According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of coking coal was consolidated this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2383.33 yuan/ton. On November 21, the average market price was 2383.33 yuan/ton, down 22.49% from the same period last year. On November 20, the energy index was 1139, unchanged from yesterday, down 27.03% from the highest point of 1561 (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 122.90% from the lowest point of 511 on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of production area, the price of coking coal runs at a high price, and the price of some kinds of coal rises slightly. The mentality of the mining area has improved. Downstream coke was temporarily stable after falling this week, and coke enterprises’ inventory generally declined. At present, the on-site inventory is generally low, coke enterprises’ mentality is stronger, and the profits of steel plants are still poor this week. However, near winter, the steel plants have certain winter storage plans, and their purchasing enthusiasm has been improved.

According to the coking coal analysts of the business community, the price of coking coal is operating at a high price, and the demand for coking coal in the downstream coke sector has increased recently. The steel plant has a certain winter storage plan, and the purchasing enthusiasm has improved. The coke enterprises have a good mentality, and the market sentiment has risen to a certain extent. In general, the price of coking coal is operating at a high price, and the downstream market demand is specific.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 22, the average price of domestic superior rubber grade white carbon black was 5750.00 yuan/ton, and the overall market was stable and strong, which was stable compared with the price of white carbon black in the same period last week.

The white carbon black market mainly operates stably, and the manufacturer mainly supplies contract customers. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is general, the readiness of goods is not strong, and the operating rate remains stable.

Chemical index: On November 21, the chemical index was 942 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 32.71% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 57.53% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The white carbon black analyst of the business community believes that the price of rubber grade white carbon black will remain around 6000 yuan/ton in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream market of neopentyl glycol in China dropped from 9666.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9200.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 4.83%. A year-on-year decrease of 51.75%. On November 20, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 44.18, down 0.16 points from yesterday, a record low in the cycle, and 57.36% from the peak of 103.61 on September 22, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of neopentyl glycol mainstream manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 6500.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6333.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decline of 2.56%. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of neopentyl glycol was negatively affected.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in late November may fluctuate slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market declined slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream paint market was in general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. The neopentyl glycol analysts of the business community believe that the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may fluctuate slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

Price trend

In the middle of November, the domestic ABS market was put into operation, and the price fluctuated slightly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic ABS was 12000 yuan/ton on November 13 and 12050 yuan/ton on November 19, with a weekly increase and decrease of+0.42%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, the three upstream materials of ABS rose in the second half of November and stabilized in the first half, showing a fair overall performance. Among them, the load of the acrylonitrile industry was low, and the supply side tightened to support the continuous rise of the market. Strong support for ABS cost side.

Butadiene market trend stopped falling. At the beginning of this week, the market took over the earlier market of strong supply and weak demand. At present, affected by the news of the maintenance of the Zhejiang Petrochemical plant, the merchants took the opportunity to raise their quotations. However, the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged, and the downstream rigid demand support is not strong, resulting in a limited rebound of butadiene.

In terms of styrene, this week’s narrow rise was followed by consolidation and operation, and the increase in export orders boosted the domestic market supply prices. However, the upstream crude oil and pure benzene markets fell, and the demand improvement was limited, which dragged down the future market of styrene.

In terms of supply: In the middle of November, the load of ABS industry was adjusted in a narrow range. At present, the commencement of the plant is maintained at more than 92%, unchanged from last week, and the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant. The inventory position decreased by 13000 tons compared with last week. At the same time, the enterprise’s cost side pressure increased, and the ex factory price increased, with an average increase of less than 100 yuan/ton.

Demand: At present, downstream factories, including the main terminal household appliances industry, are generally motivated to stock up, and the market trading is weak as a whole. The traditional peak demand season has ended, and the overall demand for support has dropped. Buyers have poor acceptance of the offer after the rise.

Future market forecast

This week, the three upstream materials of ABS will either rise or level, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant started at a high level, and the weekly output was stable. Fortunately, the operation of destocking was effective, and the pressure on the supply side was slightly relieved. The demand side has not improved, and the market is stronger in a narrow range under the long short game, but it is also difficult to rise further. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market will continue its narrow range consolidation operation.

Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market Price Trend

On November 17, the average price of polyformaldehyde production in Shandong was 5433.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week. It fell 23.11% year on year.

Chart of market price trend of methanol polyoxymethylene

Upstream methanol situation: The methanol market in East China is surging, and the coal price is strong to support the production cost. In terms of spot goods, the supply in the domestic mainland market increased, and the port market continued to de stock mainly. The atmosphere of the domestic methanol market is good. The quotation in some regions is adjusted in a narrow range, but the adjustment range is not large. The mainstream transaction is stable.

Recently, the methanol market has a volatile upward trend, with good cost support. However, the transportation in Shandong is not smooth, and the market turnover is poor. Polyformaldehyde analysts from the business community predict that the price may rise slightly.