According to the data monitored by the business society, the domestic carbon black quotation was 9175 yuan / ton on December 31. The carbon black market operated weakly and stably this month, and the market inquiry for new orders was quiet, mostly small tonnage retail investors.
In terms of raw materials, since December, the profits of the deep processing industry have been generally low, the operating rate of the deep processing industry has decreased significantly, and the overall demand for coal tar has declined. Tight supply is also difficult to support tar prices. Throughout December, tar prices were mainly stable and downward. In the future, coke enterprises are still at a loss, the expectation of production restriction near the Winter Olympic Games is enhanced, and the operating rate is difficult to be greatly improved. Therefore, the supply of by-products is still expected to be tight in the future. In addition, the request for goods preparation before the short-term Festival is OK, and the future price of coal tar may still have little room to rise, which supports the price of carbon black, and the cost of carbon black company is under pressure.
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In terms of construction, the carbon black enterprises in Shanxi were greatly affected by the staggered peak production in the heating season, and the overall construction fell sharply; At the end of the year, the Spring Festival and the Winter Olympics are approaching, the environmental protection control of the main carbon black producing areas in northern Hebei, Shanxi and Shandong is becoming stricter, coupled with the possible heavy pollution weather, the overall operating load of carbon black is expected to decline, and the carbon black supply in the market may be reduced in the future.
From the downstream, affected by the price of raw materials, the cost of downstream tire manufacturers increased this month, and the tire industry ushered in a price rise. At present, more than 200 tire manufacturers have raised the price by 10%. The downstream demand plays a good supporting role for carbon black. In November, the overall start-up of tire enterprises was relatively good, but in the latter ten days, the price of tire enterprises was pushed up again and blocked, and it is unknown whether they can finally land in the later period.
In terms of import and export, the statistics released by the General Administration of Customs of China show that China’s carbon black export volume in November was 45636.555 tons, a month on month decrease of 2196.407 tons, a decrease of 5.06%, a year-on-year decrease of 19000.791 tons, a decrease of 29.40%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume was 660588.271 tons, an increase of 8.78%. Due to the impact of the epidemic this year, sales in Southeast Asia and East Asia have decreased, mainly to Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.
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In terms of carbon black enterprises, recently, domestic listed carbon black enterprises have successively released performance reports for the third quarter of this year. Due to the high fluctuation of carbon black price and the stable growth of sales volume, the net profit of carbon black enterprises rose sharply in the first three quarters of 2021, of which the net profit of black cat carbon black increased by more than 100 times year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2021. However, since the third quarter of this year, with the rise in the price of coal tar and other raw materials, and under the influence of environmental protection, double control and power restriction, the operating rate of equipment has been limited, and the profits of enterprises have begun to decline.
Macro Watch: affected by the national policy regulation, the price of domestic bulk products has dropped significantly, of which the power coal price has decreased by about 650 yuan or 37% compared with the highest price in October; Compared with the highest price in October, coking coal fell by about 700 yuan, or 33%. Affected by this, the prices of some coal chemical products fell, and carbon black and coal tar may also be dragged down in the future.
The carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society believes that the future price of the carbon black market may operate weakly and stably, the downstream requirements may continue to weaken, the negative factors in the carbon black market are relatively strong, or the shipment is mainly negotiated.
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