Insufficient demand vs rising raw material prices,The price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fluctuated in May

In May, polybutadiene rubber suffered a weak shock. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in early May was 7800 yuan / ton, then rose to the monthly high of 7875 yuan / ton, and fell to 7712 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall price at the end of the month was 1.12% lower than that at the beginning of the month. On May 30, the CIS polybutadiene rubber commodity index was 23.17, which was flat with yesterday, 77.37% lower than 102.40 (2011-09-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 2.48% higher than 22.61, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)


In May, the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was insufficient, and the pressure on the supply and demand side was still large. In May, the start-up of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant was normal, the overall start-up rate was 60-70%, and the start-up rate was around 70% in the first and middle of this month. Although the start-up at the end of this month declined, the overall inventory pressure was still large. According to the monitoring of the business agency, by the end of the month, Shunding units such as Yanshan, Qilu, Maoming, Jinzhou, Daqing, Dushanzi, Sichuan, and Lande had been started normally; the early-stage shutdown of Yangzi Petrochemical was being restarted; Huayu, Shengyou and Fuxiang continued to stop. The downstream tire factories started to increase slightly, and more cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was purchased on demand. By the end of May, the operating rate of half steel tire was 62%, and that of all steel tire was 71%. According to the business agency, the output of synthetic rubber in January April 2010 was 2.067 million tons, down 5.1% year-on-year, while the output of tire outer tubes in January April 2010 was 218072000 pieces, down 17.4% year-on-year. From the data point of view, although the output of synthetic rubber has also declined at present, the output of tyres affected by the epidemic situation and export has declined more than that of the same period last year, and the pressure of supply and demand from the perspective of industrial chain is still large.


In May, the price of international crude oil rebounded sharply, and the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene raw materials rose with the trend. The cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber formed a certain support. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene rose in May in China. At the beginning of the month, the price of butadiene in China was 3890 yuan / ton, rising to a high of 4345 yuan / ton in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, the price fell to 4184 yuan / ton, up 7.56% from the beginning of the month as a whole.

Future forecast: according to business analysts, although the price of raw materials has rebounded at present, the negative influence of demand is still strong. On the whole, if there is no maintenance plan for later petrochemical manufacturers or crude oil does not rise again, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will still be weak.