Price Trend

According to the sample data monitored by business associations, from January 1 to June 30, 2019, caprolactam dropped from 12650 yuan/ton to 11766.67 yuan/ton, a total decline of 883.33 yuan/ton, the overall decline of 6.98%. At the beginning of May, it reached a year high of 13950 yuan/ton, up 10.28% from January 1, and then the market began to decline sharply, with prices falling to a new low in recent two years.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In the first half of 2019, the domestic caprolactam market showed an inverted V-shaped trend. In January, the domestic caprolactam market price was mainly consolidated. In the downstream slice market, the willingness of active stock-keeping was not strong, and the purchasing was mainly needed. In the later period, due to the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the market demand was weakening, and the supply and demand in the market were basically balanced. In February-March, due to the centralized start-up of downstream chip manufacturers after the festival, inadequate stock of raw materials before the festival, relatively high purchasing atmosphere, combined with high overall start-up load, market prices continued to rise. In late March, due to the parking and maintenance of some caprolactam plants, supply was slightly tight, and the market maintained a rising trend in April. Early postponement trend, but with the downstream demand gradually weakening, the overall supply and demand returned to stability again, market prices peaked, business returned to wait and see; May-June by the macro-environmental impact, the terminal market demand remained light, although the onset load of upstream and downstream devices in the field fell to a new low in recent years, but the terminal market demand declined. Make caprolactam market prices continue to fall.

Industry chain: The upstream product cyclohexanone market as a whole showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The price of cyclohexanone began to rise to a high level in early January. After the Spring Festival, the demand for cyclohexanone for downstream caprolactam plant stopped and repaired sharply in mid and late March due to the poor demand for chemical fibre orders. The shipment speed of manufacturers slowed down significantly. Cyclohexanone market began to decline, although volatile, the overall situation is still in a downward trend.

In the first half of this year, the upstream related products of downstream PA6 rose or fell differently, which was mainly affected by price fluctuations of caprolactam. At the beginning of the year, supported by raw material pure benzene, it stopped falling flat. After the Spring Festival holidays, it entered a small peak of parking maintenance. Supply was further tight, and the offer went up. Start-up rate has risen in the past two months, and producers have high inventories. The downstream demand is just in need of procurement, the aggregate factory procurement is general, and the follow-up is weak. In the past two months, it has started to weaken, with individual brands bottoming out and rebounding. Downstream purchasing level, maintain just needed. Walking alone is more flexible, but the wait-and-see mood is still heavy.

3. Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the short-term caprolactam market will continue to maintain a weak trend of consolidation, downstream slice demand will remain depressed, Sinopec caprolactam listing prices will rise steadily, leading to a small recovery in market prices, the latter market trend will still be guided by demand, trade disputes on the end of the market impact. It is still evident that with the traditional peak demand season approaching and the recent cost-side pure benzene price sustained upward support, it is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by a steady upward trend in the second half of the year.

On July 29, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 29th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Unit operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Unit started 50% of the operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Unit started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Unit overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Unit put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On July 26, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 7 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 822-824 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 831-833 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rising price of foreign units has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On July 26, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to 56.20 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.18 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 63.46 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.07 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices rose, which has a cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. 。 Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA price trend shocks on the 29th day, the average price in East China is around 5500-5600 yuan/ton, as of the 26th domestic PTA start-up rate is about 89%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 85%, downstream production and sales rate remains high, but PTA market prices are slightly lower, and PX market prices are expected to be in the later period. Maintain shock.

Price Trend

According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregated MDI was 12 350 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week and 12 700 yuan/ton at the weekend. The average market price of aggregated MDI rose by 2.83% in the week, which was 37.80% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week aggregated MDI market prices first slowly declined and then tentatively explored, the overall turnover is weak, inquiries are not positive. This week’s supply side: Cosco announced this week’s guidance price of 12,500 yuan/ton, and continued to maintain stability; East Cao Ruian this week’s guidance price of 12,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and then adjusted to 11,600 yuan/ton. Wanhua and Huntsman shipped evenly. In midweek, the market learned that there were problems with the operation of BASF equipment in Europe and that the supply of BASF manufacturers had been tightened by domestic manufacturers or delivery support. Demand side of the week: Inquiries continue to be poor, and market turnover has been scarce since July; due to the larger impact of pre-inventory, even if the market is frequently speculative news, the industry is still more rational in picking goods. In addition, the price of 141b foaming agent has risen again and the demand for hard foam has been restrained due to the recent special action of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment to enforce the law on ozone-depleting substances. Traders this week: At the beginning of the week, the overall mentality was weak, and the market was full of low-price hearings and short selling in advance. Affected by the supplier’s information in the later period, the quotations were raised, but the shipment situation remained poor.

On the market side, as of Friday (7.26), the aggregate MDI market quotation in East China was strong and upward. The on-site traders are mainly waiting for the announcement of Wanhua’s listing price. The market is informed that the listing expectations are mainly raised, with a small margin. The market price of aggregated MDI in South China is on the strong side. Towards the end of the month, the holders are reluctant to sell and are cautious about the latest listing of the manufacturers. The market quotation of aggregated MDI in North China continues to be strong. The on-site traders are mainly waiting for the announcement of Wanhua’s listing price. The market is informed that the listing expectations are mainly raised, with a small margin.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This week, the price of pure benzene in East China rebounded after falling. Last Friday, due to the decline of pure benzene in the United States, the price gap between domestic and foreign pure benzene remained basically the same, and the downstream of domestic high-price pure benzene conflicts, the price fell to 5100-5200 yuan/ton. Afterwards, due to the decline of domestic restructuring and toluene disproportionation, the supply of pure benzene decreased; the inventory of East China Port dropped to 190,000 tons; the tight supply of pure benzene in the United States supported the continuous rise of the U.S. dollar market, Sinopec increased 200 yuan/ton to 525 yuan/ton in a week, and the spot price of pure benzene in East China rose to 5350-5400 yuan/ton. Aniline: Aniline market is stable and small. In North China market, the cost of aniline hangs upside down because of the strong price of raw material pure benzene. The downstream demand performance is weak, aniline shipments are general, and inventory accumulation. Under the pressure of high cost and high inventory, enterprises in North China had to reduce production and price. King of Jinling increased 50 yuan per ton, which was equal to that of Dongying Factory. After the decline, enterprise inventory slowly declined. In the East China market, due to the fact that the owner of the enterprise supplies the contracted cargo and delivers a small amount of cargo to the market, the enterprises in East China are under less pressure and the price is firm and stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: Basf manufacturers supply tightening, closely watch next week Koth founder’s guide. If the weekly guided price of Cox founder rises, the market price may continue to rise slightly; if the weekly guided price is stable, the market price has little incentive to rise. Business associations aggregate MDI analysts recommend cautiously watching manufacturers guide prices and major manufacturers next week.

From the fluorite price trend chart clearly shows that the fluorite price trend is temporarily stable. According to statistics, the average domestic fluorite price is 3150 yuan/ton as of July 25. Since mid-July, the domestic fluorite price trend has been temporarily stable. According to statistics, the recent domestic price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2900-3100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 3000-3. The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 3000-3300 yuan/ton.

The recent domestic fluorite price trend is temporary. Firstly, the national environmental protection is strictly checked. The fluorite start-up rate is general. In 2019, the domestic mines and flotation plants were partially shut down, which made the spot supply of fluorite on the farm still tense. Some of the holders still maintain high prices for sale, and the domestic fluorite price maintained a high level. Secondly, at the end of the recent peak season of the refrigerant industry, there is no significant improvement in the upstream demand, fluorite prices are only temporarily maintained, but the downstream hydrofluoric acid prices and refrigerant prices are lower, which has a negative impact on the domestic fluorite market. It is expected that the domestic fluorite prices will not last long, later prices or There will be a downturn.

Recently, the price of raw material fluorite is temporarily stable, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly lower.

The average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 12000 yuan/ton as of the 25th day. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has dropped 80 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.66%. The mainstream of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiations in Fujian is 11000-11500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong is 11500-12000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi is 11500-12000 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia is 11000-12000 yuan/ton. The regional hydrofluoric acid market is about 11500 yuan per ton. The hydrofluoric acid market is well supplied and the market price is slightly lower.

In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is more than 60%. Enterprises reflect that there is sufficient supply of hydrofluoric acid spot supply in the field. In recent years, the situation of on-site purchases is general. In recent years, due to poor downstream demand, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers’prices have slightly declined. Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is poor, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions have improved, R22 refrigerant plant surface started at 50%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 17500-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined.

Fluorine chemical industry has recently declined, domestic fluorite prices remain temporary, hydrofluoric acid market prices have been slightly lower, coupled with the recent downward trend in the refrigerant industry, business community fluorite analyst Chen Ling believes that the latter fluorine chemical raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market prices may usher in a downward trend.

On July 24, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 56.93, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.61% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 17.58% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has been temporarily stable, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has shocked, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5300-5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5300-5400 yuan The quotation ranges from 5700 to 5800 yuan/ton, the market price remains volatile, the quotations of enterprises are slightly lower, the downstream start-up is not high, the purchase on demand is the main, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import price of o-phthalic anhydride in the port area has risen, and the quotation has risen. Recently, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is higher, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend shocks, phthalic anhydride market price slightly declines. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride prices fell, isooctanol prices fell, DOP costs fell. DOP price trend is declining, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market volatility is low, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7300 yuan/ton, downstream prices are constantly falling, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to decline slightly later.