With the gradual strengthening of international crude oil price and the smooth promotion of domestic resumption of production, the price of chemical products also ushered in “spring”.
PVC price rose 23% in two months
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On May 25, most of the chemical commodity prices in the domestic futures market strengthened. By the end of the afternoon, PVC main contracts rose 0.58% to close at 6070 yuan / ton in 2009.
Affected by novel coronavirus pneumonia, crude oil prices and global demand declined, PVC futures prices had a short-term crash in mid March to early April. However, as international crude oil prices recovered, PVC prices gradually recovered their previous decline.
From April 1 to now, PVC main contract in 2009 started up from 4950 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 23% in less than two months.
“As a commodity with strong financial attribute, PVC futures price has a significant impact on the spot market. In the near future, PVC price is active, which also drives the spot price to strengthen synchronously. ” Tong he, an analyst with business news agency, pointed out in an interview with securities times · e company.
As of May 22, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is around 5700 yuan / ton to 6100 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 5980 yuan / ton ~ 6080 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is around 6030 yuan / ton ~ 6080 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 6180 yuan / ton ~ 6200 yuan / ton, and the real deal can be negotiated. The spot price of domestic PVC continued to rise, the center of gravity moved up, the low-end price was less, and the mainstream price was around 6000 yuan, which boosted market sentiment.
“The weak price of PVC in the early stage makes the market have the phenomenon of partial profit hanging upside down. However, after the recent rise, PVC manufacturers are generally in the state of profit, and they have a strong mentality of pricing.” Tong he said that the export volume of PVC was large before, but the demand of overseas market affected by the epidemic is very weak, so the main focus of the current market is the domestic market. After April and may, infrastructure construction and real estate have also entered the peak season. The recovery of pipe and profile enterprises is fast, and the demand for PVC has been boosted. In addition, the demand for cable and medical industry continues to be strong, and the demand for other downstream products is still slowly recovering.
At the same time, some PVC production enterprises still have maintenance plans in the near future, the output is reduced, the social inventory continues to decline, the supply of goods in South China is still tight, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, some areas have the market for looting goods, the practitioners are optimistic, and the supply side is good for PVC price rising.
Strong price of various chemical products
In addition to PVC, the recent domestic chemical commodity prices have shown a warming trend. The price of raw materials has increased significantly, boosted by the recent concept of helmet demand.
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According to Baocheng Futures Research Report, the price of some ABS helmet materials rose rapidly last week, with some brands rising by more than 1000 yuan / ton. PS and EPS also have some materials for helmets production, so market buying is also boosted. Styrene demand is expected to strengthen. With a notice from the Ministry of public security not forcing electric vehicles, styrene coolly fell back. On the whole, styrene continues to maintain a shock up state of two in and one out.
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in last week’s list of commodity prices, there were 12 commodities rising month on month in rubber and plastic sector, including one commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were pet (5.38%), ABS (3.46%) and PVC (3.34%). There are two kinds of commodities with a decline in price on a month-on-month basis, and one kind of commodity with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top two products with a decline are PP (melt blown) (- 9.3%) and PA66 (- 0.78%).
“Previously, the market had judged that after the outbreak, the gradual resumption of production in China will bring a certain demand for compensation. At present, the market has a rebound of replenishment. Judging from the commodity price trend in April and the first ten days of May, we can be sure that this trend has appeared. ” Talking about the factors of the recent strengthening of domestic chemical commodity prices, Cheng Xiaoyong, director of Baocheng futures financial research institute, told the securities times · e company that the rising of chemical commodity prices has a lot to do with the cost recovery brought by the recovery of international crude oil prices. In addition, the “two sessions” are currently held, and the market expectation for policies also has an incentive effect on commodity rebound.
Can chemical products “spring” last?
Is this trend of chemical commodity price recovery sustainable?
“At present, it is worth noting that the replenishment of chemical products demand brought about by the squeeze of orders in the early stage may have basically ended by the middle of May. If the chemical products in the later stage want to maintain the rising channel, it depends on the sustainability of demand replenishment.” According to Cheng Xiaoyong, the previous order squeeze mainly focused on the period of complete shutdown in February, with a total time of about one month. PMI’s orders in hand data has rebounded from March’s high, and after squeezing order delivery, the strength of catching up will be weakened. In terms of this logic, if the chemicals enter the ascending channel again, it needs more advantages.
He believes that the whole chemical industry has entered a stage of rebound caused by the demand supplement brought by the resumption of production. However, to say that it has completely entered the recovery stage, this definition cannot be made at present. The price rise of different varieties is closely related to the demand. PVC and other products are closely related to real estate infrastructure construction, so the strength of rebound is high. The price trend of chemicals in the later period depends on whether there are more boosting factors in the subsequent demand.
“At present, it is at the key point of switching between the old logic and the new logic. The global epidemic is still continuing. Although the possibility of negative oil price after the crude oil recovers is not very great, it will also encounter the ceiling after rebounding to $40 / barrel.” According to Cheng Xiaoyong, the current recovery of crude oil price is not caused by the recovery of overseas demand, but by the spontaneous production reduction of enterprises. The scale of spontaneous production reduction in the market is a little larger than the scale of the original agreement on production reduction. The rebound is a contraction of the supply side, not an increase in demand.
In view of the price trend of PVC products, Tong he thinks that the price of PVC is at a relatively high point at present, but at present, it includes macro policies and the convening of the national two sessions. In the short term, it is a favorable factor for PVC, and there is still some room for commodity prices to rise.
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