Aluminum fluoride prices fluctuated and fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 26th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 9525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81% compared to the 9800 yuan/ton price on April 1st. Downstream demand has been weak due to rising costs, and aluminum fluoride prices have fluctuated and fallen in April.

Raw material prices stopped rising and stabilized in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 26th, the price of fluorite was 3075 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% compared to April 1st, which was 3037.50 yuan/ton; As of April 26th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10357.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.69% compared to the 9800 yuan/ton price on April 1st. The construction of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid enterprises is temporarily stable, with sufficient supply. In April, the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid stopped rising and stabilized, while the cost of aluminum fluoride stabilized. The support for the rise of aluminum fluoride still exists.

Yunnan faces power restrictions, resulting in a decrease in the production of electrolytic aluminum

The climate drought has led to a decrease in hydropower, and since mid February, Yunnan has been implementing “power rationing and production reduction”. Several electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan have limited production and reduced production. As of April, some electrolytic aluminum enterprises have reduced production by 40%. The expected decrease in electrolytic aluminum production and downstream demand for aluminum fluoride will increase the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at Business Society believe that in April, the prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid stopped rising and stabilized, while the cost of fluoride aluminum raw materials stopped rising and stabilized; Yunnan has limited electricity, resulting in a decrease in electrolytic aluminum production, weak downstream market for aluminum fluoride, and poor demand for aluminum fluoride. In the future, the demand for aluminum fluoride to stop rising costs is not good, and it is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will stabilize strongly in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 22, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5618.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 0.35% from the price of 5638.00 yuan/ton on April 17.

On April 22, the fuel oil commodity index was 113.78, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 16.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 136.91 points (2022-11-17), and an increase of 146.92% from the lowest point of 46.08 points on August 15, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

The international crude oil market is fluctuating downward, and the cost support for ship fuel market is limited. According to Business News, as of April 22, the self extracting low sulfur quotation for fuel oil in Zhoushan area of China National Combustion Corporation was 5600 yuan/ton for 180cst, and 5700 yuan/ton for 120cst; The quotation for 180 cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in the Shanghai region of China National Combustion Corporation is 5500 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 120 cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5600 yuan/ton.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and fell. Recently, the market was worried about the performance of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. The strengthening of the US dollar suppressed oil prices. In addition, the increase in the US crude oil inventory depressed the market, and the crude oil market price trend fell back.

Singapore’s reduced fuel inventory has supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Authority (ESG): As of the week ending April 19, Singapore’s fuel inventory decreased by 5000 barrels to a three week low of 23.519 million barrels; Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory decreased by 752000 barrels to a seven week low of 8.062 million barrels; Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory decreased by 924000 barrels to a two-week low of 15.015 million barrels.

Future forecast: International crude oil prices are fluctuating downward, and the domestic ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment; At present, the terminal demand in the shipping market is weak, with limited replenishment capacity and poor delivery; Downstream and intermediaries in the ship fuel market have a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with light market transactions and cautious entry. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 5500-5600 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 5600-5700 yuan/ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 3450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3400.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.45%. On April 23, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 107.94, an increase of 1.59 points from yesterday, a decrease of 38.18% from the highest point of 174.60 points in the cycle (2022-06-21), and an increase of 85.30% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have slightly decreased The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3150-3300 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2800-2900 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate has slightly decreased this week, from 8840.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8700.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.58%. The weekend price has decreased by 4.04% compared to the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, from 5575.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5500.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.35%. The weekend price decreased by 21.99% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late April, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. International potassium fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid price has temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 198.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices have decreased by 36.13% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 22, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 52.11, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.21% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 189.82% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support, weakened downstream procurement

From the supply side, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price was temporarily stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine has significantly declined, and cost support is insufficient. The price of downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly, from 1828.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1800.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.57%. On weekends, prices have decreased by 22.46% compared to the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride fell sharply, from 958.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 905.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.61%. Overall, upstream support is insufficient and downstream demand is weakening.

Future Market Forecast

In late April, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The upstream liquid chlorine market has significantly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that hydrochloric acid has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 19, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1106 yuan/ton; Compared to April 15, 2023, the price remained basically unchanged; Compared to April 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate rock is 1118 yuan/ton), the price has been reduced by 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.07%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (4.15-4.19), the overall domestic phosphorus ore market remained stable and consolidated. In early April, due to the low start of downstream yellow phosphorus production, the weak operation of yellow phosphorus from bottom to top affected the atmosphere in the phosphate ore field, and the market situation of some areas of the domestic phosphate ore market adjusted downward. Entering this week, the domestic phosphorus ore market resumed its overall decline and then operated steadily. The supply of phosphorus ore in the market was still tight, supporting the market’s overall stability. As of April 19, the domestic 30% grade phosphorus ore market price was around 1050-1150 yuan/ton, and the 28% grade phosphorus ore price was around 960-990 yuan/ton. The reference price for 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1180-1220 yuan/ton. There are also differences between the specific price and factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to lump ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated through actual orders.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the downstream phosphate fertilizer market for phosphate ore is still trading well. In addition, with the warming weather and the traditional peak season at the terminals, the phosphate ore industry has a good mentality. The phosphate ore data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly be stable and subject to small fluctuations, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.