With the gradual strengthening of international crude oil price and the smooth promotion of domestic resumption of production, the price of chemical products also ushered in “spring”.

PVC price rose 23% in two months

On May 25, most of the chemical commodity prices in the domestic futures market strengthened. By the end of the afternoon, PVC main contracts rose 0.58% to close at 6070 yuan / ton in 2009.

Affected by novel coronavirus pneumonia, crude oil prices and global demand declined, PVC futures prices had a short-term crash in mid March to early April. However, as international crude oil prices recovered, PVC prices gradually recovered their previous decline.

From April 1 to now, PVC main contract in 2009 started up from 4950 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 23% in less than two months.

“As a commodity with strong financial attribute, PVC futures price has a significant impact on the spot market. In the near future, PVC price is active, which also drives the spot price to strengthen synchronously. ” Tong he, an analyst with business news agency, pointed out in an interview with securities times · e company.

As of May 22, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is around 5700 yuan / ton to 6100 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 5980 yuan / ton ~ 6080 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is around 6030 yuan / ton ~ 6080 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 6180 yuan / ton ~ 6200 yuan / ton, and the real deal can be negotiated. The spot price of domestic PVC continued to rise, the center of gravity moved up, the low-end price was less, and the mainstream price was around 6000 yuan, which boosted market sentiment.

“The weak price of PVC in the early stage makes the market have the phenomenon of partial profit hanging upside down. However, after the recent rise, PVC manufacturers are generally in the state of profit, and they have a strong mentality of pricing.” Tong he said that the export volume of PVC was large before, but the demand of overseas market affected by the epidemic is very weak, so the main focus of the current market is the domestic market. After April and may, infrastructure construction and real estate have also entered the peak season. The recovery of pipe and profile enterprises is fast, and the demand for PVC has been boosted. In addition, the demand for cable and medical industry continues to be strong, and the demand for other downstream products is still slowly recovering.

At the same time, some PVC production enterprises still have maintenance plans in the near future, the output is reduced, the social inventory continues to decline, the supply of goods in South China is still tight, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, some areas have the market for looting goods, the practitioners are optimistic, and the supply side is good for PVC price rising.

Strong price of various chemical products

In addition to PVC, the recent domestic chemical commodity prices have shown a warming trend. The price of raw materials has increased significantly, boosted by the recent concept of helmet demand.

According to Baocheng Futures Research Report, the price of some ABS helmet materials rose rapidly last week, with some brands rising by more than 1000 yuan / ton. PS and EPS also have some materials for helmets production, so market buying is also boosted. Styrene demand is expected to strengthen. With a notice from the Ministry of public security not forcing electric vehicles, styrene coolly fell back. On the whole, styrene continues to maintain a shock up state of two in and one out.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in last week’s list of commodity prices, there were 12 commodities rising month on month in rubber and plastic sector, including one commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were pet (5.38%), ABS (3.46%) and PVC (3.34%). There are two kinds of commodities with a decline in price on a month-on-month basis, and one kind of commodity with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top two products with a decline are PP (melt blown) (- 9.3%) and PA66 (- 0.78%).

“Previously, the market had judged that after the outbreak, the gradual resumption of production in China will bring a certain demand for compensation. At present, the market has a rebound of replenishment. Judging from the commodity price trend in April and the first ten days of May, we can be sure that this trend has appeared. ” Talking about the factors of the recent strengthening of domestic chemical commodity prices, Cheng Xiaoyong, director of Baocheng futures financial research institute, told the securities times · e company that the rising of chemical commodity prices has a lot to do with the cost recovery brought by the recovery of international crude oil prices. In addition, the “two sessions” are currently held, and the market expectation for policies also has an incentive effect on commodity rebound.

Can chemical products “spring” last?

Is this trend of chemical commodity price recovery sustainable?

“At present, it is worth noting that the replenishment of chemical products demand brought about by the squeeze of orders in the early stage may have basically ended by the middle of May. If the chemical products in the later stage want to maintain the rising channel, it depends on the sustainability of demand replenishment.” According to Cheng Xiaoyong, the previous order squeeze mainly focused on the period of complete shutdown in February, with a total time of about one month. PMI’s orders in hand data has rebounded from March’s high, and after squeezing order delivery, the strength of catching up will be weakened. In terms of this logic, if the chemicals enter the ascending channel again, it needs more advantages.

He believes that the whole chemical industry has entered a stage of rebound caused by the demand supplement brought by the resumption of production. However, to say that it has completely entered the recovery stage, this definition cannot be made at present. The price rise of different varieties is closely related to the demand. PVC and other products are closely related to real estate infrastructure construction, so the strength of rebound is high. The price trend of chemicals in the later period depends on whether there are more boosting factors in the subsequent demand.

“At present, it is at the key point of switching between the old logic and the new logic. The global epidemic is still continuing. Although the possibility of negative oil price after the crude oil recovers is not very great, it will also encounter the ceiling after rebounding to $40 / barrel.” According to Cheng Xiaoyong, the current recovery of crude oil price is not caused by the recovery of overseas demand, but by the spontaneous production reduction of enterprises. The scale of spontaneous production reduction in the market is a little larger than the scale of the original agreement on production reduction. The rebound is a contraction of the supply side, not an increase in demand.

In view of the price trend of PVC products, Tong he thinks that the price of PVC is at a relatively high point at present, but at present, it includes macro policies and the convening of the national two sessions. In the short term, it is a favorable factor for PVC, and there is still some room for commodity prices to rise.

In May, polybutadiene rubber suffered a weak shock. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in early May was 7800 yuan / ton, then rose to the monthly high of 7875 yuan / ton, and fell to 7712 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall price at the end of the month was 1.12% lower than that at the beginning of the month. On May 30, the CIS polybutadiene rubber commodity index was 23.17, which was flat with yesterday, 77.37% lower than 102.40 (2011-09-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 2.48% higher than 22.61, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In May, the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was insufficient, and the pressure on the supply and demand side was still large. In May, the start-up of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant was normal, the overall start-up rate was 60-70%, and the start-up rate was around 70% in the first and middle of this month. Although the start-up at the end of this month declined, the overall inventory pressure was still large. According to the monitoring of the business agency, by the end of the month, Shunding units such as Yanshan, Qilu, Maoming, Jinzhou, Daqing, Dushanzi, Sichuan, and Lande had been started normally; the early-stage shutdown of Yangzi Petrochemical was being restarted; Huayu, Shengyou and Fuxiang continued to stop. The downstream tire factories started to increase slightly, and more cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was purchased on demand. By the end of May, the operating rate of half steel tire was 62%, and that of all steel tire was 71%. According to the business agency, the output of synthetic rubber in January April 2010 was 2.067 million tons, down 5.1% year-on-year, while the output of tire outer tubes in January April 2010 was 218072000 pieces, down 17.4% year-on-year. From the data point of view, although the output of synthetic rubber has also declined at present, the output of tyres affected by the epidemic situation and export has declined more than that of the same period last year, and the pressure of supply and demand from the perspective of industrial chain is still large.

In May, the price of international crude oil rebounded sharply, and the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene raw materials rose with the trend. The cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber formed a certain support. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene rose in May in China. At the beginning of the month, the price of butadiene in China was 3890 yuan / ton, rising to a high of 4345 yuan / ton in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, the price fell to 4184 yuan / ton, up 7.56% from the beginning of the month as a whole.

Future forecast: according to business analysts, although the price of raw materials has rebounded at present, the negative influence of demand is still strong. On the whole, if there is no maintenance plan for later petrochemical manufacturers or crude oil does not rise again, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will still be weak.

1、 Price trend

This week’s lead market (5.25-5.29) rose first and then fell. The average price in the domestic market was 14418.75 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 14381.25 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly drop of 0.26%.

On May 29, the lead commodity index was 87.52, down 0.23 points from yesterday, 34.69% from 134.01 (2016-11-29), and 17.27% higher than 74.63, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market trend analysis

In terms of futures market, the trend is weak this week. Affected by foreign events, the trend continues to fall this week, with a weekly drop of about 1%. Shanghai lead rose at the beginning of the week and then entered the decline channel. On Friday, it finally closed at 14165 yuan / ton, down about 320 yuan / ton.

Influenced by Shanghai lead, the price of domestic spot market remained stable on Monday, and continued to decline after Tuesday’s price rise. As of Friday, the price of spot market was around 14200-14350 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of only 0.26%. May is the traditional off-season of downstream lead batteries. At present, the stock of lead ingots in the spot market is relatively high, and the market trading atmosphere is slightly poor. In addition, the import of lead into the market this week, there are many sources of goods in the market. With the increase of starting load of manufacturers in Jiangxi and Yunnan, the supply of regenerated lead is better.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 21st week of 2020 (5.25-5.29), there are seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which silver (1.70%), aluminum (1.56%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (0.93%) are the top three commodities. There are 5 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were zinc (- 0.65%), lead (- 0.26%) and nickel (- 0.21%). This week’s average was 0.22%.

The business agency predicts that the favorable impact of the two conferences on policies will further affect the metal market next week, and the commencement of domestic industries will gradually get on the right track. The overall market environment is good. The spot lead market has sufficient supply in the near future, and some low-cost goods sources appear. In the short term, the low price of lead will mainly fluctuate. In June, some domestic lead ingot manufacturers have maintenance plans, and the supply will be reduced There will be a small support for market prices.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on May 28 was 2533.33 yuan / ton, down 5% from last Thursday (21), 13.14% from the beginning of May and 32.2% from the same period last year. On May 27, the LNG commodity index was 62.85, down 0.66 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 69.92% from 208.96, the highest on December 25, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

According to the business data monitoring, as of 28, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas is 2533.33 yuan / ton, the price in Inner Mongolia is around 2500 yuan / ton, the price in Shaanxi is around 2600 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan is around 2800 yuan / ton, the price in Shanxi is around 2700 yuan / ton, the price in Xinjiang is around 2200-3000 yuan / ton, and the liquid price in all regions has not declined to a certain extent The trend has been slowed down and tends to be stable. In some areas, the price of LNG market is still weak as a whole, due to the effect of price reduction and storage arrangement in the early stage is acceptable.

In recent days, the decline of domestic LNG has not stopped, falling continuously. On the 21st and 22nd of the NPC and CPPCC in Beijing, factories in some regions limited production and stopped production, which led to the decline of industrial gas consumption. At the same time, the number of vehicles used for goods decreased, and the sales volume of gas stations also declined. The price continued to decline. With the end of the NPC and CPPCC, the demand increased to a certain extent. However, in the off-season of consumption, the terminal demand was difficult to increase, and other regions were not optimistic, and the price was under pressure. Due to the impact of low price, the sales pressure of the liquid plant is increasing. In the off-season demand, the inventory of the manufacturer is on the high side, and the continuous price reduction stimulates the shipment. At the same time, the step-by-step reduction of raw gas clarification on May 20 gives the liquid plant a certain space for price reduction. However, with the continuous decline for several days, the liquid plant has no profit to speak of. Considering the cost, the decline is slower than before, and the stock in some regions is small after the decline Up, eventually difficult to drive the market. At present, the start-up load of some liquid plants has been reduced to reduce the inventory pressure, and some liquid plants have maintenance plans. However, the contradiction between market supply and demand still exists. In addition, recently, imported LNG ships are intensively landed, the price has been continuously reduced, the transportation radius has been continuously expanded, the competition with domestic LNG is fierce, the end-users have more price comparison to get the goods, the domestic liquid plants have a general shipping situation, and the market delivery and investment atmosphere is weak. In the absence of obvious improvement in the demand side, the domestic LNG market is in a difficult situation, and in the short term, the pressure on the liquid price is low or normal.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on May 27, 2020, among which WTI crude oil (3.31%), Brent crude oil (1.72%) and gasoline (1.42%) are the top three commodities. There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, the first two products falling are dimethyl ether (- 2.37%) and liquefied natural gas (- 1.04%). The average price of this day is 0.47%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of business club, the current consumption is in the off-season, with sufficient gas source, no obvious improvement in market demand, weak terminal receiving, and difficult to achieve a short-term balance between supply and demand. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market price of epichlorohydrin was mainly stable on May 27, with some enterprises adjusting their prices. On May 27, the average price quoted by domestic epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10900 yuan / ton, down 0.91% compared with yesterday, and up 10.10% compared with May 6. In this stage (5.6-5.27), the overall market price of epichlorohydrin showed a fluctuating upward trend. Recently, the price of propylene raw material has declined, and the cost support has weakened. However, the spot supply of epichlorohydrin is in short supply, and the downstream just needs replenishment. The mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin market on May 27 is about 10500-11000 yuan / ton.

The epichlorohydrin commodity index on May 26 was 77.68, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.90% from 133.71 (2019-10-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 65.81% from 46.85, the lowest point on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

On May 26, the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong continued to decline. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province rose sharply and fell sharply, and then it held steady again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th day, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th day, some enterprises continued to increase by 50 yuan / ton. On the 11th day, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th day, it increased by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th day, it continued to increase by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the 14th day, it increased by 50-100 yuan / ton again. On the 15th day, it still increased by 50-100 yuan / ton on weekends Until 22, the upward trend remained unchanged. The daily upward trend was 50-100 yuan / ton. On 22, the price finally began to stabilize. On the weekend, the price of propylene fell slightly. On 25, the price of propylene fell again by 50-150 yuan / ton. On 26, the price still fell by about 100 yuan / ton. The market turnover was between 6670-6950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 6700 yuan / ton. 26 downstream epoxy resin high-level finishing operation, downstream just need replenishment.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are eight kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on May 26, 2020, among which the top three commodities are ox (5.00%), bisphenol A (3.66%) and R22 (2.30%). There are 15 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are R134a (- 7.38%), lithium iron phosphate (- 2.63%), lithium carbonate (- 1.46%). The average price of this day was – 0.06%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business club, it is expected that the market of epichlorohydrin will be dominated by high-level consolidation and operation in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information guidance of all aspects of the market.