Recently, the price of ethylene glycol has been high, and the operating rate of domestic facilities has increased. Under the increase in supply, the ethylene glycol market has fluctuated at a high level and adjusted weakly. On September 8th, mainstream spot prices in East China closed at 9750 yuan/ton,+15 yuan/ton; The spot price in South China closed at 9350 yuan/ton, -10 yuan/ton.
Supply side: Imports are unknown due to the situation in the Middle East and passage through the strait; Negotiations on the expected resumption of supply for Taiwan’s facilities in September; Domestic equipment increased its load due to improved efficiency and was sold to the market, resulting in an overall increase in supply in September. According to statistics, as of September 7th, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 3300 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous cycle. This cycle (September 8-14), Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol plans to ship 3130 tons, including South Asian cargo and ocean freight; There are no domestic products this week.
Demand side: Polyester load continues to weaken, dropping to around 75%; UPR construction is hovering around 30%, pay attention to the follow-up of terminal replenishment. According to statistics, as of September 3rd, the average weekly operating rate of unsaturated resin factories in China was 32.5%, and the overall capacity utilization rate decreased compared to the previous cycle. In terms of dock shipments, from August 31st to September 6th, the total amount of shipments from the main ports in East China, Changjiang International and Fubao Warehouse, was 1346 tons, with an average daily shipment of about 192 tons; On September 7th, a total of 66 tons were shipped from the two storage areas in Zhangjiagang, a decrease of 126 tons compared to last Sunday’s average shipment.
Cost wise: The instability of the US Iran situation continues, supply risk concerns remain difficult to eliminate, and international oil prices have risen.
Market expectation: In the short term, the situation between the US and Iran has reversed, and crude oil has driven EG to be stronger. However, with the backdrop of negative domestic equipment (including Taiwan), supply expectations are gradually easing, and short-term prices are shifting from macro expectations to fundamentals. The market is mainly focused on reducing holdings and premiums, and price expectations are adjusted weakly.
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