Trade name: SBR 1502

Latest price (June 9): 12158 yuan / ton

Analysis points: according to the monitoring of business society, the domestic SBR price was 12158 yuan / ton on the 9th, down 0.14% from the previous day.

Since early May, natural rubber has entered the falling channel again, and the price has fallen below 13000 yuan / ton, which has made the whole rubber market atmosphere empty. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of June 9, the price of natural rubber was 12850 yuan / ton.

Since June, the factory price of petrochemical manufacturers has been greatly reduced by 800 yuan / ton, and the low price of the offer is adjusted. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of the ghihua butanobenzene of CNPC Northeast sales branch was 11900 yuan / T as of June 9, and the price of Northeast warehouse was raised.

Although butadiene raw materials rose, styrene prices fell, and cost side support was weaker than that in the early stage. According to the monitoring of business society, as of June 9, styrene price was 9300 yuan / ton, down 3.79% from the beginning of the month; As of June 9, the price of butadiene was 8163 yuan / ton, up 9.44% from the beginning of June.

The forecast of future market: the effect of gum on the sky is strong; In addition, the plans for the restart of SBR units such as Yangtze and Fushun, and the increase of supply surface pressure, it is expected that the SBR will continue to be weak in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of June 8, the reference average price of silicone DMC market in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 27100 yuan / ton. Compared with June 1 (26666 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 433 yuan / ton, or 1.62%. Compared with may 24 (26433 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 677 yuan / ton, or 2.52%.

At the end of May, the domestic silicone DMC began to warm up slightly after the trough.

Strong supply and demand support, silicone DMC rose steadily in June

In June, with the support of many favorable factors, the domestic market price of silicone DMC continued to rise steadily. In terms of raw materials, the high-level operation of metallic silicon provides effective cost support for silicone DMC. On the demand side, the downstream demand gradually stabilized, the number of orders increased, and the orders of silicone DMC monomer factories in some regions were arranged until the middle of June. The overall trading atmosphere of the market is good. On June 4, the ex factory price of silicone DMC of Shandong’s leading factories was increased to 26800 yuan / ton, with an increase of 800 yuan / ton compared with the end of May. Other silicone DMC factories also slightly increased the ex factory price of silicone DMC, with an increase of 200-300 yuan / ton. After the rise, the market conducted smoothly, and the overall operation was stable and relatively strong. On the 8th, the market price of silicone DMC rose slightly again by 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 8th, the reference price of domestic silicone DMC was 26800-27300 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the reference average price of silicone DMC was 27100 yuan / ton, up 433 yuan / ton, or 1.62% compared with June 1, Compared with the previous low in May (the reference price of silicone DMC on May 24 was 24633 yuan / ton), the price increased by 2.52%.

On the upstream side, in May 2021, the price of upstream silicon metal (441 #) was strong. According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic metallic silicon (441) on May 31 was 13991.67 yuan / ton, up 7.49% compared with the average market price of 13641.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of may (5.1). The increase was mainly in the first ten days of May, and the price of silicon metal (441) remained stable in the second half of the month. In June, silicon metal continued to run at a high level. As of the 8th, the market price of silicon in Fujian remained stable. The current price range is 13300-13400 yuan / ton, and the average market price is 13300 yuan / ton; The current price range is 13800-13900 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13850 yuan / ton; The price of silicon metal in Shanghai is stable. The current price range is 14600-14800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14700 yuan / ton; The current price range is 14100-14200 yuan / ton, and the average market price is 14150 yuan / ton; The market price of ᦇ 441 silicon in Tianjin port area rose slightly. At present, the price transaction range is 14200-14300 yuan / ton, and the average market price is 14250 yuan / ton.

On the downstream side, with the support of raw material silicone DMC, the market prices of downstream 107 glue and silica gel are stable, medium and strong, the market prices are increased sporadically, and the atmosphere of mutual support between upstream and downstream is strong. It is expected that the overall 107 glue market will be stable, medium and upward in the short term.

Future trend forecast

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the domestic silicone DMC market has improved, and the previous downturn has basically disappeared, with strong supply and demand support from upstream and downstream. Therefore, the silicone DMC analysts of the business community believe that there is still room for the domestic silicone DMC market price to continue to rise in the short term.

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate price trend has risen significantly this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate is 3480 yuan / ton, up 6.75% compared with the price of 3260 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 49.36% year on year. The commodity index of ammonium nitrate on June 3 was 179.47, up 3.68 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 131.96% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016（ Note: the cycle refers to February 1, 2013 to present).

This week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate has reached a historical high. The plant starts in domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are generally started. The supply in the ammonium nitrate plant is normal. Some manufacturers reflect that the price of raw materials of coal in the upstream is at a high level, the cost has increased greatly, the price of the manufacturer has reached a historical high. In the near future, the supply of goods in the field is tight, the transportation is normal, and the market price of ammonium nitrate continues to rise. In recent years, the shipment of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, downstream on demand procurement, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started normal, some manufacturers’ price trend has increased greatly. Up to now, the mainstream of Shaanxi negotiation is 3500-3600 yuan / ton, Shandong negotiation mainstream is 2700-2900 yuan / ton, Hebei local price is 4300-4400 yuan / ton.

The domestic price of concentrated nitric acid is stable for a while this week, with the weekend price of 2233.33 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of the beginning of the week, and the price of Hongze Yinzhu chemical industry in Jiangsu Province is 2200 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2100 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 2400 yuan / ton. Shaanxi Xinghua quoted 2100 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic maintenance equipment is in normal operation, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, the goods are generally transported in the field, the price trend in the nitric acid field is stable, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is rising.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week, with the weekend price of 4350 yuan / ton, up 4.23% from the price of 4173.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The plant in the liquid ammonia plant is under normal operation, the spot supply is normal, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market is rising. On the basic level, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province has risen. Due to the decline of inventory pressure, the factory commencement rate remains reasonable, and there is a certain price difference with other regions in China, and the price of liquid ammonia is small. The ammonia quantity in Shandong is basically in the state of supply and demand, which still supports the price. In the downstream, the current agricultural fertilizer has increased, the demand of downstream is general, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is rising.

In recent years, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and marketing of nitro compound fertilizer is normal, the price trend of raw material market continues to rise, and the price of coal market remains high. However, the spot supply in ammonium nitrate is generally available, and the cost increase has a positive effect. The business agency ammonium nitrate analysts believe that there will be room for the rise of the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period.

The price of corn ethanol rose, while the price of Henan fell slightly. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of June 4, the domestic ethanol market price was 6812 yuan / ton, with a month on month rise of 2.64%, and a year-on-year rise of 17.97%.

Compared with last week, Jilin’s high-end price increased by 100 yuan / ton this week, while the price of large plant equipment maintenance continued to remain stable, while the price of small plant increased by 100 yuan / ton; In Heilongjiang area, there are many small plants shut down, large plants have high output of fuel ethanol and stable output of edible ethanol. The low-end price of Henan area is weak, Hanyong device continues to shut down, and the general shipping price of other enterprises is weak, but the cost is high, and the decline rate is small.

In terms of raw materials, Jilin corn and Henan corn were flat compared with last week, while the price of dried cassava in Thailand went up, with fob245-245 US dollars / ton in Thailand; The price of molasses is firm, and the recent auction price of molasses is about 1560 yuan / ton. Downstream, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose slightly this week. The raw material acetic acid rose in the early stage. Under the pressure of ethyl acetate manufacturer’s cost, the manufacturer’s inventory was digested smoothly, and the offer was slightly increased with the raw material.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Henan Province Top grade 6830-6850 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan Province Anhydrous ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton including tax

Hebei Province General level 6900-6950 yuan / ton

Hebei Province No water in coal 7600-7700 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang area General grade of corn alcohol 6350 yuan / ton including tax

Jilin area Ordinary alcohol 6450 yuan / ton including tax

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7150-7300 yuan / ton

Guangxi region 95% alcohol 7150-7300 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Anhydrous ethanol 7650-7900 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Cassava alcohol About 7200 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Anhydrous cassava ethanol About 7750-7850 yuan / ton

Shandong Province General level 6650-6700 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Superior grade of corn 6800-7400 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn without water 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 6750-6850 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Province Cassava general grade About 6650-6750 yuan / ton

Anhui Province anhydrous About 7450-7500 yuan / ton

The price of raw material corn is strong, and some small plants in Northeast China are likely to be overhauled, while the downstream demand is insufficient. It is expected that the corn ethanol finishing operation in Northeast China will be dominated in the short term. Business community ethanol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market will be dominated by consolidation.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of domestic polysilicon market continued to rise this week. As of June 3, the weekly price of polysilicon grade I is expected to rise by 9.22%. At present, the price range is 108000-120000 yuan / ton.

This week, most polysilicon manufacturers operated stably. In addition to the maintenance of some polysilicon equipment of the previous two large factories in Xinjiang, a new polysilicon device was added to the maintenance state this week, which affected part of the output and led to the situation of market supply shortage. In the case of material shortage sentiment continues to heat up, the price rises naturally, and the prices of single crystal and polycrystal all rise by a strong margin. Although the price of long-term orders is locked, the price of loose orders is higher than one wave, and the price is generally high, which further pushes up the expectation of silicon rising. The price of domestic polysilicon is generally at the 110000 mark, while the price of imported polysilicon continues to rise this week. The average transaction price is over US $28 / kg, with scattered offers reaching US $31 / kg.

In terms of the downstream silicon chip, the price of silicon chip manufacturers increased again in early June, following the repeated increases in silicon chip prices last month. The mainstream price of polysilicon is 2.37-2.63 yuan / piece, g1170 μ M the mainstream price is 4.79-5.03 yuan / piece, M6 170 μ The mainstream price of M is 4.89-5.13 yuan / piece. The rising price of downstream silicon wafer resonates with the shortage of upstream silicon material, and the price continues to rise. The silicon wafer manufacturers are affected by the dry season in Yunnan, and the power rationing affects the output of the device, and the silicon material and silicon wafer are in a state of short supply.

In terms of terminal batteries and modules, due to the cost pressure, batteries also rose this week, but by a small margin. Due to the high price of upstream silicon materials and silicon wafers in the photovoltaic industry, the downstream battery manufacturers fell into the dilemma of shrinking profits and even losing money, and the downstream battery prices were forced to rise, but the price rise was affected by the decline in demand. From the downstream orders, the downstream procurement continued to slow down, Orders fell further in June.

According to the business association, there are too many silicon material manufacturers’ devices to be overhauled. In June, about three devices were overhauled or started with load reduction. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market intensified. Due to the shortage of silicon materials, the price of downstream silicon wafers may continue to rise, and the pressure on the cost side will be further transmitted to the downstream batteries and modules. However, at present, the downstream orders continue to shrink, and some overseas orders have been cancelled or delayed, so the pressure on the demand side may become greater and greater, which may suppress the upward pace of silicon materials to a certain extent, and the rise of silicon materials may slow down in the later stage.