On October 16, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 65.45, down 0.97 points from yesterday, down 45.52% from 120.13 (2012-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 35.17% from 48.42, the lowest point on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In recent years, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market continues to decline. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is low. The downstream factories maintain rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure increases, and the high-end transaction is blocked. Recently, the factory inventory has increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is declining. In East China, 6700-6900 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for neighboring method and 6100-6200 yuan / ton for naphthalene method; in North China, 6600-6800 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for phthalic anhydride market. Most of the manufacturers in the site have price callback, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is based on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is sufficient, and the downstream demand of phthalic anhydride is also strong. The demand for phthalic anhydride decreased and the price trend of phthalic anhydride decreased slightly.

In recent years, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec fell to 6700 yuan / ton. Due to the restart of maintenance devices of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of goods inside the site increased, the import price of phthalic anhydride in the port area decreased, and the quotation fell. In recent years, the price of phthalic acid in the port decreased, the stock in the port was low, and the external quotation of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. See the detailed list. On the other hand, the price trend of phthalic anhydride market continued to decline due to the drop in the price of upstream raw materials ortho benzene. The downstream DOP price is slightly lower, the price of isooctanol is lower, and the DOP cost is lower. The price of DOP is fluctuating, the downstream demand of DOP is normal, the customer’s purchasing enthusiasm is general, the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and declining, the high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market is slightly reduced to 7500-7900 yuan / ton, and the downstream price trend is declining, but the upstream ox price is firm, affected by the cost support, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain a slightly lower trend in the later period.

I. price trend:

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market of PA6 in the third quarter of 2019 was generally volatile and strong, and most brand quotations rose in terms of results. As of September 30, the main offer price of Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about 14566.67 yuan / ton, up nearly 5.56% from the beginning of the quarter.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of upstream caprolactam liquid, the price at the beginning of the quarter was stable and rising. The market spot transaction price range was 11500-12400 yuan / ton, with a narrow fluctuation at the beginning of the quarter. And caprolactam plant parking maintenance device more, the market spot supply is tight. In the aspect of downstream polymerization, with the restart of some maintenance units in Fujian, the overall start-up of polymerization increased slightly, the demand for caprolactam was slightly better, and the supply and demand were supported by the market; in August, the start-up rate of caprolactam liquid in the upstream of PA66 increased, the spot supply in the market improved, and the support for the supply and demand was weakened. At the beginning of the first quarter, the market of lactam liquid softened and weakened, and the focus of spot transactions of caprolactam liquid in East China fell. The upstream product cyclohexanone was adjusted by shock, and the cost support was weakened. The downstream slice Market is light, the polymerization plant is hard to make profits, and the enthusiasm of raw material procurement is not high. In the middle of the quarter, the spot supply balance was achieved, the profit space of the factory was narrowed, the price of the merchants was relatively high, and the caprolactam market was in a stalemate; by September, the trend returned to a strong performance, the low price spot was gradually reduced, and the market was up and down. In addition, the sharp shock of international crude oil has affected the linkage rise of pure benzene at the cost end, and the producers and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. The downstream inquiry atmosphere has improved, and the enthusiasm of raw material procurement in slicing market has improved in the middle of the year affected by the “double festival” stock preparation. The stock preparation is basically completed near the end of September, and the demand returns to stable. In this quarter, caprolactam may be in stable operation temporarily. Caprolactam has certain support for PA6 cost. In the first half of the quarter, due to the abundant spot supply of PA6, the weak demand in the downstream caused the weak fluctuation of spot price. At the end of the quarter, under the influence of the “golden nine” traditional peak season, the stock demand improved. However, the supply of PA6 in domestic factories has a trend of expansion. After the price of merchants has been increased, the price has been recovered and stabilized. Domestic buyers and sellers hold a cautious attitude and wait-and-see operation is cautious.

3. Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in the third quarter, the domestic PA6 market was adjusted by shocks. At the end of the quarter, it was boosted by the hot stock in the traditional peak season, increasing demand and price exploration. The upstream caprolactam has certain support for the cost end of PA6 in this quarter. At present, the spot supply of PA6 in China has an expanding trend, and the down stream stock up before the festival has brought a staged peak season. At present, the demand has turned to flat. It is expected that PA6 will continue to be sorted out in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, since last Friday (10.11), the domestic methanol market has been surging and falling back. As of October 15, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2352 yuan / ton. The price is 12.11% higher than that of the same period last month, and 28.92% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the methanol inventory in Northwest China is not high, and the price is firm; the methanol market in Bohai Rim region is generally traded, and the market is mainly on the sidelines; the methanol delivery in Huaihai region is not good, and the methanol market price in some regions has a significant decline; the methanol market in Central China is slightly traded, and the mentality of traders is weak; the downward trend of futures has significantly depressed the spot price of the port. The demand for downstream olefins is stable. Although the inventory of methanol manufacturers in Northwest China is not high and the price remains firm and consolidated, at the current high price level, the downstream users in consumption areas such as Shandong mainly consume raw material inventory, and the willingness to receive goods is not high. Under the pressure of weak overall transaction, the prices of some manufacturers around Bohai Sea and Huaihai sea are reversed. On the port side, the futures went down, the port spot fluctuated with the market, and the operator’s mentality was negative, and the transaction was not good.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is on the lookout for consolidation. The weak market of raw methanol is dominated by consolidation, and the cost support continues to weaken. There is no obvious negative effect on the formaldehyde Market for the time being. The offer of formaldehyde industry is temporarily stable. At present, the transaction atmosphere in most regions is mainly light, and it is difficult to boost the delivery. In the short term, the domestic formaldehyde market may be stable, medium and small weak.

Influence of formaldehyde on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and formaldehyde in the business association, the price change trend of methanol and formaldehyde is basically the same from September 15 to October 6, and the price change range of formaldehyde is the same as that of methanol in the whole community. As an important downstream of methanol, the price of formaldehyde has shown a downward trend since Oct. 7. The downward trend of methanol is slightly behind that of formaldehyde, but the overall trend remains the same. It is expected that the price of methanol will also decline.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market continues to be weak. Under the sentiment of buying up and not buying down, downstream users mostly just need to receive goods, and spot market transactions are weak. In this context, some enterprises mainly engaged in spot sales still have the expectation of increasing inventory, the contradiction between supply and demand continues to be sharp, the low-level competition of suppliers is fierce, and the atmosphere of short market is strong. Tianjin Bohua Yongli reduced the negative, while Jiangsu Thorpe stopped unexpectedly for a short time, which had no significant impact on the market. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will continue to be weak in the short term.

Influence of acetic acid on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and acetic acid in the business association, the price change trend and range of the two are basically the same. The acetic acid market is light, and the methanol market will also be affected by the negative under the condition of low downstream demand.

Dimethyl ether: the market price of dimethyl ether is generally stable, the high price manufacturers call back, the market demand is not large, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively light. The average price of DME in North China is 3580 yuan / ton, which is 17 yuan / ton lower than that in the previous working day. The overall price of the regions along the Yangtze River and southwest China has increased by about 30 yuan / ton, while that of Hebei has declined, while that of other regions is mainly stable.

Influence of dimethyl ether on methanol: according to the trend comparison chart of methanol and dimethyl ether, the price change trend and range of them are basically the same. The domestic market price of DME is stable as a whole, and the price of some high-priced manufacturers in Hebei Province has dropped. The industry has a strong wait-and-see attitude, but there are many manufacturers who have been operating steadily and secretly, and some of them have made profits. In the near future, some of the parking manufacturers have not yet started, and their production capacity will gradually increase. In addition, the methanol cost support is insufficient, the methanol market will decline, and the market demand for dimethyl ether is not high. It is expected that the domestic market price of DME may fall in the short term.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of the business community: in the later stage, the downstream delivery is poor, and the demand side support is weak, but at the same time, the low inventory support price in the upstream main production area is strong, with some support. The methanol analysts of the business community expect that the domestic methanol market will be stagnant in the short term, and some areas will have a downward pressure. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to downstream mentality, safety supervision, operation of olefin unit, port inventory, freight level and futures trend.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market fell sharply this week by 4.83%. At present, the quotation in Henan is around 3050-3100/ton; Shandong is about 3200-3350 yuan/ton; Hebei is about 3350-3450 yuan/ton; Shaanxi is about 2950 yuan/ton; Jiangsu is about 3200-3300 yuan/ton; Zhejiang is about 3350-3450 yuan/ton. Around 3,400-3,500 yuan per ton in South China.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: Domestic acetic acid continued to weaken this week, the industry started at a high level, the overall starting rate maintained at about 90%, affected by the poor delivery of National Day, enterprises in order to alleviate warehouse pressure and yield more profits to ship, but the downstream market started flat, cautious buying, more wait-and-see attitude, in this state, further stimulate acetic acid enterprises to reduce the quotation to ease the pressure of competition in the industry.

Industry chain: upstream, domestic methanol enterprises have low inventories, downstream market replenishment is active, enterprise shipments are not pressurized, rising by 3.29% in a week, currently about 2,386 yuan/ton; domestic acetate and vinyl acetate industries are more stable in a week, acetic acid prices fall, resulting in inadequate cost support and poor downstream demand, PTA market is expected to remain soft in the short run; The downstream demand is limited, and the recent centralized overhaul of enterprises has led to a reduction in spot supply, which to some extent alleviates the downstream space.

International: This week, the supply of acetic acid in North America will be reduced due to Celanese parking, and it will run at a high level within a week. At present, it is about 610 US dollars/ton; the overall market of acetic acid in Asia is flat and the price is stable, currently 435-465 US dollars/ton; and the supply of acetic acid in Europe will be somewhat tight, with a slight increase in the week, and the current quotation is about 660 Euro/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Acetic acid analysts of business associations believe that the acetic acid market continues to weaken. Although Tianjin Bohua and Jiangsu Thorpe have reduced their negative operation, the overall spot supply of the market is abundant and the downstream market is just in poor demand. Competitive pressures of enterprises around the world have increased and they have yielded profits to ship. Although the raw material methanol market remains high, it has no significant positive support for acetic acid prices; the downstream market and export performance are low. There is no sign of warming up in the short term. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will remain weak in a short time.

Price Trend

II. Market Analysis

Mannheim potassium sulfate 50% powder mainstream factory price 2800-3100 yuan/ton, 52% powder factory price 2900-3200 yuan/ton, South China price is higher, preferential range is 50-100 yuan. Qinghai water-salt system powdery potassium sulfate mainstream arrival quotation is about 2550-2600 yuan/ton, the transaction is limited, the actual transaction can be discussed.

Luo Potassium plant resumed production. At present, the pre-market stock is still waiting to be shipped. 51% of the powder arrival price is 3100 yuan/ton, 52% of the powder arrival price is 3150 yuan/ton, 51% of the actual regional transaction price is about 2750 yuan/ton, 52% of the powder is about 2800 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium sulphate analyst of business association thinks: After National Day, the market of potassium fertilizer is not good, and the price of potassium sulphate is stable. Generally speaking, the potassium sulfate market lacks favorable support, unless the industry start-up rate can be significantly reduced, the market is unlikely to improve in the short term.