On the 18th, the domestic NMP market price was temporarily stable, and the average price of the electronic grade market was 33000 yuan / ton, with no rise or fall compared with the previous day and a decrease of 2.22% compared with the 30th. Middlemen have a strong willingness to support prices, and downstream buyers are insufficient, mainly small orders. The cost of raw materials fell further, which dragged down the cost, and the NMP price was easy to fall but difficult to rise.

Upstream BDO: the focus of BDO market is down. At present, the market news is light, the downstream market is more wait-and-see, the demand follow-up is limited and the price is depressed. The holding manufacturers have insufficient confidence in trading, and the actual orders are negotiated for profit, and the focus is on the low end.

NMP analysts of business club believe that the NNP market is relatively strong, and the actual focus of negotiation has shifted downward. It is expected that the NMP market will be weak in the near future.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

This week, the domestic phenol market continued to fall, domestic factories made several adjustments, and the market continued to bottom out. As of the weekend, the mainstream offer of several major domestic factories was 8600-9400 yuan / ton, and the reference value negotiated in the East China market was 8300-8400 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the port stock increased to 38000 tons, and the pressure of early quotation and shipment from the cargo holders was great. The market fell due to the loss of profits. Recently, the theoretical losses of phenol and ketone enterprises have increased, and the terminal demand is expected to be difficult to improve. Considering the impact of cost and average price, it is expected that the short-term operation is still weak, and we should always pay attention to the trends of petrochemical enterprises on the site.

This week, the market and factory prices have been falling all the way, with obvious declines. Terminal enterprises have increased wait-and-see, and there is great pressure on shippers to continue to make profits. It is expected that there are still downward risks in the market opening next week. The mainstream offer in East China is 8200-8400 yuan / ton.

On July 15, phenol offers in various markets across the country were as follows (weekly rises and falls were calculated on the 7th):

Region, Quotation, Weekly rise and fall

East China, 8350., – one thousand and three hundred

Shandong region, 8750., – one thousand one hundred and fifty

Surrounding areas of Yanshan, 8770., – one thousand and two hundred

South China, 8450., – one thousand and three hundred

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong fell from 8900.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8666.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.62%, a year-on-year decrease of 45.03% over the same period last year. On July 10, the isooctanol commodity index was 63.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.65% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 81.31% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weak downstream demand

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers fell slightly this week: Jianlan chemical octanol plant is under maintenance; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 8600 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that of last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 8800 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7680.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7460.60 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.86%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.31% over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Judging from the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. The DOP price fell from 9550.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9375.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.83%, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.81%. Downstream DOP prices fell sharply, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol weakened.

The upstream support is insufficient, the downstream demand is weakened, and isooctanol is bearish in the future

In the middle of July, Shandong isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business society, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate and decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

On July 13, the average market price of 3128b lint was 17392 yuan / ton, down 0.95% from the previous trading day and up 3.98% year-on-year.

On July 13, the domestic cotton price index was 3128b, with an average price of 17408 yuan / ton, down 151 yuan / ton from the previous day. On the 13th, the State Reserve opened the first round of collection and storage, purchasing 5000 tons through the trading market, with a maximum price of 17550 yuan / ton (standard grade 3128b). The current cotton price trend is downward, and the collection and storage policy has a relatively limited role in supporting the bottom of cotton prices. Yesterday’s USDA July data reduced global consumption and increased ending inventory. Ice American cotton prices were under pressure to fall by the limit, while domestic Zheng cotton prices fell synchronously, falling below the 15000 mark. The psychological defense line of market participants’ continuous downward adjustment was broken one after another.

The downstream cotton yarn market has been dragged down by the falling cotton price, and the textile industry as a whole has encountered the problem of shortage of orders. Superimposed on the recent high-temperature power cuts in some areas, the number of textile enterprises that have holidays and downtime has increased, and the startup rate of yarn mills continues to decline. Due to large fluctuations in the price of raw materials, the quotation of some cotton mills was suspended. With the continuous decline of cotton prices, the confidence of the cotton textile market continued to decline, and there was a strong pessimistic atmosphere. The textile mills reported that the cotton continued to decline, resulting in a lack of follow-up orders, a decline in the grey cloth market, and an increase in the inventory of finished products of textile enterprises. At present, commodity prices are generally falling, and there is a lack of good news in the market. It is expected that cotton prices may still be weak.

On July 12, the quotation range of 1 × lead ingot in the domestic spot lead market was about 14850-14950 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14900 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

On the night of the 11th, the US dollar rose sharply, the crude oil price fell significantly, and the performance of the metal market last night was mixed. On the whole, it was more vulnerable, and the lead price trend was stronger. Lun lead and Shanghai lead rose more than 1% at night. Shanghai lead continued to rise in the morning, rising 1.52% as of the close. In terms of supply, the recent overhaul of the smelter was completed, the operating rate was increased, and the lead supply was restored. In terms of recycled lead, Anhui, the main production area, is limited, and the recent production is likely to decline, which is good for primary lead. The recent performance of the demand side is still off-season, but with the improvement of car sales, the recent start-up of battery enterprises has increased to a certain extent. Under the pattern of both supply and demand, it is expected that the lead price will be stable, medium and strong in the future.