1、 Price trend
According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on January 2 was 3716.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on January 10 was 3240 yuan / ton, down 13.45% in the first ten days of January, up 45.39% compared with the same period last year. On January 10, the LNG commodity index was 79.86, down 0.82 points from yesterday, down 61.78% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 15.99% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
|PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)|
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Products: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 10, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 3250 yuan / ton, and the LNG price of Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3220 yuan / ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan / ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3250 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang guanghuinaomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is 2300 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 3600 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin is 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd 3250 yuan / ton. Liquid prices rose and fell in all regions, and fell as a whole.
Market analysis: after entering January, the decline of liquefied natural gas has not stopped, all the way down, falling 13.45% in the first ten days of January. In recent days, there are rain and snow in many places in the north, and there is the intention of going down to the south. As a result, the road is not smooth, LNG shipment is blocked, the manufacturer’s inventory is on the high side, and the liquid price continues to fall. For a long time, it may face shutdown. At present, most of the lower reaches purchase nearby, and some areas have a rising market. However, the terminal acceptance capacity is limited, but in fact, the delivery is average. In the tide of large-scale price reduction, Henan region has been outstanding in recent days, with continuous increase and fair trading. The main reason is that the temperature drops suddenly, the demand increases, and the supply of foreign products decreases, which leads to the rise of liquid price in Henan against the trend. However, the overall supply and demand of the market is difficult to balance, and the market is still weak. At present, it is close to the annual pass. Factories and schools are off in advance, and gas consumption is reduced. Upstream liquid plants are eager to ship, and the price reduction in some areas is slightly large, or even the price is adjusted twice a day. In the demand side dominated market, the terminal demand directly affects the LNG price. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream production is gradually reduced or shut down, the demand is reduced, the wait-and-see mood of the industry is increased, and the LNG price may further decline.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 6 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are methanol (5.24%), fuel oil (3.70%) and dimethyl ether (2.05%). There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are LNG (- 6.45%), WTI (- 5.54%) and Brent (- 4.71%). This week’s average was – 0.69%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the LNG analyst of the business association, the terminal demand is limited at present, and the northwest region and Inner Mongolia region have a large decline. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream production is gradually reduced or shut down, the demand has declined, and the wait-and-see mood of the operators has increased. It is expected that there will still be a reduction in the short term.