On the 28th, the mainstream quotation range of tin ingots in domestic spot tin market was 207500-209000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 208250 yuan / ton, up 8750 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

On Thursday night, the macro positive was released, which promoted the overall upward trend of non-ferrous metal market. Affected by the current domestic power rationing policy in Yunnan, most local smelters shut down, and the current domestic market circulation is limited. Overseas, affected by the earthquake, a major mine in Congo is expected to reduce production. Supply shortages at home and abroad supported the trend of Shanghai tin last night. Shanghai tin rose about 5% late on Thursday, setting a new record of 209990 yuan / ton. Today, the opening of Shanghai tin continued the trend of last night. As of the closing of 28, the settlement price of the main contract of Shanghai tin 2107 was 205410 yuan / ton, up 4.81%.

In the future, the business community believes that the current tight supply situation at home and abroad will continue for a period of time, and it is expected that the tin price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

28 magnesium ingot Market Price weak stability

On May 28, 2021, the price range of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas in China is 17700-18300 yuan / ton, mainly through actual negotiation.

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 17900-18100 yuan / ton; The spot exchange in Taiyuan is 18100-18200 yuan / ton; Spot exchange in Wenxi area is 18200-18300 yuan / ton; The spot exchange in Ningxia is 18000-18100 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is primary magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); Non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment of acceptance price, solid single negotiation.

Magnesium price is weak and volatile this week

According to the data of the business agency, the market quotation of the main production areas rose to 17400-17600 yuan / ton at the end of April. When they came back after the festival, the market quotation was high and the source of low price goods was hard to find. As a result, the price of tons soared by 4000-5000 yuan / ton.

It is reported that on the 8th, it was difficult for downstream end users to find low-cost sources of goods, and it was not easy to make pre Festival quotation inquiries. In the middle of May, the market quotation reached a historical market high of 22000 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of this week, the market quotation fell back to 17500 yuan / ton, and the volume of market inquiry increased. Due to the chaotic situation of market price after the sharp fall, the market trading was relatively active with the opening of market entry window. The market price of magnesium rose slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a small range. The mainstream quotation was in the range of 17900-18000 yuan / ton, with few transactions, and the price was slightly loose on Friday.

Multi space steady state or gradual formation

On the supply side, the mainstream manufacturers do not have much stock, and the overall spot stock is not large. Towards the end of the month, some manufacturers are willing to withdraw funds, and the price is slightly loose. The overall quotation is relatively firm due to the influence of cost factors.

On the demand side and downstream, affected by the current high price, the willingness to store goods is very low. Most of them purchase on demand, just need to prepare goods, and they don’t undertake much at high prices, so the purchase volume is small.

After this week’s long short seesaw, it is expected to gradually form a stable price. Recent consolidation weak stable operation

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of May 27, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 17033.33 yuan / ton, down 6.07% compared with the price at the beginning of the week, down 9.88% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and down 9.72% compared with April 27.

This week, the market of propylene oxide went down steadily. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of the representative factory gradually increased. However, the lower starting load and insufficient demand follow-up of the downstream dragged the market down. The terminal enterprises were in a strong wait-and-see mood. The market was weak and the transaction was weak. The price was adjusted down again on the 27th. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 16400-16600 yuan / ton, The mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China is around 16600-16800 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, as of May 26, Shandong propylene market prices continue to be stable. According to the price chart of the business association, the propylene price in Shandong continued to rise in the first ten days of April, fell sharply in the last ten days, and remained stable at the end of the month. During the May Day period, the first two days continued to be stable. From the 3rd to the 7th, the daily price rose by about 50 yuan / ton. From the 9th, the price was mainly stable. After a small rise on the 13th, the price was stabilized again. From the 17th, the daily price began to decline by 50 yuan / ton. From the 19th to the 20th, the daily price of propylene rose by about 50 yuan / ton. From the 23rd, the price of propylene continued to stabilize, The current market turnover is between 8100 ~ 8300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8100 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of propylene glycol was 16900.00 on May 26, down 6.63% compared with 18100.00 on May 1; As of May 26, the focus of discussion in the market of soft foam polyether in Shandong Province was lower, the raw material propylene oxide was weak, and the downstream was mainly cautious. The market inquiry and transaction performance were weak. On May 26, the mainstream quotation of common soft foam polyether in Shandong Province was around 17000-17350 yuan / ton.

Business community propylene oxide analysts believe that at present, the market of propylene oxide is falling, the attitude of the industry is cautious, and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers is general. Restricted by the weak market supply and demand fundamentals, it is expected that the propylene oxide market will be weak in the short term, and the specific trend still needs to pay attention to the market information guidance.

Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, the ABS market is generally weak in the near future, and most brands of products have been reduced. As of May 26, the average price of general ABS mainstream offer was about 18300 yuan / ton, which was 0.41% lower than that in early April and 52.50% higher than that in the same period of last year.

Factor analysis:

In terms of raw material styrene, the styrene market has been significantly weakened recently. Upstream crude oil, pure benzene and ethylene fell. Night market styrene soft down, although domestic styrene supply has increased, but the spot terminal inventory low, spot supply tension to maintain. On the downstream side, the prices of the three major downstream companies are temporarily stable, the terminal factories just need to purchase, and the market is short of gas. In the near future, styrene cost support is weakened, and it is expected that the market will continue to be weak in the short term.

As for upstream butadiene, the domestic butadiene market has been mainly consolidated recently. Business intention to stabilize the price offer, the downstream inquiry weak, there are some low price transaction in the market, dragging the market. High price source transaction is not smooth, short-term domestic butadiene market has no obvious direction, business community butadiene analysts expect the market will continue to consolidate.

ABS cost side market fluctuates, the overall support for ABS cost side weakened. In addition, the market is dominated by the bad external market, which has a drag on the domestic spot price. The positive effect of centralized maintenance of pre production units on the supply side is gradually exhausted, and ABS, which has officially entered the off-season of consumption, is difficult to boost the demand. Downstream enterprises just need to reduce, at the same time, due to the recent downward channel, buy up do not buy down mentality, weaken trading momentum.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: ABS spot market fell recently, the current price position has fallen below the price of aquatic products at the beginning of the month. The trend of raw materials has its own ups and downs, among which styrene has a larger decline, and the overall cost side of ABS is bad. The current round of ABS decline is due to both the factors of falling styrene and the increasing resistance of off-season shipment in the industry. Superimposed on the external market is also bad led, it is expected that the recent ABS spot market may continue to be short.

This week, the spot tin market price (5.17-5.21) rose and then fell. The average price of domestic market was 198100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 195350 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly decline of 1.39%.

On May 23, the tin commodity index was 99.51, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.17% from 101.72 (2021-05-18), the highest point in the cycle, and up 132.17% from 42.86, the lowest point on December 09, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In terms of futures, tight overseas supply this week strongly supported LME Lunxi’s price. Lunxi’s inventory continued to be low, and the market supply was tight, which supported the external metal price. Driven by the external market, Shanghai Tin’s price fluctuated at a high level this week..

In the spot market, the number of miners in Myanmar is higher, the mining speed is slower, and the import volume is lower. This week, due to the increase of export sources, domestic tin ingot inventory is low, supporting domestic prices. In terms of smelters, some manufacturers will stop production this weekend, which will continue to affect domestic production. In the case of tight supply in the future, tin ingot prices will be supported again.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 20th week of 2021 (5.17-5.21), there were five kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month, and the top three commodities were lead (3.20%), silicon metal (1.82%) and titanium concentrate (1.03%). There were 16 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three products were magnesium (- 6.85%), aluminum (- 6.33%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 6.30%). The average rise and fall this week was – 1.95%. Most commodities fell this week.

In the future, the business news agency believes that although the data shows that tin concentrate imports have improved to a certain extent in March, the closing of Ruili port at the end of March is bound to affect the import situation in the near future, and the tight supply at the ore end will continue. The current supply and demand of tin market is weak, and it is expected that it will continue to fluctuate in the future.

In the future, the business community believes that the low foreign inventory situation is difficult to be alleviated in a short time, the domestic tin ingot export volume is increasing, and the domestic production is limited in the near future. It is expected that the basic support of tin ingot Market in the future will be strong, and the behavior will be dominant in the shock. However, the five departments have recently interviewed domestic non-ferrous and steel and iron enterprises to maintain the price order of the bulk commodity market, so the upward space will not be too large.