Price Trend
According to the sample data monitored by business associations, from January 1 to June 30, 2019, caprolactam dropped from 12650 yuan/ton to 11766.67 yuan/ton, a total decline of 883.33 yuan/ton, the overall decline of 6.98%. At the beginning of May, it reached a year high of 13950 yuan/ton, up 10.28% from January 1, and then the market began to decline sharply, with prices falling to a new low in recent two years.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
II. Market Analysis
Products: In the first half of 2019, the domestic caprolactam market showed an inverted V-shaped trend. In January, the domestic caprolactam market price was mainly consolidated. In the downstream slice market, the willingness of active stock-keeping was not strong, and the purchasing was mainly needed. In the later period, due to the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the market demand was weakening, and the supply and demand in the market were basically balanced. In February-March, due to the centralized start-up of downstream chip manufacturers after the festival, inadequate stock of raw materials before the festival, relatively high purchasing atmosphere, combined with high overall start-up load, market prices continued to rise. In late March, due to the parking and maintenance of some caprolactam plants, supply was slightly tight, and the market maintained a rising trend in April. Early postponement trend, but with the downstream demand gradually weakening, the overall supply and demand returned to stability again, market prices peaked, business returned to wait and see; May-June by the macro-environmental impact, the terminal market demand remained light, although the onset load of upstream and downstream devices in the field fell to a new low in recent years, but the terminal market demand declined. Make caprolactam market prices continue to fall.
| PVA |
Industry chain: The upstream product cyclohexanone market as a whole showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The price of cyclohexanone began to rise to a high level in early January. After the Spring Festival, the demand for cyclohexanone for downstream caprolactam plant stopped and repaired sharply in mid and late March due to the poor demand for chemical fibre orders. The shipment speed of manufacturers slowed down significantly. Cyclohexanone market began to decline, although volatile, the overall situation is still in a downward trend.
In the first half of this year, the upstream related products of downstream PA6 rose or fell differently, which was mainly affected by price fluctuations of caprolactam. At the beginning of the year, supported by raw material pure benzene, it stopped falling flat. After the Spring Festival holidays, it entered a small peak of parking maintenance. Supply was further tight, and the offer went up. Start-up rate has risen in the past two months, and producers have high inventories. The downstream demand is just in need of procurement, the aggregate factory procurement is general, and the follow-up is weak. In the past two months, it has started to weaken, with individual brands bottoming out and rebounding. Downstream purchasing level, maintain just needed. Walking alone is more flexible, but the wait-and-see mood is still heavy.
| PVA FIBER |
3. Future Market Forecast
Caprolactam analysts believe that the short-term caprolactam market will continue to maintain a weak trend of consolidation, downstream slice demand will remain depressed, Sinopec caprolactam listing prices will rise steadily, leading to a small recovery in market prices, the latter market trend will still be guided by demand, trade disputes on the end of the market impact. It is still evident that with the traditional peak demand season approaching and the recent cost-side pure benzene price sustained upward support, it is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by a steady upward trend in the second half of the year.