1、 Price data
According to the data of business agency, as of December 31, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5240.00 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 3.56% compared with 5060.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.
On December 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 106.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.65% from the highest point of 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 130.32% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
The rise of domestic fuel oil 180CST price this month is mainly due to the sharp rise of international crude oil shock, and the upward price of domestic marine oil raw materials supports the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of December 31, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 5350 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 5450 yuan / ton; The quotation of low sulfur for 180 CST fuel oil in Shanghai is 5350 yuan / ton, and the quotation of low sulfur for 120 CST fuel oil is 5450 yuan / ton.
In December, the international crude oil price fluctuated sharply, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seemed milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market. In a report on Monday, JPMorgan said that Omicron would not have any significant impact on the growth prospects. US stocks were boosted and rose, which was also good for oil prices. In addition, a preliminary survey released on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the fifth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to remain generally stable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullah Hyan said through the media on the 27th that the parties concerned with the comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue began the eighth round of us Iran resumption of performance negotiations in the Austrian capital Vienna on the same day, and will focus on a “new common draft”, which focuses on the “unrestricted” sale of Iranian petroleum oil, and the sale funds will be deposited into Iran’s bank account in foreign currency. However, at present, it is still difficult to promote the negotiations.
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Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of December 29, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 1371000 barrels to a two-and-a-half month low of 19564000 barrels. Singapore’s light distillate stocks fell 517000 barrels to a five week low of 11.505 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 26000 barrels to a three week low of 7.896 million barrels.
According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in December 2021, there were 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were petroleum coke (20.70%), WTI crude oil (16.33%) and Brent crude oil (14.88%). A total of 9 commodities decreased month on month, and 6 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%), thermal coal (- 24.19%) and methanol (- 14.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 3.2%.
3、 Future forecast
The rising international crude oil price and the high cost price in the ship fuel market support the ship fuel market, but the terminal demand is general, the wait-and-see mood is strong, the transaction is light, and the purchase is just needed. The market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 5200-5350 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 5300-5450 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will remain stable in the near future.
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