Trade name: PC

Latest price (May 9): 22033.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: Recently, the domestic PC market continues to be weak, and the consolidation trend. In the upstream, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain. The international crude oil price continues to rise, the bisphenol a price is strong, and the PC cost side is still supported. In terms of supply, in the early stage, some enterprises had a low opening rate. At present, the supply of some brand products is still not loose. However, the positive effect of on-site supply is limited, and the follow-up of demand lags behind. Most downstream enterprises prepare goods with use and take to maintain production, and the future mentality of operators is not strong.

Future forecast: it is expected that the PC market may be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou increased this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 36500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 37333.33 yuan / ton on Saturday. The price increased by 2.28% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices rose this week. The overall market trading situation is acceptable. At the end of the May Day holiday, the downstream will take appropriate goods, mainly just in need. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly issue early orders, the spot supply is relatively tight, and the quotation is increased. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 37000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan is about 38000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 37000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, up to now, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 786 yuan / ton. Compared with May 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock is 763 yuan / ton), the price has increased by 23 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.15%. At present, the tight supply situation in the domestic phosphorus ore market continues, and the voice is mostly dominated on the supply side. The phosphorus ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market is mostly dominated by high-level consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In terms of coke, the coke market maintained a temporary stable operation this week. From April 29 to May 7, 2022, the price of Shanxi coke market was 3794 yuan / ton last weekend and 3794 yuan / ton this weekend, flat. Before that, coke went through a rise cycle of about two months, with a total of six rounds, with a cumulative rise of 1200 yuan / ton. With the support of better profits, the coking enterprises have started well in the near future. With the recovery of domestic automobile transportation and the return of freight to a reasonable range, the coking enterprises are actively shipping. At present, the coke inventory in the plant is low as a whole. In terms of demand, at present, the profits of steel mills are declining, and it is difficult for steel mills to bear the cost pressure brought by high price coke. After the festival, some steel mills in Shanxi and Hebei opened the first round of raising and reducing 200 yuan / ton. At present, according to market news, this round of raising and reducing is more likely to land. It is expected that the coke market will be dominated by weak operation in the future, and the future still needs to focus on the coke inventory, steel plant operation and transportation in all links.

In terms of phosphoric acid, up to now, the reference price of phosphoric acid is 10710 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.28% compared with May 1 (10680 yuan / ton). Phosphoric acid prices rose steadily this week. The May Day holiday has just ended, and the market wait-and-see mood is relatively strong. Due to the rise of yellow phosphorus price this week, it is expected that the phosphoric acid market will rise slightly in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency believes that on the whole, the spot is tight this week and the price of yellow phosphorus rises. The price of upstream phosphate rock increased, and the coke market was temporarily stable. The market price of downstream phosphoric acid is stable and rising. The upstream and downstream support is acceptable, and the yellow phosphorus price is expected to be strong in the short term.

Trade name: silica

Latest price (May 6): 6325.00 yuan / ton

As of May 6, the mainstream price of white carbon black is about 6325 yuan / ton, and the price is mainly stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed. The overall market is strong, the upstream price is higher, the downstream procurement is positive, the market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, and the white carbon black market is narrow and strong.

Future forecast: the white carbon black market is expected to be strong in the short term.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 462000 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 478000 yuan / ton

Analysis: after the May Day holiday, the price of lithium carbonate still fell slightly. Recently, some lithium salt manufacturers in the market have low transaction price and strong willingness to ship due to capital and shipping pressure. The price of lithium carbonate keeps falling, making the downstream still in a wait-and-see state and poor willingness to receive goods.

Forecast: with the end of the holiday, the downstream market may start the idea of reserve mining or a little zero order replenishment, the transaction activity may increase, and the short-term lithium carbonate price is expected to be stable and weak.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market fluctuated upward in April. As of April 29, the domestic market was 6427 yuan / ton, up 6.09% from the beginning of the month and 35.00% year-on-year.

In April, the restart and overhaul of domestic PTA units coexisted, and the operating load of corresponding PTA enterprises remained at a low level. The operating rate of PTA industry decreased from 74% at the beginning of the month to 67% and rebounded slightly to 73% at the end of the month. Overall, supply is still shrinking.

In the crude oil market, since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices have continued to fluctuate at a high level in anticipation of tightening supply. April was basically the logic of shock rise. According to the monitoring of business society, WTI crude oil rose by more than 5% as of April 28. Oil prices fluctuated above $100 on most trading days throughout April.

In April, the downstream polyester market was still weak, and many factories reduced production to near 77%. The product inventory accumulation and loss increase, and the factory shipment pressure is large. According to statistics, as of April 22, the inventory of POY, FDY, DTY and staple fiber was 32.3 days, 30.8 days, 36.4 days and 12.8 days respectively, all at the high level in recent years.

Insufficient follow-up of terminal demand and continued to purchase on demand. The startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms fell to a low level near 50% in the middle of the month, down about 35% compared with the same period last year. Towards the end of the month, with the gradual easing of the problem of poor logistics and the gradual resumption of work and production, the comprehensive startup rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang picked up slightly to 56%, and the demand side improved.

Business analysts believe that the cost side support is still there, and the expectation of a sharp decline in Russian oil sanctions in the future will be the main driving force for the rise in oil prices. In addition, under the background that PTA supply side is still limited, social inventory will further decline. At the same time, with the gradual control of the domestic epidemic in the terminal weaving industry, some enterprises have the action of replenishing orders and goods, and the demand side is expected to pick up. On the whole, the price focus of PTA in May is expected to rise further.