On July 6, the mainstream quotation range of 1 × tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 189000-194000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 191500 yuan / ton, down 12250 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

On the night of the 5th, the US dollar hit another 20-year high, non-ferrous metals fell across the board under pressure, and Shanghai tin closed down 5.34%. From the fundamental point of view, the current downstream demand performance is general, and the overall market performance is weak. Although the tin price has been declining, there is no sign of demand improvement in the downstream, and the purchase on demand is still maintained. It is expected that the future market will continue to be under pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium on June 1 was 4266 yuan / ton, and the average market price of powdered monoammonium on June 30 was 4666 yuan / ton. The price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 9.37% this month.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4200 yuan / ton on June 1 and 4366 yuan / ton on June 30. The price of diammonium phosphate rose 3.97% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise at a high level this month. In early June, due to the shortage of raw phosphorus ore, the price rose, and the price of monoammonium phosphate rose again under cost pressure. The manufacturer’s inventory is tight, there is no sales pressure for the time being, and the downstream is cautious in purchasing. The quotation of some enterprises was suspended and the receipt of orders was restricted. Since mid June, the rise of monoammonium phosphate has been suspended. The price of raw sulfur and synthetic ammonia fell, and the cost support weakened. In late June, the raw sulfur continued to decline, and the price of monoammonium phosphate began to loosen and fell slightly. As of June 30, the ex factory quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan is about 4700 yuan / ton, the market quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 4550 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Anhui is about 4750 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

The price of diammonium phosphate continued to rise at a high level this month. In the first half of June, the domestic market spot of diammonium chloride was relatively small, and the downstream purchase was on demand, and there was still resistance to high prices. Most manufacturers suspended their quotation and restricted the receipt of orders. They mainly issued early orders, and the quotation of dealers increased. In the second half of June, the supply of raw phosphate rock was in short supply, the price continued to run at a high level, and diammonium phosphate continued to rise. Downstream procurement is cautious, domestic demand is weakened, the focus is shifted to the export market, and dealers are cautious to wait and see. As of June 30, the market quotation of 64% diammonium in Guizhou was about 4700 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of 64% diammonium in Yunnan was about 4700 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

The price of raw phosphate rock rose this month. The market price of 30% phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 1066 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% phosphorus ore is around 920-970 yuan / ton. At present, a mining enterprise in Guizhou has resumed construction, with only a small amount of goods for external sales. Some mining enterprises in Guangxi mainly receive orders in advance, and the orders are scheduled to the middle of July. Recently, phosphorus ore of Hebei mining enterprises is mainly supplied to shareholders and customers, and there is no external supply source for the time being.

The price of raw sulfur fell this month. The domestic sulfur quotation is on the high side, and there is resistance in the downstream. Some operators buy at a low price when entering the market, and the pressure of high price sulfur increases. In addition, the downstream sulfuric acid market is weak, and the demand is limited. The negative purchasing sentiment in the market led to an increase in the inventory of sulfur refineries. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, domestic refineries lowered their quotations, and the overall market atmosphere was weak.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analyst of business agency, the supply of ammonium phosphate raw material phosphate rock is tight recently, the price of raw sulfur is reduced, and the cost pressure is weakened. The market is in the off-season of phosphate fertilizer demand, with weak demand side and weak trading on the floor. It is expected that the high price of ammonium phosphate will run downward in the short term.

1、 Price summary on July 1:

Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company quoted 8750 yuan / ton, Qilu Petrochemical Company quoted 8750 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 9000 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 9000 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery quoted 9000 yuan / ton,

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, many oil fields in Libya suffered from force majeure, and the oil supply fell sharply, adding to market concerns about the insufficient production capacity of opec+, and the international oil price rose last Friday.

Sinopec East China toluene cut 150 yuan / ton today.

The rise of crude oil has certain support for the market, but there is no good news on the demand side, and toluene is weak and volatile.

From June 24 to July 1, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China rose, with the price at 81750 yuan / ton last weekend and 83250 yuan / ton this weekend, up 1.83%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of the antimony ingot Market around the Spring Festival, entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, slowed down at the end of April, stabilized in May, and entered an upward channel in June.

Price of antimony, a strategic small metal in Europe this week (unit: USD / ton)

varieties., June 24, July 1, Up and down

European small metal antimony, 14000.,14300.,+ three hundred

The price of antimony, a strategic small metal in Europe, rose this week, reaching US $14300 / ton on July 1. The price rose slightly this week, and the overall market trading improved compared with the previous period.

The price of antimony ingots continued to rise this week, rising for two consecutive days during the week. At present, the sales of antimony oxide in the downstream has improved, there is a certain purchase demand for antimony ingots, the overall performance of the industrial chain is good, and the antimony ingot manufacturers have a strong attitude of supporting prices. The supply of antimony ore is still tight, and the supply is slightly tight, which once again boosts the market mentality. On the whole, in the current tight supply and good demand environment, it is expected that the price of antimony ingots will gradually pick up in the future, with a certain upward space.

Price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan / ton)

varieties., June 24, July 1, Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide, 69500.,71500.,+ two hundred

99.8% antimony trioxide, 71500.,73500.,+ two hundred

This week, the domestic antimony oxide market price continued to pick up. Recently, antimony oxide inventory has declined to a certain extent, with good sales. Enterprises have a certain demand for antimony ingots.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of June 28, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 18600.00 yuan / ton, down 0.53% compared with the price on June 1, down 1.93% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and up 42.35% compared with the same period last year.

The epichlorohydrin market fell slightly in June. In the first half of the month, the raw material propylene fell, the cost support of propylene method was weak, the price of raw glycerol was high, the cost pressure of glycerol method remained, the enterprise inventory pressure was controllable, the downstream demand was light, the demand support was weak, and the market atmosphere was weak. In the second half of the month, the prices of raw propylene and glycerin were both down, the cost support was down, some units were shut down for maintenance, the market supply was reduced, but the demand side was poor, and the market high-end negotiations were weak. With the impact of the news of the restart of some units, the market mentality was under pressure, the holders offered to ship at a profit, and the weakness of cyclopropane continued.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, on June 28, the reference price of propylene was 7738.25, a decrease of 4.24% compared with June 1 (8080.60).

Downstream epoxy resin, liquid epoxy resin. On June 27, the reference price of East China liquid epoxy resin was 21200-22000 yuan / ton of purified water. The profit bottoms out, and the factory faces the risk of loss. However, at present, the downstream demand is still sluggish. Although the cargo holders continue to make profits, the terminal demand is still difficult to improve.

The epichlorohydrin analyst of business club believes that at present, the cost side support is general, the demand side is light, the supply and demand support is weak, and the market atmosphere is depressed. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.