In December, the market of polybutadiene rubber fell first and then stabilized. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of cis polybutadiene rubber was 10580 yuan/ton as of December 30, down 3.73% from 10990 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, under the pressure of the supply side of cis polybutadiene rubber, the ex factory price of two barrels of oil of cis polybutadiene rubber was lowered, and the market price of cis polybutadiene rubber fell 4.73% within eight days. In the later period, as the price of cis polybutadiene rubber fell sharply, downstream inquiries increased, and the overall market was stable.
Supply side: the commencement of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in December was slightly higher than that in November, and the supply side was under pressure. According to the business agency, the high load or full load production of Shunding devices in Daqing, Sichuan, Maoming, Qixiang, and the restart of early maintenance devices such as Haopu still put pressure on the supply side of Shunding rubber.
Cost: butadiene prices rose sharply in December, while the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 30, the price of butadiene was 7241 yuan/ton, up 13.01% from 6407 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
In December, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated, which still supported cis polybutadiene rubber. As of December 30, the price was 12250 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from 12220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The monthly high point was 12520 yuan/ton, and the low point was 12160 yuan/ton. The early December coincided with traders and downstream factories preparing goods before the year. The domestic latex market experienced a process of firming up to stabilizing. In the month, the index of substitute rubber increased, and the import rubber continued to increase; In the later period, with the end of Chinese manufacturers’ stock up, the export price of Southeast Asian rubber stabilized until a small drop of two or three hundred yuan per ton. With the arrival of imported rubber from China’s main ports and the accumulation of social inventory, the price of China’s natural rubber market continues to fluctuate, with a slight weakening trend.
Demand side: In December, due to the further liberalization of epidemic prevention, the manufacturing industry in some domestic regions was impacted in the short term, the downstream tire enterprises started to decline, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber became weaker. According to the business community, the construction of all steel tires in Shandong will be less than 60%.
Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business community, the pressure on the supply side of cis polybutadiene rubber is still there, the cost side is higher, but the demand side is weak in the short term. If the demand side does not improve in the future, then cis polybutadiene rubber will continue to run weak in January.