Lack of market confidence, isopropanol prices continued to decline this week (12.03-12.10)

1、 Price trend

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices continued to decline this week. The average price of domestic isopropanol was 7266.67 yuan / ton last Friday and 6866.67 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 5.5% during the week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Figure: comparison of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from August to October

 

This week, the focus of the domestic isopropanol market continued to move downward, the price of raw acetone was weak, and the cost suppressed the market mentality. Traders are more cautious in taking goods. Most of the downstream are wait-and-see. The overall trading atmosphere of the market is light, and the isopropanol market quotation fell. Up to now, most quotations of Shandong isopropanol are about 6800 yuan / ton; Most quotation ranges of isopropanol in Jiangsu are about 6800-7000 yuan / ton; Most quotations of isopropanol in Zhejiang are about 6800 yuan / ton. Internationally, on December 7, isopropanol in the United States closed higher and isopropanol in Europe closed stable.

 

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In terms of raw acetone, the downstream demand is not followed up enough, and the participation of intermediate traders is very little, while the terminal factory is completely in the state of just needing follow-up, the trading surface is cold, and there is little heard of actual orders. The average price of acetone in China this week was 5412.5 yuan / ton

 

In terms of raw propylene, the price of propylene (Shandong) increased slightly at the beginning of the week, but the increase was weak, and the price began to fall again. As of Friday, the propylene price in Shandong market was 7500-7550 yuan / ton. This week, it was repaired after the sharp drop in upstream oil prices, providing support for the rise of propylene. However, the main downstream polypropylene market continued to fluctuate and weaken. When the supply of propylene market was sufficient and the downstream demand support was insufficient, the contradiction between supply and demand still existed, resulting in the downward main tone of the market as a whole.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that the focus of the domestic isopropanol market is downward. The raw material acetone is in weak operation, the rise of propylene is weak, and the support of isopropanol is insufficient. The downstream is mostly wait-and-see, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is poor. Isopropanol is expected to continue to operate downward in the short term.

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On December 9, the styrene butadiene rubber market continued to be weak

Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

 

Latest price (December 9): 12658 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber was 12658 yuan / ton on December 9, down 0.39% from the previous day. On September 9, the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber was stable. According to the understanding of business society, Jihua 1502 of PetroChina Northeast sales company reported 12600 yuan / ton; Fushun 1502 reported 12600 yuan / ton, and the Northeast warehouse raised the price. The supply and demand side was weak, and the prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene were at a phased low, so the market offer fell again.

 

Future forecast: it is expected that the SBR market will continue to be weak in the short term.

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Analysis of Styrene Market on December 8

Today’s styrene market is strong and volatile. The production price of styrene in Shandong was 8187.50 yuan / ton, up 0.31% from 8162.50 yuan / ton yesterday

Styrene Market Consolidation and price rise. Crude oil prices rebounded, pure benzene prices rose, and styrene was supported on the cost side. In addition, the epidemic situation, environmental protection and other restrictions restrict the delivery of some goods in East China. The climate has led to the extension of the transportation cycle in the north, the reduction of tradable spot goods, the price increase and reluctant sale of goods holders, and the production enterprises are expected to make up the rise. Today, the domestic production enterprises continue to make up the rise, and it is expected that the styrene market will still be strong and volatile in the short term.

Today, the price of styrene in Shandong is around 8200-8300 yuan / ton.

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On December 7, the phosphoric acid market was relatively strong

1、 Price trend

Latest price (December 7): 10500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business agency, on December 7, the phosphoric acid market operated strongly. Due to the rise in the price of raw yellow phosphorus, the cost support gradually increased. Some phosphoric acid enterprises have slightly increased their quotation, and the transaction focus has shifted upward. At present, the price is mostly in the range of 9000-12000 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mood of the operators is not reduced, and the bullish mood is strong.

It is expected that the phosphoric acid market may rise slightly with the cost in the short term.

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On December 6, the domestic urea price fell by 1.92%

Trade name: urea

Latest price (December 6): 2450.00 yuan / ton

On December 6, the ex factory quotation of domestic urea decreased slightly, which was 48.00 yuan / ton lower than that on December 3, a decrease of 1.92%, and a year-on-year increase of 35.61%. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have fallen slightly recently, and the cost support has weakened. In terms of demand, agricultural demand increased slightly, while industrial demand was mainly on the sidelines. The promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer was slow, and large urea purchase orders began to appear in the downstream compound fertilizer plants. The inventory of melamine enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. In terms of supply, the inventory of urea manufacturers is high, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. At the end of the month, the gas head unit will be shut down one after another, and the urea output will decline. On the whole, the urea cost support is general, the downstream demand is mainly just demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the urea supply is reduced.

In the future, the ex factory price of domestic urea is expected to decline slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2400 yuan / ton.

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