand in the downstream; with the continuous decline of international oil price and the downstream Due to the influence of factors such as the lack of market procurement, PTA market fell sharply, reaching the lowest value in ten years. Due to the rapid decline of cost side and the suppression of supply and demand, it is expected that the turning point of the rise is still difficult to come.
| PVA |
International: the acetic acid Market in North America has been affected by the continuous decline of methanol, with a sharp drop in price, which is about 595 US dollars / ton at present; the acetic acid Market in Asia has been affected by the overhaul of enterprises, with a significant drop in inventory, but the demand is still poor, with a current price of 285-340 US dollars / ton; the acetic acid Market in Europe is in a weak operation, with obvious pessimism, with a current price of 595 euros / ton.
3、 Future forecast
According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, with the recovery of production of enterprises and the sharp decline of methanol price, the favorable factors in the early stage are gradually weakened. Due to the lack of improvement in the downstream market, the negotiation in the industry is short and the pessimism spreads, and it is expected that the market will be weak in the future.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |