1、 Price data
As of November 27, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 7874.75 yuan/ton, down 3.02% from 8119.75 yuan/ton on November 21. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-8000 yuan/ton.
As of November 27, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 7554.00 yuan/ton, down 2.33% from 7734.00 yuan/ton on November 21. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 7500-7700 yuan/ton.
On November 27, the naphtha commodity index was 97.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.10% from the peak of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and up 130.09% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
The price of refined naphtha fell this week, and there was no obvious advantage in terminal ethylene and reforming. It was mainly purchased on demand, logistics was blocked in many places across the country, refineries reduced prices and shipped, and the market was mainly wait-and-see.
Upstream: International crude oil prices fell in shock. The inventory data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday was negative, and the inventory of refined oil increased more than expected. It was also reported that the Group of Seven considered that the price limit of Russian seaborne oil was higher than the price ceiling of the current market level, and the supply tightening concerns eased. Western countries have not reached an agreement on the upper limit of Russian oil price; The oil price continues to be under pressure due to overlapping demand concerns.
Downstream: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of toluene fell this week. On November 27, it was 7350 yuan/ton, and on November 21, it was 7440 yuan/ton, down 1.21%. The price of mixed xylene fell this week. On November 27, the price was 7840 yuan/ton, and on November 21, the price was 8100 yuan/ton, down 3.21% from last week. In terms of PX market, the price trend of this week was temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8600 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.
3、 Future market forecast
The energy analysts of the business agency believe that the international crude oil price fell in shock this week, and the cost support of the naphtha market is limited; There is no obvious advantage in terminal ethylene and reforming, and the procurement is mainly on demand. Logistics in many places across the country is blocked, refineries are active in shipping, and businesses are in a strong wait-and-see mood, and transactions are cautious. It is expected that the local refining naphtha will continue to decline in the near future.