According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market fluctuated upward in April. As of April 29, the domestic market was 6427 yuan / ton, up 6.09% from the beginning of the month and 35.00% year-on-year.

In April, the restart and overhaul of domestic PTA units coexisted, and the operating load of corresponding PTA enterprises remained at a low level. The operating rate of PTA industry decreased from 74% at the beginning of the month to 67% and rebounded slightly to 73% at the end of the month. Overall, supply is still shrinking.

In the crude oil market, since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices have continued to fluctuate at a high level in anticipation of tightening supply. April was basically the logic of shock rise. According to the monitoring of business society, WTI crude oil rose by more than 5% as of April 28. Oil prices fluctuated above $100 on most trading days throughout April.

In April, the downstream polyester market was still weak, and many factories reduced production to near 77%. The product inventory accumulation and loss increase, and the factory shipment pressure is large. According to statistics, as of April 22, the inventory of POY, FDY, DTY and staple fiber was 32.3 days, 30.8 days, 36.4 days and 12.8 days respectively, all at the high level in recent years.

Insufficient follow-up of terminal demand and continued to purchase on demand. The startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms fell to a low level near 50% in the middle of the month, down about 35% compared with the same period last year. Towards the end of the month, with the gradual easing of the problem of poor logistics and the gradual resumption of work and production, the comprehensive startup rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang picked up slightly to 56%, and the demand side improved.

Business analysts believe that the cost side support is still there, and the expectation of a sharp decline in Russian oil sanctions in the future will be the main driving force for the rise in oil prices. In addition, under the background that PTA supply side is still limited, social inventory will further decline. At the same time, with the gradual control of the domestic epidemic in the terminal weaving industry, some enterprises have the action of replenishing orders and goods, and the demand side is expected to pick up. On the whole, the price focus of PTA in May is expected to rise further.

1、 Price data

As of April 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8133.33 yuan / ton, up 0.84% from 8065.75 yuan / ton on April 15. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8100-8200 yuan / ton.

As of April 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8020.00 yuan / ton, up 1.74% from 7882.50 yuan / ton on April 15. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 8000-8100 yuan / ton.

On April 29, the naphtha commodity index was 100.38, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.48% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 137.64% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In late April, the price of refined naphtha first rose and then fell. In the middle of April, the naphtha market was well traded, refineries actively pushed up, the demand for terminal olefins and reforming increased, and some enterprises began to stock up before the festival; At the end of the month, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal demand was not significantly good, the logistics recovered slowly, and the market transaction was general.

Upstream: under the background that international crude oil prices fluctuate and rise, and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disturb the market, it will aggravate the expectation of tightening oil supply in the future. In addition, in terms of other supply factors, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has continued the gradual and small increase in production policy, which will stabilize the tightening of crude oil supply, with little effect. The OPEC monthly meeting may be held on May 5. Considering the binding interests of OPEC and its Russian allies, the possibility of policy change is small. The market generally expects that there is a high possibility of a small increase in production in June. On the whole, the trend of crude oil prices rose in April.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene fell in late April. The price was 7220 yuan / ton on April 15 and 7320 yuan / ton on April 29, up 1.39%. The price of mixed xylene fell in late April. The price was 7200 yuan / ton on April 15 and 7330 yuan / ton on April 29, with a price increase of 1.81%. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene in late April was downward. The price was 9300 yuan / ton on April 15 and 8900 yuan / ton on April 29, with the price falling by 4.30%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the recent trading of naphtha market is general, and the demand for terminal olefins and reorganization is not significantly good. Some enterprises prepare goods before the festival, but the overall demand is general, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of domestic vitamin C was temporarily stable this week, and the average price of food grade vitamin C was 40 yuan / kg, with no rise or fall.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the purchase of vitamin C in the domestic market improved slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price of feed grade is 35-38 yuan / kg, and the mainstream price of feed grade is 38-40 yuan / kg. The factory continues to stop reporting, and the actual situation is a single discussion. The downstream rigid demand is the main thing, and the price negotiation is the main thing.

Upstream: the price of corn fluctuated higher. It is expected that most of the time in May, the price of corn in the main domestic production areas will continue to be stable and slightly strong, and it is very difficult for the price to fall substantially.

The price of vitamin A fell this week. The average price of feed grade vitamin A was 232 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 224 yuan / kg at the weekend, down 3.66%. The quotation in the European market is 63-68 euros / kg. Recently, the production and sales of the market are weak, and the price focus is downward.

The price of vitamin E decreased slightly this week. The average price of feed grade vitamin E was 92 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 91 yuan / kg at the weekend, a decrease of 1.26%. The European market quotation this week is 9.9-11.5 euros / kg. Recently, affected by the epidemic, the market supply has tightened, the market attention has increased, and the price has a strong upward trend.

Future forecast

The vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of the business community believes that: Overall, the demand is general, and the overall vitamin market is weak and difficult to change. In the future, pay close attention to the opening and parking status and delivery of enterprises.

Latest price (April 28): 8700 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on April 20, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8700 yuan / ton, down 0.11% from the previous trading day and 2.93% year-on-year. At present, the market trading is relatively flat, the enthusiasm of the downstream products industry to prepare goods before the festival is not high, and the raw material price is down, the cost side and demand side are both weak, the PVC price continues to decline, and the market transaction is dominated by negotiation. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 3900-4100 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8450-8950 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to weaken.

Latest price (April 27): 8710 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on April 27, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8710 yuan / ton, down 0.91% from the previous trading day and 2.55% year-on-year. At present, the market trading is relatively flat, the price of raw materials is down, the cost side and demand side are both weak, and the price of PVC manufacturers continues to fall. The actual transactions are mostly negotiation, and the industry is cautious. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 3900-4100 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8500-9000 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to adjust in a narrow range.