According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of petroleum asphalt manufacturers in Shandong Province was 4262 yuan / ton on July 25, up 0.38% from the previous trading day and 27.35% year-on-year. On July 25, the closing price of 2209, the main contract of asphalt futures, was 4006 yuan / ton, up 2.59%.

In terms of spot goods, the quotations of some major manufacturers rose, and the overall shipment was supported. With the weather improving, the terminal demand increased.

The international crude oil price is weak and volatile, the asphalt high price transaction is limited, and the domestic asphalt market is mainly sorted out in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PTA market maintained a downward trend this week (July 18-22). As of July 22, the average price of domestic PTA market was 5810 yuan / ton, down 2.26% from the beginning of the week and up 8.36% year-on-year.

With the increase of two sets of 4.2 million ton PTA units in Yisheng Ningbo and two sets of 6.6 million ton PTA units in Yisheng new material to 90% of the load. Up to now, the operating load of PTA industry is more than 73%. The main suppliers of PTA sell spot goods, and the circulation volume has increased.

U.S. gasoline inventories increased. In addition, at the macro level, the European Central Bank raised interest rates, raising concerns about falling demand. Crude oil volatility weakened. As of July 21, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $96.35 / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of lunt crude oil futures was $103.86 / barrel.

Large factories plan to increase production reduction, and polyester load further drops to 76%. Superimposed on the impact of summer high temperature and sporadic epidemic, and the current off-season characteristics are obvious, terminal construction remains low, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms fall to less than 50%, and the market trading atmosphere is general.

Business analysts believe that the oil price fluctuated and fell, PTA costs continued to move down, the demand side performance was weak, and there is still room for polyester construction to be reduced. At the same time, PTA spot liquidity increased, and PTA prices are expected to enter a downward trend.

Summary of precious metal spot price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on July 21 was 4096.67 yuan / kg, down 6.72% from the average price of 4391.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 14.12%.

On July 21, the spot market price of gold was 371.95 yuan / g, a daily decrease of 0.18%, which was 4.71% lower than the early average price of 390.34 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.11%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Policy Overview

1. Domestic news

The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3 billion yuan on the 21st, with the bid winning interest rate of 2.10%, unchanged from the previous period. Due to the maturity of RMB 3billion reverse repurchase today, zero delivery and zero withdrawal were achieved on that day.

The latest loan market quotation rate (LPR) published by the National Interbank Funding Center authorized by the central bank remains unchanged for both 1-year and 5-year maturities.

2. International news

The Bank of Japan’s core inflation expectation for fiscal 2022 was 2.3% (previously 1.9%). The core inflation expectation in fy2024 was 1.3% (previously 1.1%); The Bank of Japan lowered its GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2022. GDP growth in fy2022 is expected to be 2.4% (previously 2.9%). GDP growth in fy2023 is expected to be 2.0% (previously 1.9%). GDP growth in fy2024 is expected to be 1.3% (previously 1.1%).

The chairman of RBA Lowe said that the inflation data in June rose further and is expected to rise again. The Committee expects that further interest rate hikes will be required in the coming months. The era of ultra-low interest rates in Australia has passed. He estimated that the neutral nominal interest rate is at least 2.5%. The Committee will continue to make decisions based on future data. But if the inflation rate is close to 6% or 7%, it will have to raise interest rates.

The annual rate of CPI in the UK recorded 9.4% in June, the highest since the data record was set in 1989; The monthly rate of UK retail price index in June was 0.9%, slightly higher than market expectations; The monthly PPI rate in Germany in June was 0.6%, far lower than expected; The current account of the euro zone decreased by € 4.489 billion after the quarter adjustment in May, while it decreased by € 5.8 billion in April.

Aftermarket forecast

In terms of international policy, the expectation that some central banks in the world will significantly raise interest rates and the monetary policy of major central banks as a whole will be tightened is intensifying. In particular, the Federal Reserve will control inflation by raising interest rates, and the price of interest-free asset precious metals is under pressure. Precious metal prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

The domestic phenol market continued to rise. The negotiation price in East China rose to 8950 yuan / ton from the low of 8350 yuan / ton last week. The unexpected shutdown of a factory at the beginning of the week boosted the market. In addition, the average price of contracts in the month was high, and the cost was high. The mood of shippers was strong. With the increase of downstream inquiries, the focus of negotiation was significantly improved, but the terminal was still dominated by rigid demand, some factories replenished appropriately, and the participation of intermediate traders was not large, Pay attention to the trading situation on the floor.

At the opening of the day, lihuayi increased by 300 to 9000 yuan / ton, which significantly boosted the market. It is expected that the domestic phenol market will continue to push up. It is expected that the East China market negotiation today will be 9100-9250 yuan / ton

Trade name: urea

Latest price (July 19):2637 yuan / ton

On July 19, the domestic comprehensive price of urea fell slightly, down 32 yuan / ton from July 18, a decrease of 1.20%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.14%. The upstream cost support is general, the downstream agricultural demand follows up on demand, and the industrial demand is mainly rigid demand. India released a new round of bidding information, boosting market confidence. During the overhaul of some manufacturers in Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Anhui, the daily output of urea decreased and the supply pressure eased.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price may rebound at the bottom, and the average market price is about 2680 yuan / ton.