In November, domestic cobalt prices fell in shock
According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the average domestic cobalt price was 334600 yuan/ton, down 2.36% from 342700 yuan/ton on November 1; Compared with the cobalt price of 348300 yuan/ton on October 30, it decreased by 3.93%. In November, the domestic cobalt price fell in N-type weakness.
The mobile phone market is not prosperous in the Christmas season
South Korean mobile phone giant Samsung cut its smartphone production in Vietnam for the second time this year, which is in sharp contrast to the traditional sales peak season before Christmas. During the period from October to November, Samsung plans to produce only 34 million smartphones. For the sales season before Christmas, there has been a sharp drop compared with the same period of previous years. Samsung also lowered its annual total smartphone production target from 334 million to 270 million to 280 million, and its shipment target from 300 million to 260 million. The annual shipment in 2022 is expected to be 13.3% lower than the mid year estimate. Samsung’s smartphone shipments decreased, mainly due to the compression of the European and American consumer markets. Mobile phone market consumption is weak, Christmas consumption season is not strong, and cobalt market demand is weak.
Ternary battery output and installed capacity
It can be seen from the chart of installed capacity and output of ternary batteries that in October, the output of ternary batteries in China was 24.2 GWh, accounting for 38.6% of the total output, with a year-on-year growth of 163.5% and a month on month decline of 0.2%; The loading of ternary batteries was 10.8GWh, accounting for 35.4% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 55.2% and a month on month decrease of 3.5%; In October, the installed capacity and output of ternary batteries both declined month on month, the proportion of ternary batteries shrank, and the demand for cobalt market weakened.
The import of cobalt raw materials decreased sharply month on month
It can be seen from the data map released by the General Administration of Customs that in October 2022, China’s cobalt raw material imports totaled 7600 tons of metal tons, a sharp decrease of 28% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 41%. From January to October 2022, China’s cobalt raw material imports totaled 84900 tons of metal, up year-on-year. The import of cobalt raw materials increased year on year, and the supply of cobalt was sufficient. In October, the import volume of cobalt raw materials fell sharply on a month on month basis, the supply of cobalt market decreased on a month on month basis, and the price of cobalt was driven up.
Overview and prospect
Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst from the business community, believes that in terms of demand, the consumption of mobile phone market is weak, the demand for ternary batteries is shrinking, and the demand for national storage information in the middle of the year is rising in the short term; In terms of supply, the import volume of cobalt raw materials rose, and the supply of cobalt market was sufficient. In the future, the supply of cobalt market is sufficient and the demand is weak. It is expected that the weak shocks in the future cobalt market will stabilize.