1、 Price trend
According to data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on May 28 was 2533.33 yuan / ton, down 5% from last Thursday (21), 13.14% from the beginning of May and 32.2% from the same period last year. On May 27, the LNG commodity index was 62.85, down 0.66 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, down 69.92% from 208.96, the highest on December 25, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
|PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)|
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
According to the business data monitoring, as of 28, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas is 2533.33 yuan / ton, the price in Inner Mongolia is around 2500 yuan / ton, the price in Shaanxi is around 2600 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan is around 2800 yuan / ton, the price in Shanxi is around 2700 yuan / ton, the price in Xinjiang is around 2200-3000 yuan / ton, and the liquid price in all regions has not declined to a certain extent The trend has been slowed down and tends to be stable. In some areas, the price of LNG market is still weak as a whole, due to the effect of price reduction and storage arrangement in the early stage is acceptable.
In recent days, the decline of domestic LNG has not stopped, falling continuously. On the 21st and 22nd of the NPC and CPPCC in Beijing, factories in some regions limited production and stopped production, which led to the decline of industrial gas consumption. At the same time, the number of vehicles used for goods decreased, and the sales volume of gas stations also declined. The price continued to decline. With the end of the NPC and CPPCC, the demand increased to a certain extent. However, in the off-season of consumption, the terminal demand was difficult to increase, and other regions were not optimistic, and the price was under pressure. Due to the impact of low price, the sales pressure of the liquid plant is increasing. In the off-season demand, the inventory of the manufacturer is on the high side, and the continuous price reduction stimulates the shipment. At the same time, the step-by-step reduction of raw gas clarification on May 20 gives the liquid plant a certain space for price reduction. However, with the continuous decline for several days, the liquid plant has no profit to speak of. Considering the cost, the decline is slower than before, and the stock in some regions is small after the decline Up, eventually difficult to drive the market. At present, the start-up load of some liquid plants has been reduced to reduce the inventory pressure, and some liquid plants have maintenance plans. However, the contradiction between market supply and demand still exists. In addition, recently, imported LNG ships are intensively landed, the price has been continuously reduced, the transportation radius has been continuously expanded, the competition with domestic LNG is fierce, the end-users have more price comparison to get the goods, the domestic liquid plants have a general shipping situation, and the market delivery and investment atmosphere is weak. In the absence of obvious improvement in the demand side, the domestic LNG market is in a difficult situation, and in the short term, the pressure on the liquid price is low or normal.
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on May 27, 2020, among which WTI crude oil (3.31%), Brent crude oil (1.72%) and gasoline (1.42%) are the top three commodities. There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, the first two products falling are dimethyl ether (- 2.37%) and liquefied natural gas (- 1.04%). The average price of this day is 0.47%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the LNG analyst of business club, the current consumption is in the off-season, with sufficient gas source, no obvious improvement in market demand, weak terminal receiving, and difficult to achieve a short-term balance between supply and demand. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be stable in the short term.