On August 6, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 104.72, down 0.45 points from yesterday, down 25.43% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 95.41% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid declined slightly on August 6. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11540 yuan/ton, and the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the current spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the recent market situation is general. Recently, due to poor downstream demand, some hydrogen is available. Fluoric acid manufacturers slightly cut prices, hydrofluoric acid market prices fell. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10500-11500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 11000-12000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price declined, spot supply is normal, but the demand situation is poor, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is temporarily stable.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is poor, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions have improved, R22 refrigerant plant surface started at 50%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 17500-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, the spot price of nickel on August 5 was 117116.67 yuan/ton, which was 2.36% higher than 114416.67 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, 30.84% higher than that at the beginning of the year and 14.92% higher than that on the previous trading day. Since July 2, nickel has risen to the highest price of 118,466 yuan/ton in the year on July 19, followed by a slight fluctuation in the high level. Today’s nickel price is affected by market rumors that Indonesia has banned the export of raw ore, resulting in concerns about nickel supply. The price has risen sharply again by nearly three points. The price of the main 1910 contract of Shanghai nickel futures also rose rapidly, reaching a maximum of 1,19360 yuan/ton, a new high since June 27, 2018, with an increase of more than 4%. Prior to that, the daily line had reached “four lianyang”.

According to the current nickel futures table of business associations, the spot price of nickel is higher than the main contract price in the near future, the main contract price is the price of nickel in the next two months, and the spot price is higher than the main contract price of nickel, indicating that people are still cautious about the future price of nickel.

It is rumored that the Minister of Energy and Mines of Indonesia has signed a decree banning the export of raw ore.

In mid-July, rumors that the Indonesian government might resume the export ban in 2022 triggered market concerns and led to a sharp rise in nickel prices. But there were rumors that the ban would not be enforced until 2022, and many doubted whether it would be reintroduced.

However, according to market rumors, the Nickel Mining Association informed all its members on the 4th that the Minister of Energy and Mines of Indonesia had signed a ministerial decree banning the export of raw ore, and the specific content would be announced to the outside world on Monday (5). Some domestic nickel mine agents did learn from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mines that the export of raw ore may be banned, but whether the final implementation and execution time have not yet been finalized, still need to wait for the actual announcement results. But opinions vary. At present, the most striking rumor is that it can be banned as early as October, and that it can be banned in November or January next year. Encouraged by the news, nickel prices soared again.

Another sudden earthquake in Indonesia

On August 2, Indonesia experienced another earthquake of magnitude 6.9. According to the US Geological Survey, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck the waters off Sumatra Island, Indonesia, on 2 July, and Indonesian authorities have issued a tsunami warning. Recent earthquakes occurred continuously in Indonesia. On June 24, earthquakes with magnitudes of 6.1 and 7.3 occurred successively in Papua and Bandahai provinces of Indonesia, and on July 14, an earthquake with magnitude of 7.1 occurred in Hamah, Indonesia. Frequent earthquakes have caused persistent concerns about the supply of nickel ore.

However, the earthquake in Indonesia has now subsided and cancelled two hours after the tsunami warning was issued. It is also known that there are two ferronickel factories in Wandan Province, which have an average monthly output of about 500 metal tons, accounting for less than 1% of the high-nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia, and have no impact on the disturbance of supply. Big.

Future Market Forecast

History is always amazingly similar. The surge in nickel prices in July was also affected by the Indonesian or resumed export ban, the Indonesian earthquake and the Philippine mineral censorship. After adjusting nickel prices for a period of time, with the resumption of export ban boots or landing in Indonesia, another earthquake hit Indonesia, and nickel prices were pushed up again. Out of the independent market. Macroscopically, the impact of the 10% tariff imposed by the United States on China again, the export data of RMB breaking 7 bonds, the continuing trade war, affecting the domestic economy, and the demand for stainless steel downstream is not optimistic. Generally speaking, the rumors of Indonesia’s ban on mining have been expected in the market. The shortage of nickel supply or the existence of nickel supply have supported nickel prices. However, the nickel price should not be overly optimistic in the case of poor environmental and economic background. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to rise in the short term or still, but the increase is limited.

Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business associations, the average price of 180 CST fuel oil in the mainstream domestic market as of July 31 was 4556.00 yuan/ton, up or down 1.56% compared with 4486.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Fuel oil commodity index on July 31 was 92.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.40% from the cyclical peak of 115.91 points (2018-10-17), and up 100.24% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic fuel oil delivery this month is general, the current mainstream price is about 4550 yuan/ton. In recent weeks, fuel oil upwelling in Asia has reached a new high, which is one of the first signs of the impact of the new international regulations on ship fuel oil to be implemented in 2020.

Industry chain: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was 58.47 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month, 58.05 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a weekly increase and decrease of -0.72%; Brent crude oil was 66.55 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the month and 64.72 US dollars per barrel at the end of the month, with a weekly increase and decrease of -2.75%. Several factors, such as tension between the United States and Iraq, the Gulf of Mexico storm and worries about oversupply, affected the trend of international crude oil prices in July. On Wednesday, July 31, the weighted average price of Fukushi shale oil increased by 2 yuan/ton, with the winning bidding volume of 0.16 million tons, the bidding volume of 0.16 million tons and the volume of 0.9 million tons. The tendering price of this time is 3656 yuan/ton, with the winning bidding interval of 3666-3706 yuan/ton, and the next bidding time is August 7.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, there were 7 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were MTBE (12.29%), diesel (8.34%) and gasoline (8.07%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling annually, and 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5% accounted for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products of the first three declines were methanol (-9.55%), petroleum coke (-6.15%) and Brent crude oil (-2.75%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.98%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts of business associations believe that this month’s international crude oil shocks, but the ship-fuel market is weak, the overall market turnover is weak, just in need of procurement. Fuel oil market prices are expected to remain stable in August, with some enterprises fluctuating slightly, or in the price range of 4500-4650 yuan/ton.

According to statistics, the domestic price of p-xylene has been stable since the end of June. Recently, the domestic price has been maintained at 7,000 yuan/ton. The price is not hot, mainly because of the joint influence of domestic and foreign factors.

The market price trend of p-xylene is stable, the domestic factor PX start-up rate is more than 70%. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit starts a line. Pengzhou Petrochemical Unit runs steadily, Yangtze Petrochemical PX Unit runs normally, Jinling Petrochemical Unit runs smoothly, Qingdao Lidong Unit runs at full load, Qilu Petrochemical Unit runs steadily, Urumqi Stone Unit runs steadily. About 50% of the chemical plant started operation. The domestic Hengli Petrochemical plant with a capacity of 225,000 tons operated steadily. The domestic supply of p-xylene was normal, and the domestic market price trend was stable. The price of domestic PX products has a high degree of external reserve as high as 60%. The price of PX external market has a great influence on the price of domestic market. Recent price trends of external market are as follows:

The recent start-up rate of paraxylene plant in Asia is more than 70% and the supply of PX in Asia is normal. As can be seen from the above chart, the price trend of PX external market is shocking recently. The closing price of PX external market is 825-827 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 844-846 US dollars/ton CFR China as of 31. More than 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The closing price trend of PX external market is shocking. Swing, domestic PX market prices are affected by the trend of temporary stability.

From the upstream raw materials:

Recent domestic crude oil price closing price shocks, as of 31 U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price was 58.58 U.S. dollars/barrel, Brent crude oil futures price was 65.17 U.S. dollars/barrel, July crude oil closing price shocks, have cost support for downstream petrochemical products, PX market price trend is stable. MX price of PX upstream raw material has been rising slightly in recent years, but the overall trend is not large. The rising price of PX upstream raw material has brought some favorable support to the price of PX market, and the price trend of domestic paraxylene market is stable.

As can be seen from the above chart, since mid-May, the production process using MX as raw material has no profit. As a whole, it seems that the profit as a whole is in the loss, which is much smaller than the previous profit.

From the downstream point of view:

Recent downstream PTA market price trend has fallen sharply. By the end of the month, East China PTA market talks were around 5500-5600 yuan. The sharp decline in downstream PTA market price is undoubtedly the negative impact of the PX market. At the end of July, PTA plant start-up rate maintained about 84%, while downstream polyester plant start-up rate was about 84%, textile start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was about 62%, downstream PTA and polyester products start-up rate decreased, PTA price trend declined, and PX market price maintained a weak shock.

Chen Ling, an analyst with business association PX, believes that the recent price fluctuation of crude oil, together with lower start-up of textile polyester in the lower reaches, normal domestic supply of p-xylene plant, and the PTA industry in the lower reaches have no obvious favorable support. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain low in the near future, and there will be little room for profit floating.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, propylene market prices fluctuated frequently in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7669 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7977 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 4.01%. This month’s low price appeared on July 20 and 21, which was 7652 yuan/ton; this month’s high price appeared on July 11 and 12, which was 8263 yuan/ton, with a monthly amplitude of 7.40%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong started to rise in early July, after two rounds of increase of about 600 yuan/ton. Since the 13th day, the price has gone down, totaling about 650 yuan/ton by the 19th day. From July 22 to 27, the total price rose by 300 yuan/ton. On July 31, it rose again by 50 yuan/ton. At present, the market turnover is around 7950-8100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7950 yuan/ton. At present, the stock of propylene refinery is mostly on the low side. The good news such as the reduction of PDH unit in a large plant in North China has stimulated the refinery to make a small increase in its offer.

Industry chain: Upstream, affected by international trends, crude oil prices adjusted significantly in July, and prices rose sharply at the end of the month, which is good for propylene market. On the downstream side, the domestic acrylic acid Market in July was relatively stable, with a small fluctuation, which had little impact on the propylene market; the propylene oxide market fluctuated significantly this month, with a rapid rise at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.75% and a monthly amplitude of 4.70%. The price fluctuation of epichlorohydrin went up in July, with a monthly increase of 20.55%. At the end of the month, the recent high-level finishing operation is dominant, or has some support for propylene prices; while the recent rise in polypropylene period and spot prices has helped propylene to increase; n-butanol rose in the first half of July, and stabilized in the latter part, which has little impact on propylene; octanol went out of a peak trend in July, After the increase of more than 10%, the price of propylene declined again. Now the price is close to the beginning of the month, which has a negative impact on propylene.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analyst of business cooperative chemical branch thinks that in July, propylene price shocks upward, and now the stock in Shandong is on the low side, and there is a good device reduction, crude oil and polypropylene market prices soar, good propylene market, downstream manufacturers purchase better, it is expected that the price of propylene in Shandong will continue to rise in the short term.