参考知识
770/1000
参考知识770/1000划译机翻 · 通用领域根据盛益学会商品分析系统，7月份国内TDI市场继续上涨。截至7月22日，华东地区TDI的平均价格为15333元/吨，比7月1日的11733元/顿上涨了30.68%。设备故障和集中维护引发了TDI供应危机设备故障，供应有限7月12日，科思创位于德国多马根的工厂发生电气火灾，导致烧碱、氯气和盐酸生产不可抗力。其他工厂的交货无法完全弥补损失，目前无法预测持续时间。这直接导致年产30万吨TDI设备申报不可抗力供货。这起事故直接导致国内TDI价格上涨。由于海外订单激增，上海科思创暂停报道，万华的报价继续上涨。7月18日，北方一家大型工厂宣布，直销渠道价格上调4500元至18500元/吨，每日涨幅超过30%。在海外设备更换的同时，国内TDI设备进行集中维护，进一步加剧了TDI供应危机。西北地区的两台设备已陆续进入维护阶段，其中一台从7月16日起停机35天，分散的供水已完全中断；另一组将提前10-15天进行检查，直到7月底。匈牙利万华35万吨/年TDI装置于7月19日开始日常维护，预计持续约30天。近期受影响设施的总产能为152万吨，约占全球产能的40%。出口市场超预期2025年5月，中国TDI出口量达到51600吨，创下月度新高，同比飙升98.45%。2025年6月，TDI出口4.8万吨，同比增长81.62%。在中国TDI产能的持续增长、欧美产能的收缩以及关税政策的刺激下，TDI出口市场订单激增。德国科思创第二轮不可抗力事件将影响产能30万吨，占欧洲总产能的55%，这将进一步刺激TDI出口的增长。未来预测截至目前，TDI的高价已超过16000元/吨。在经历了多次价格上涨后，一些中介机构进入了封闭交易和暂停报告的状态，而另一些中介机构则增加了发货意愿。终端用户只需要购买，但下高价订单并不令人满意。考虑到多台TDI设备的同步维护，以及其中一些设备未来仍有维护计划，预计供应将保持紧张。预计TDI市场短期内将继续上涨，我们将密切关注未来供需的变化，
划译
机翻 · 通用领域
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic TDI market continued to rise in July. As of July 22, the average price of TDI in East China was 15333 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.68% from 11733 yuan/ton on July 1.
Device malfunction and centralized maintenance triggered TDI supply crisis
Device malfunction, limited supply
On July 12th, Covestro’s factory in Domagen, Germany was affected by an electrical fire, causing force majeure in the production of caustic soda, chlorine gas, and hydrochloric acid. The loss could not be fully compensated by delivery from other factories, and the duration could not be predicted at this time. This directly led to the declaration of force majeure supply for TDI equipment with an annual output of 300000 tons. This accident directly led to an increase in domestic TDI prices. Due to a surge in overseas orders, Shanghai Covestro suspended reporting, and Wanhua’s quotation continued to rise. On July 18th, a major northern factory announced a price increase of 4500 yuan to 18500 yuan/ton for direct sales channels, with a daily increase of over 30%.
At the same time as the overseas equipment changes, the domestic TDI equipment undergoes centralized maintenance, further exacerbating the TDI supply crisis. Two sets of equipment in the northwest region have entered maintenance successively, with one set shut down for 35 days from July 16th, and the scattered water supply has been completely interrupted; The other set will be inspected 10-15 days in advance until the end of July. The 350000 ton/year TDI unit of Wanhua Hungary began routine maintenance on July 19th and is expected to last for about 30 days. The total production capacity of the affected facilities in recent times is 1.52 million tons, accounting for about 40% of the global production capacity.
Export market exceeds expectations
In May 2025, China’s TDI export volume reached 51600 tons, setting a new monthly record high and soaring by 98.45% year-on-year. In June 2025, the export of TDI was 48000 tons, an increase of 81.62% compared to the same period last year. Under the continuous growth of TDI production capacity in China, the contraction of production capacity in Europe and America, and the stimulation of tariff policies, TDI export market orders have surged. The second round of force majeure events in Germany’s Covestro will affect production capacity by 300000 tons, accounting for 55% of Europe’s total production capacity, which will further stimulate the growth of TDI exports.
Future forecast
As of now, the high price of TDI has exceeded 16000 yuan/ton. After multiple price jumps, some intermediaries have entered a state of closed trading and suspended reporting, and some have increased their willingness to ship. End users just need to buy, but placing high priced orders is not satisfactory. Considering the synchronous maintenance of multiple TDI devices and the fact that some of them still have maintenance plans in the future, the supply is expected to remain tight. It is expected that the TDI market will continue to rise in the short term, and we will closely monitor the changes in supply and demand in the future,
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