Trade name: epichlorohydrin

Latest price (January 5): 16100.00 yuan / ton

On January 5, the market price of epichlorohydrin increased by 0.62% compared with the previous trading day and decreased by 0.21% compared with the price on December 1. At present, the price of raw material propylene is rising, glycerol is mainly stable, there is a certain support on the cost side, the spot supply in the market is tight, in addition, some transportation is limited, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry is improved, the owner’s intention to ship at a low price is weakened, the market push atmosphere is strong, and the focus of negotiation is higher.

It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may be dominated by strong operation.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (January 4): 4600.00 yuan / ton

On January 4, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China decreased by 16.67 yuan / ton, or 0.36%, compared with December 31, and increased by 28.13% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of raw material orchid charcoal is adjusted at a low level. At present, shenmulan charcoal is about 1600-1700 yuan / ton, and the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened. Meanwhile, the downstream PVC market has continued to decline recently, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has weakened. On the whole, the upstream support of calcium carbide was insufficient, the downstream demand was general, and the price of calcium carbide fell slightly.

In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 4550 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the domestic carbon black quotation was 9175 yuan / ton on December 31. The carbon black market operated weakly and stably this month, and the market inquiry for new orders was quiet, mostly small tonnage retail investors.

In terms of raw materials, since December, the profits of the deep processing industry have been generally low, the operating rate of the deep processing industry has decreased significantly, and the overall demand for coal tar has declined. Tight supply is also difficult to support tar prices. Throughout December, tar prices were mainly stable and downward. In the future, coke enterprises are still at a loss, the expectation of production restriction near the Winter Olympic Games is enhanced, and the operating rate is difficult to be greatly improved. Therefore, the supply of by-products is still expected to be tight in the future. In addition, the request for goods preparation before the short-term Festival is OK, and the future price of coal tar may still have little room to rise, which supports the price of carbon black, and the cost of carbon black company is under pressure.

In terms of construction, the carbon black enterprises in Shanxi were greatly affected by the staggered peak production in the heating season, and the overall construction fell sharply; At the end of the year, the Spring Festival and the Winter Olympics are approaching, the environmental protection control of the main carbon black producing areas in northern Hebei, Shanxi and Shandong is becoming stricter, coupled with the possible heavy pollution weather, the overall operating load of carbon black is expected to decline, and the carbon black supply in the market may be reduced in the future.

From the downstream, affected by the price of raw materials, the cost of downstream tire manufacturers increased this month, and the tire industry ushered in a price rise. At present, more than 200 tire manufacturers have raised the price by 10%. The downstream demand plays a good supporting role for carbon black. In November, the overall start-up of tire enterprises was relatively good, but in the latter ten days, the price of tire enterprises was pushed up again and blocked, and it is unknown whether they can finally land in the later period.

In terms of import and export, the statistics released by the General Administration of Customs of China show that China’s carbon black export volume in November was 45636.555 tons, a month on month decrease of 2196.407 tons, a decrease of 5.06%, a year-on-year decrease of 19000.791 tons, a decrease of 29.40%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume was 660588.271 tons, an increase of 8.78%. Due to the impact of the epidemic this year, sales in Southeast Asia and East Asia have decreased, mainly to Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.

In terms of carbon black enterprises, recently, domestic listed carbon black enterprises have successively released performance reports for the third quarter of this year. Due to the high fluctuation of carbon black price and the stable growth of sales volume, the net profit of carbon black enterprises rose sharply in the first three quarters of 2021, of which the net profit of black cat carbon black increased by more than 100 times year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2021. However, since the third quarter of this year, with the rise in the price of coal tar and other raw materials, and under the influence of environmental protection, double control and power restriction, the operating rate of equipment has been limited, and the profits of enterprises have begun to decline.

Macro Watch: affected by the national policy regulation, the price of domestic bulk products has dropped significantly, of which the power coal price has decreased by about 650 yuan or 37% compared with the highest price in October; Compared with the highest price in October, coking coal fell by about 700 yuan, or 33%. Affected by this, the prices of some coal chemical products fell, and carbon black and coal tar may also be dragged down in the future.

The carbon black data division of the chemical branch of the business society believes that the future price of the carbon black market may operate weakly and stably, the downstream requirements may continue to weaken, the negative factors in the carbon black market are relatively strong, or the shipment is mainly negotiated.

1、 Price data

According to the data of business agency, as of December 31, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5240.00 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 3.56% compared with 5060.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On December 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 106.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.65% from the highest point of 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 130.32% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The rise of domestic fuel oil 180CST price this month is mainly due to the sharp rise of international crude oil shock, and the upward price of domestic marine oil raw materials supports the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of December 31, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 5350 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 5450 yuan / ton; The quotation of low sulfur for 180 CST fuel oil in Shanghai is 5350 yuan / ton, and the quotation of low sulfur for 120 CST fuel oil is 5450 yuan / ton.

In December, the international crude oil price fluctuated sharply, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seemed milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market. In a report on Monday, JPMorgan said that Omicron would not have any significant impact on the growth prospects. US stocks were boosted and rose, which was also good for oil prices. In addition, a preliminary survey released on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the fifth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to remain generally stable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullah Hyan said through the media on the 27th that the parties concerned with the comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue began the eighth round of us Iran resumption of performance negotiations in the Austrian capital Vienna on the same day, and will focus on a “new common draft”, which focuses on the “unrestricted” sale of Iranian petroleum oil, and the sale funds will be deposited into Iran’s bank account in foreign currency. However, at present, it is still difficult to promote the negotiations.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of December 29, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 1371000 barrels to a two-and-a-half month low of 19564000 barrels. Singapore’s light distillate stocks fell 517000 barrels to a five week low of 11.505 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 26000 barrels to a three week low of 7.896 million barrels.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in December 2021, there were 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were petroleum coke (20.70%), WTI crude oil (16.33%) and Brent crude oil (14.88%). A total of 9 commodities decreased month on month, and 6 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%), thermal coal (- 24.19%) and methanol (- 14.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 3.2%.

3、 Future forecast

The rising international crude oil price and the high cost price in the ship fuel market support the ship fuel market, but the terminal demand is general, the wait-and-see mood is strong, the transaction is light, and the purchase is just needed. The market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 5200-5350 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 5300-5450 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will remain stable in the near future.

Styrene market continued to rise today. The production price of styrene in Shandong was 8310.00 yuan / ton, up 1.96% from yesterday

Styrene Market Consolidation and price rise. Crude oil prices picked up, pure benzene prices continued to strengthen and cost support improved. Night futures continued to open high and go low, and the upward position reduction led to today’s spot market. The port inventory has decreased, the domestic short-term spot is still tight, some goods are reluctant to sell at low prices, the delivery at the end of the month continues, the market spot is tight, and the market goods are reluctant to sell at low prices. Some northern sources began to arbitrage southward, and some domestic production enterprises increased their prices, but the domestic expectation of styrene increased one after another. In addition, the weak downstream demand restrained the market growth. In the short term, the styrene market is more likely to rise and fall.

Today, the price of styrene in Shandong is around 8200-8500 yuan / ton.