On August 1, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate fell. Due to different production fuels, there was a large gap in manufacturers’ quotations. The mainstream of on-site negotiation was 4300-4700 yuan / ton, and the price quotation in Hebei was 4600-4700 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia in the upstream raw material market fell, the price of nitric acid fell, and the decline of raw material price had a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, but the sales of the downstream civil explosive industry came to an end, and the on-site supply of goods was normal recently, The market price of ammonium nitrate declined, and it is expected that the price will continue to decline in the later period. The market prices of ammonium nitrate in some parts of China are as follows:

Region, price (yuan / ton), rise and fall (yuan / ton)

Hebei, 4600-4700, -500

Henan, 4300-4400, -200

Shaanxi Province, 5000-5200, 0

Yunnan, 2900-3100, 0

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by business agency, the spot market price of PVC SG5 fell in July. The average price of domestic PVC was 7348.75 yuan / ton on July 1 and 6775.71 yuan / ton on July 30, with the price falling by 7.8% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the market price of PVC carbide SG5 first fell and then rose, with the overall price mainly falling. The spot price of PVC continued to fall in the first and middle of this month. Since late last decade, the futures market price has rebounded, and the atmosphere of the spot market has also improved, and the price has continued to rise. At present, PVC spot market confidence is good. Traders’ enthusiasm for taking goods is acceptable, and downstream manufacturers purchase on demand. As of the 30th, the quotation range of domestic PVC 5 electric stone is mostly around 6550-7000 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, international crude oil futures rose and fell on July 28. U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell, and the settlement price of the main contract was $96.42 / barrel, down $0.84 or 0.86%; Brent crude oil futures rose slightly, and the settlement price of the main contract was $101.83 / barrel, up $0.16 or 0.16%. Under the background of the global central bank raising interest rates, the expectation of economic recession may drag down the expected game between energy demand and supply tightening, and the oil price is deadlocked.

In terms of calcium carbide, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose first and then fell this month. This month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 3800.00 yuan / ton on July 1 to 3850.00 yuan / ton on July 6, up 1.32%, and then fell to 3816.67 yuan / ton on July 28, down 0.87%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 25.65% year-on-year. In the middle and early August, the calcium carbide market may decline slightly, mainly consolidation. The price of upstream raw material blue carbon has been adjusted at a low level recently, and calcium carbide cost support is insufficient. The downstream 1,4 butanediol and PVC market fell sharply, and the downstream demand weakened. In the aftermarket, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early August, mainly finishing.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of business club believe that the current rebound in PVC futures prices is good for the spot market, and the transaction is improving. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is improving, and the inventory is declining slightly. It is expected that the PVC market will be stable and positive in the short term.

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of Shandong isooctanol fell violently this month, from 8900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8166.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.24%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 56.25%.

On July 27, the isooctanol commodity index was 60.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.97% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 72.23% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Shandong isooctanol market in July

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers fell slightly this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory is general.

Insufficient upstream support and weak downstream demand

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market fell slightly this month. The propylene price fell from 7680.60 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7234.60 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.81%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.51% compared with the same period last year, and the cost support is insufficient. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly. The DOP price fell from 9550.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8875.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.07%, and a year-on-year decrease of 43.56% compared with the same period last year. The downstream market fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol weakened. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol this month.

Slightly volatile decline in the aftermarket

In the middle and early August, the domestic isooctanol market may decline slightly, mainly finishing. The upstream propylene price has fallen slightly recently, the cost support is insufficient, the downstream DOP market has fallen slightly, and there is still a downward trend at the end of the month. The downstream manufacturers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened, and the product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isooctanol analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate and decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in July, the polyester filament market remained volatile and fell. As of July 27, various products fell to varying degrees, including polyester FDY and polyester POY, which fell by 7.16% and 6.96% respectively, and polyester DTY fell by 4.48%.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament Market in July unit: yuan / ton

Products, 2022-07-01, 2022-07-27, rise and fall, year-on-year rise and fall

Polyester POY (150d/48f), 8616, 8016, -6.96%, 2.12%

Polyester FDY (150d/96f), 9221, 8561, -7.16%, 6.02%

Polyester DTY (150d/48f low elasticity), 9735, 9298, -4.48%, -2.19%

There was a reversal at the end of the month. With the red of raw materials, the market ushered in a bottoming rebound. Polyester mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-200 yuan / ton. However, the inventory is still at a historically high level. According to statistics, the average total inventory of polyester filament is 35.5 days, an increase of 15.4 days compared with the same period last year.

In July, the crude oil market was mainly affected by the strength of the US dollar, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increased the risk of economic recession; Superimposed on the repeated outbreaks in Asia, the possible blockade measures suppress demand, and the oil grid shocks weaken. As of July 26, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $94.98 / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $99.46 / barrel.

In terms of PTA, Hengli Dalian 2.5 million ton plant was overhauled on July 2, fuhaichuang 4.5 million ton plant was shut down in the evening of July 11, Ningbo Yisheng 2million ton plant is currently in shutdown state, Yadong Petrochemical 700000 ton plant load is 90%, and the restart time is to be determined. Baihong’s 2.5 million ton unit reduced its load to 80% and is expected to recover in one week. PTA operating rate remained low near 73%. In terms of price, the domestic PTA market fell first and then slightly recovered in July. As of July 27, the average market price was 6062 yuan / ton, down 8.27% from the beginning of the month and up 12.59% year-on-year.

At present, the industry is in the off-season, and the high-temperature power consumption in the south is at a peak. Some downstream enterprises in Zhejiang Province have received power rationing notices, intensifying the pressure on the demand side. At present, the startup rate of most weaving factories is low, and the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains around 50%. However, stimulated by the low price, there was a strong atmosphere of bottom hunting in terminal textile enterprises in late October, and the raw materials were concentrated until the end of the month. The order atmosphere improved slightly, but the overall range was not large.

Business analysts believe that on the raw material side, the wait-and-see sentiment in the oil market intensifies as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The spot of PTA supply side is still tight, and some PTA devices still have maintenance plans. Affected by the off-season, the demand side is expected to further reduce production. Without substantial improvement in demand, the price of polyester filament is still dominated by cost, and the rebound is unsustainable. It is expected that the price will continue to fall under pressure in August.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the month, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 7637.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 7275.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.75%. The current price increased by 28.08% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

In July, the domestic potassium nitrate Market showed an upward trend. From the above figure, we can see that the potassium nitrate Market has continued to rise since 2022, but the market began to fall this month. The main reason is that the supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal, and the price continues to fall. The supply of border trade goods has arrived one after another, and the supply of goods in the market is sufficient. The downstream demand is low, the market transaction is light, and the potassium nitrate Market is low. According to the statistics of business agency, the recent quotation of mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers is 7000-7500 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

The domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell in July. The source of border trade goods has arrived in Hong Kong one after another, and the market supply is sufficient. At present, the ex factory price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi potassium chloride distribution quotation is 5300 yuan / ton. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5250 yuan / ton. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton.

The price of potash fertilizer in the international market continues to decline, and the cost support is general. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly fall in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).