According to the bulk list data of business society, as of June 29, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 13933.33 yuan / ton, down 4.35% compared with June 1, down 8.93% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and up 24.04% compared with the same period last year.

The acrylic acid market fell in June. In the first half of the month, the raw propylene market was weak, with limited cost support. Some early maintenance devices were opened one after another, with an increase in the operating rate. Downstream procurement was just in demand. The enthusiasm for inquiry was average, the demand side performance was light, and the market atmosphere was weak. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene market declined, the cost support weakened, the acrylic acid operating rate increased slightly, some enterprises were expected to overhaul their devices, the downstream operation was stable, the purchasing enthusiasm was general, the market mentality was different, and the trading atmosphere was light and stalemate.

The upstream propylene, according to the monitoring data of business news agency, the reference price of propylene was 7738.25 on June 28, a decrease of 4.24% compared with June 1 (8080.60).

According to the acrylic acid analysts of business club, the current cost support is limited, and some devices on the supply side are overhauled, but the downstream buying enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be in a stalemate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the changes in market news.

On June 28, the rare earth index was 846 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 15.99% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 212.18% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index declined slightly. The prices of some light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium Series in China declined. The prices of praseodymium and neodymium oxides declined by 932500 yuan / ton to 1140000 yuan / ton, praseodymium oxide by 967500 yuan / ton, neodymium oxide by 975000 yuan / ton, gold praseodymium by 1245000 yuan / ton, metal neodymium by 119500 yuan / ton, and dysprosium oxide by 5000 yuan / ton to 2510000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 2.5 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal fell by 25000 yuan / ton to 3.24 million yuan / ton, the domestic light rare earth market price fell slightly, the recent procurement was average, the dysprosium series price trend in the domestic heavy rare earth market fell, the terbium series price fell, and the downstream purchase was mainly based on demand. Myanmar banned exports, and it is expected that the domestic rare earth market price will decline slightly in the later period.

On the cost side, crude oil rebounded last Friday, and pure benzene in the external market fell slightly; East China port inventory continued to increase. The price of pure benzene in Shandong rebounded slightly due to the demand for air supply in the lower reaches at the end of the month. Today, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 9600 yuan / ton, narrowing the price difference with local refining enterprises. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 9300-9600 yuan / ton.

The inventory of some factories in East China is under pressure, and the price is reduced slightly. The inventory level of enterprises in the north is normal, and the price is stable. Today, the price in Shandong is 11700-11900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in East China is 12300-12500 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, pure benzene continued to decline this week. On June 17, the price of pure benzene was 9400-10000 yuan / ton (the average price was 9884 yuan / ton). On Friday (June 24), the price of pure benzene was 9200-9800 yuan / ton (the average price was 9559 yuan / ton). The average price was 3.29% lower than last week and 20.84% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil weakened, pure benzene in the external market continued to decline, and the support of external news was weak. Domestic pure benzene port inventory continues to increase and supply increases. However, the downstream products suffered a loss in profits, and some units shut down with reduced economy, weakening demand. This week, pure benzene continued to decline, the price difference between SINOPEC pure benzene and local refining enterprises widened, and the prices of Sinopec plants in Shandong and Hebei fell significantly affected by the northern market.

This week, Sinopec reduced the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 9800 yuan / ton (the price of pure benzene in some factories in North China was reduced to 9450 yuan / ton).

In terms of the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market this week continued a broad downward trend. On Thursday (June 23), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1237 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $107 / ton, or 7.96%; The reference import price in East China was US $1245 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of US $95 / ton, or 7.09%.

In terms of crude oil, the expectation of tight global oil supply still exists, but the market is worried that the expectation of the Federal Reserve to significantly raise interest rates may lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, and crude oil fell this week. As of June 24, Brent’s price was flat this week compared with last week; WTI fell $1.94/barrel, or 1.77%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell after rising this week. On June 17, the price was 10900 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 10679 yuan / ton, down 2.03% from last week and up 17.35% from the same period last year.

Aniline: this week, aniline is stable and small. On June 24, the price in Shandong was 11700-11900 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.21% over last week and an increase of 16.4% over the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, crude oil is playing a long and short game. The expectation of tight supply and demand growth give support to the oil price. The expectation of interest rate hikes in many countries drag down the economy, but the short-term oil price is still high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the purchasing sentiment in the downstream is general, most of them are wait-and-see, and it is expected that the styrene market will fall in the short term.

There is still a possibility of downward movement in the external market. The domestic pure benzene supply increases, the downstream demand weakens, and the pure benzene market sentiment is empty, so there is still a possibility of downward movement. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic butadiene production enterprises was 11224 yuan / ton on June 23, up 10.90% month on month and 27.15% year on year. In terms of market price, the mainstream transaction price of butadiene in East China is 11250 yuan / ton; The mainstream transaction price of butadiene in central Shandong is 11350 yuan / ton. The supply side has been supplemented to a certain extent, the demand has remained relatively weak, the market lacks the ability to continue to move, and the short-term market is dominated by shock consolidation.