Spot aluminum prices rose 3.67% during the week

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on November 26 was 19233.33 yuan / ton, up 3.67% from the average market price of 18553.33 yuan / ton on November 19.

At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the high and volatile operation range in the early stage. At the peak of this year (October 19, 2021), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 124240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 20.65% recently. Based on the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021), the cumulative increase rate was reduced to 22.30%.

Production data in October

According to the data of the International Aluminum Association, the global primary aluminum output in October 2021 was 5689kt, compared with 5617000t in the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 1.28%. From January to October, the global primary aluminum output reached 56295000 tons, up from 54121 tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 4.02%.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of electrolytic aluminum in October 2021 was 3.132 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 32.368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%.

In October, the aluminum output was 4.84 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 49.669 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%.

In October, the output of aluminum alloy was 911000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 9.245 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%.

In October, China’s alumina output was 6.291 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 65.153 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%.

List of import and export data in October

According to the new data of the General Administration of customs, in October 2021, China exported 479600 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%; From January to October, the cumulative export was 4.547 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%.

In October, China imported 297000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, with a year-on-year increase of 15.8%; From January to October, the total import was 2572300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%.

In October, China imported 9.54 million tons of aluminum ore and its concentrate, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%; From January to October, the cumulative import of aluminum ore and its concentrate was 91.06 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%.

Positive factors this week

In China, the real estate policy is relaxed, and the news is good for market expectations; On the international news front, the rising US inflation combined with the Indonesian President’s reiteration of the ban on bauxite export in 2022 boosted market sentiment.

At present, in the domestic spot market, the overall trading is weak. Although the cargo holders are active in shipping, the downstream procurement is cautious and mainly bargain hunting and on-demand procurement. Recent inventory is at a high level year-on-year, with a slight decline in ring ratio.

Future forecast

In the early stage, the aluminum price fell rapidly, and recently the price began to bottom and stabilize. However, at present, the actual demand is still relatively general, and the social inventory is still high. It is expected to stabilize in the short term, but the rising space is narrowed, and the operation range is 18800-19500 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (November 25): 9330 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, the opening price of PVC main contract 2201 rose on November 25, with the closing price of 9069 yuan / ton. The futures price rose, which continued to boost the rising atmosphere in the spot market. The price rose by 0.11% compared with the previous day. The increase range of enterprises was about 50-150 yuan / ton. The increase range of offer of cargo holders was small and cautious. Downstream procurement continued to maintain rigid demand, Bargain hunting, trading atmosphere is OK.

Forecast: the PVC market is expected to run in a strong shock in the short term.

Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price November 24: 38000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on November 24, the domestic yellow phosphorus market price was temporarily stable. The overall market trading was ok, the downstream inquiry increased, and the procurement was more active. With the increase of electricity price in various regions, the supply of phosphate rock is tight and the cost of enterprises increases. Yellow phosphorus enterprises have a strong willingness to increase prices. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will mainly rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (November 23): 10133.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on November 23, the phosphoric acid market continued to maintain a stable state, and the wait-and-see mood did not decrease. Recently, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus was stable and there were signs of upward adjustment. Phosphoric acid enterprises made multiple stable adjustments, and the market as a whole was relatively stable. The offers of cargo holders were mostly in the range of 9000-11500 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation.

It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to operate smoothly.

Product Name: propylene glycol

Latest price (November 22): 18600 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on November 22, the domestic propylene glycol market was moving upward. The average ex factory price of propylene glycol was 18600 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was increased by 300 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.64%. On the 22nd, propylene glycol was supported by export, the transaction atmosphere was good, the factory quotation was firm and increased, the downstream demand just needed to be followed up, and the overall trading atmosphere improved.

Future forecast: at present, the raw material propylene oxide has stabilized and the cost support of propylene glycol has increased. The propylene glycol datagrapher of business society believes that the propylene glycol market will mainly operate in a stable and strong manner in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of downstream demand.