1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, this week (7.21-25), the PVC spot market broke away from the weak and volatile market, and made efforts to rise, with a strong upward trend. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in the East China market was 5024 yuan/ton, up 3.87% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Supply side: This week, the atmosphere of speculation in the PVC spot market has gradually strengthened, driven by the significant rise in the futures market, the spot market has continued to climb. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC production rate has remained stable this week, maintaining the previous level of production rate. The upward trend is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, the market has maintained a high trading volume recently, but the market is still in the stage of destocking, mainly due to the large amount of basic inventory in the market, and the current spot supply side remains abundant.
On the cost side: This week, the price of calcium carbide market has mainly fallen, and the market has entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the weekly decline of calcium carbide is 1.35%. From this, it can be seen that the cost side has not brought any impetus to PVC, and the increase in downstream procurement has a certain stimulating effect, which has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, there will be sufficient PVC supply, and the operating rate of manufacturers will remain at a high level. The inventory of enterprises is still generally high, and it needs to be continuously reduced in the later stage. The rebound of the short-term futures market is mainly due to the improvement of market sentiment and the driving force of the futures market, and the lack of sustained improvement in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.
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